A strategic tilt towards Armenia amid South Caucasus tensions US aid and military support

This week, the United States Senate Committee on Appropriations approved several measures, including a bill for foreign operations funding for the 2025 fiscal year, which includes $65 million in aid for Armenia, according to the Armenian Assembly of America. The funds are purportedly intended for reforms and Euro-Atlantic integration.

The bill also states that the Committee supports efforts to achieve a durable peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It directs the Secretary of State and the USAID Administrator to consider the status of these negotiations when allocating the funds provided under this act.

Mariam Khaloyan, Armenian Assembly Congressional Relations Director, has painted the American aid in distinctly anti-Azerbaijani terms, stating: “The allocation of at least $65 million in aid to Armenia is crucial as Armenia continues to address major issues following the 2020 war and the influx of over 100,000 Armenians into Artsakh, who were displaced from their homeland due to Azerbaijan’s genocidal policies.”

However, are Americans themselves far from such an interpretation, even if they do not state it explicitly? Let's recall that this April, Secretary of State Antony Blinken attended a meeting in Brussels where the US and the EU committed to providing comprehensive assistance to Armenia. The text of the joint statement subtly indicated that this program might include a military component. The statement also contained a blatant manipulation, referring to Armenians who voluntarily moved from Azerbaijan to Armenia in September 2023 as “internally displaced persons”. At that time, Blinken announced that the US plans to provide more than $65 million in aid, stating that “this is more than a 50 per cent increase compared to two years ago”.

Following the successful anti-terrorism measures of September 19–20, there has been an increase in Western, particularly American, support for Armenia. This includes frequent visits to Yerevan by US diplomats, such as Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O’Brien, and Senior Advisor for Caucasus Negotiations Louis Bono. This recent American activity is aimed at pressuring Baku to remove from Armenian legislation any provisions containing territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Washington aims to involve Armenia in regional projects without requiring it to commit to respecting the territorial integrity of its neighbors.

Actully, Azerbaijan cannot agree to these conditions, which explains the increasingly ultimatum tone in statements from American officials.

For instance, James O’Brien stated in an interview with the Armenian radio station Radio Liberty that there would be an independent investigation into the circumstances surrounding the relocation of Armenians from Azerbaijan to Armenia. Almost simultaneously, a report by the Freedom House, the US “human rights” organization accused Azerbaijan of “ethnic cleansing” of Armenians.

Earlier, the US State Department included Azerbaijan in its list of “countries of particular concern” in a special report on religious freedom.

Additionally, Under Secretary of State for Civilian Security, Democracy, and Human Rights Uzra Zeya, who recently visited Armenia, made ambiguous comments regarding the voluntary relocation of Armenians from Azerbaijan to Armenia in September 2023. Furthermore, she announced that the US Army representative will start working at the Armenian Ministry of Defence.

Adding to this is the recent completion of joint US-Armenian military exercises, which marks an unprecedented tilt of American support towards Armenia.

This asymmetry in the US' approach to the two countries demonstrates a lack of interest in establishing a fair peace and stability in the South Caucasus. On the contrary, it appears that the United States is contributing to the maintenance and growth of revanchist sentiments within Armenian society. The Armenian people, once again in their history, are becoming the target of external manipulations aimed at nurturing a troublesome entity that ultimately causes trouble for everyone and ends up suffering the most.

However, there is a more pragmatic explanation for the situation. The Democratic administration in the US is working hard to secure the votes of the Armenian diaspora in America. Experience shows that, after winning elections with the support of Armenians, Democrats often become less proactive in prioritizing Armenian interests during the early years of their term. They tend to act in a more pragmatic manner and only revisit Armenian issues closer to the next election. Nonetheless, as in other cases, this situation seems not to teach Armenians any new lessons.