Armenia seeks security under Madame Pelosi's umbrella What will the northern overlord say?

Armenia has definitively decided to change its pro-Russian orientation to pro-Western. This is demonstrated by the increasingly frequent visits of Armenian politicians to the US and France and the obvious flirting of the Armenian leadership with the West which has become an indispensable element of the state policy of Yerevan.

In this context, the recent "working visit" of Armenian Defence Minister Suren Papikyan to the United States was also noteworthy and, as expected, did not go unnoticed by the Russian expert community. In Moscow, Papikyan's tour to the US was seen as yet another act of ingratiating Armenia with the West, which is certainly true.

In any case, some Russian experts believe that the aggravation on the Azerbaijani border was beneficial for the US and do not rule out that the White House "found arguments to persuade" Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to launch a provocation against Baku. Igor Korotchenko, a political analyst and editor-in-chief of the National Defence magazine, said that the United States was interested in the escalation of the situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. "Shortly before the provocation, Armenian Defence Minister Suren Papikyan visited the United States. Coincidence? I don't think so!" he said.

Consequently, the fact that Papikyan's visit to the US took place shortly before the outbreak of the September hostilities is fully consistent with the expert forecasts voiced. Interestingly, sceptical views on Papikyan's visit were also voiced in Armenia itself. According to military expert Karen Hovhannisyan, more promises are expected from the defence minister's visit to Washington. In an interview with an Armenian newspaper, the expert voiced the risks of possible military cooperation between Armenia and the US, among other things, which indirectly indicates that at least some members of the Armenian expert community are aware that the American scenario, supported by Yerevan's foreign policy team, is fraught with many pitfalls for Armenia.

Meanwhile, judging by the reactions of representatives of the Armenian political establishment, the Armenian authorities are ready to implement the American action plan. Such a conclusion emerges from recent statements by Armenian officials. In particular, the speaker of the Armenian parliament, Alain Simonyan, expressed dissatisfaction with the reactions of Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in connection with the latest aggravation on the border with Azerbaijan and Yerevan's appeal in this regard. Simonyan brazenly claimed on Azerbaijani public television that the expectations of Armenians are not being met, saying that being in constant contact with the people, he will have difficulty explaining why CSTO does not undertake the measures prescribed by its charter. However, he omitted to mention that Yerevan still expects a reciprocal response from CSTO, recalling that Armenia and Russia have an agreement on friendship and mutual assistance and the Armenian side expects more actions, rather than statements. There is more to come. In the end, Simonyan made an indignant speech about the provocative statements against the Armenian authorities on Russian TV channels. In a similar context the day before, the Secretary of Armenia's Security Council Armen Grigoryan, well-known for his provocative statements against Azerbaijan, voiced Yerevan's demands for military and political aid from the CSTO in an interview with Radio Liberty, arguing that CSTO military and political aid is allegedly needed to protect Armenian sovereignty and ensure that the Azerbaijani Armed Forces withdraw from the "sovereign" territory of Armenia.

Therefore, the fact that Papikyan's visit to the US occurred shortly before the September hostilities is fully consistent with the expert forecasts. Interestingly, sceptical views on Papikyan's visit were voiced in Armenia itself. According to military expert Karen Hovhannisyan, more promises are expected from the defence minister's visit to Washington. In an interview with an Armenian newspaper, the expert voiced the risks of possible military cooperation between Armenia and the US, among other things, which indirectly indicates that at least some in the Armenian expert community are aware that the American scenario, supported by Yerevan's foreign policy representatives, is fraught with many pitfalls for Armenia.

In a similar context, the Secretary of Armenia's Security Council Armen Grigoryan, notorious for his provocative statements against Azerbaijan, voiced Yerevan's demands for military and political aid from the CSTO in an interview with Radio Liberty the previous day, arguing that CSTO military and political aid was allegedly needed to protect Armenian sovereignty and ensure that Azerbaijani armed forces withdraw from "sovereign" Armenian territory.

It is therefore clear that the Armenian authorities are already persistently probing the ground for the implementation of the Western plan of action, using all methods of pressure on Russia, including political blackmail. Therefore, a powerful outburst of anti-Russian sentiments in Yerevan is likely to take place in the near future. Unlike the previous anti-Russian marches held in the streets of Yerevan from time to time, the current ones are likely to be specifically aimed at the withdrawal of Russian bases from Armenia and the deployment of American units both inside the country and in the part of Karabakh which is in the zone of temporary responsibility of the Russian peacekeeping contingent.

It seems that Armenia is seriously counting on this complex scenario to play out and is ready to hand the keys to the gates of Yerevan into the hands of the Americans as early as today. This is especially evident against the background of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Yerevan, known for her pro-Armenian views. Therefore, Pelosi's visit to Armenia signifies the support and solidarity of the American foreign policy toward Yerevan. It is also reported that the US politician is accompanied by Jackie Speier, a member of the House of Representatives, who is also one of the officials of Armenian origin in the US Congress.

According to reports in the Yerevan media, Armenia is greatly encouraged by the visit and has high hopes for it. Pelosi's visit is undoubted of particular relevance to Pashinyan, especially now that he is caught between a rock and a hard place, opting for the West and blatantly ignoring Russia. It is possible that Pashinyan refused to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Samarkand mainly because he was afraid of meeting with President Putin. At the moment, the Armenian prime minister, who has actually turned towards the Western flank and the US, has no solid arguments to appeal to his Russian counterpart. Pashinyan knows that the Kremlin is well aware of the Armenian leadership's intentions against the Russian policy and that he will have to answer for it. For its part, Russia, which for years has turned a blind eye to the flirting of Armenia's leaders with the West, in November 2020 during the 44-day war in Karabakh openly demonstrated to Yerevan its vision for the resolution of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations by supporting the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. It was a tough lesson for Armenia and a warning message that looking back to the West should be stopped. But Yerevan appears to have opted for the United States, finally betraying the interests of its closest ally, Russia, whose outpost Armenia has been throughout its 30-year existence.

Pashinyan probably understands that he cannot get away with betraying Russian interests. Therefore, in this complex track of Armenian-Russian relations, Pelosi's arrival in Yerevan will largely clarify how soon the final breakdown in relations between Moscow and Yerevan will come.