Middle East fires dim, Armenia’s coup claims heat up Caliber.Az weekly review

The Caliber.Az editorial team presents a new episode of the program “Sobitiya” (Events) with Murad Abiyev, covering the week’s top news stories related to Azerbaijan and beyond.

Middle East 

The war between Israel and Iran has been declared over — by none other than U.S. President Donald Trump. After taking two weeks to deliberate on whether to intervene in the conflict, Trump shocked the world by launching bombs and missiles at Iran’s nuclear facilities in the early hours of June 22.

The most dramatic part of the operation was the transoceanic flight of the legendary B-2 bombers, which dropped ultra-heavy bunker-busting bombs on the nuclear site in Fordow.

As a result, uranium enrichment centrifuges and, presumably, all enriched uranium stored there were destroyed. However, Tehran claims that all uranium reserves had been removed in advance.

Perhaps the American president would have waited a bit longer — maybe even the full two weeks he promised. But Iranian missiles increasingly reached Israeli territory, raising doubts about the Israeli Air Force’s ability to swiftly and decisively neutralize the Islamic Republic’s missile capabilities.

Washington stepped in, once again drawing its red lines. The existence of the State of Israel, after all, is a national interest of the United States.

At the same time, the Americans did not move to crush Iran completely. They didn’t even join the operation to eliminate missile launchers and stockpiles, signaling that Iran remains essential as a balancing factor in the Middle East. So essential, in fact, that the U.S. allowed Tehran to save face by retaliating with a symbolic strike on an American military base in Qatar.

Let’s be honest — can you imagine the U.S. ever allowing Saddam Hussein or Muammar Gaddafi to save face?

Israel, in turn, has gained a much-needed tactical pause. The “Axis of Resistance” was already disoriented; now, with Iran paralyzed, it faces a period of decline and fragmentation.

However, Iran’s missile and nuclear programs are far from a closed chapter. As I mentioned earlier, Tehran insists it preserved its stockpiles of enriched uranium. Moreover, several Western media outlets — including American ones — report that Iran’s nuclear program could be revived within a few years, or even months.

That said, it will now be significantly harder for Tehran to rebuild what has been destroyed. The Americans and Israelis have made it abundantly clear: they are watching Iran’s every move.

One can conclude that Iran’s revival as a regional superpower is impossible without substantial technological assistance from outside. Only such support could help it overcome the collapse of its security architecture in the face of the U.S.-Israeli alliance.

And only China is in a position to provide Iran with that kind of assistance. The question is: will Beijing be willing to get involved? Doing so would mean entrenching itself in a potential flashpoint of conflict with the United States.

An equally complex situation has unfolded within the Islamic Republic itself. The theocratic regime has managed to retain its grip on power, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has preserved its influence. However, it is reasonable to assume that the reality is far more complicated.

The shock experienced across all layers of Iranian society — including the ruling elites — is likely to trigger deep political processes in the near future.

One thing seems certain: whoever ends up at the pinnacle of Iran’s political hierarchy, there is clearly no place for the so-called crown prince, Reza Pahlavi. His fiery calls for Iranians to take up arms in the name of his dynasty’s dubious emblem come across, to put it mildly, as unserious.

Equally unserious are Tehran’s recent diplomatic maneuvers in the South Caucasus. Whether it’s the official Iranian government or one of its notorious “power towers,” provocations against Azerbaijan have resumed. What makes it particularly distasteful is that these actions are being carried out through Iran’s ambassador to Armenia — the infamous Mehdi Sobhani.

At a press conference on June 27, Sobhani claimed that Tehran allegedly possesses information indicating that Israeli drones entered Iranian airspace from Azerbaijani territory during the recent war.

And there you have it: instead of seriously reflecting on how it came to be that the enemy now roams Iranian cities as if at home, Iran’s so-called “lightweight hawks” see fit to accuse Azerbaijan of aggression.

All this comes just as Tehran has sent a new ambassador to Baku with credentials in hand, and Presidents Aliyev and Pezeshkian, in a recent phone conversation, reaffirmed the importance of continuing joint efforts to implement the agreements reached during the Iranian president’s visit to Azerbaijan.

In any case, the inconsistency of Tehran’s South Caucasus policy has effectively become a constant—one that Baku, without a doubt, factors into its geopolitical calculations.

Azerbaijan – Armenia

Last week, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev spoke at the opening ceremony of the country’s largest power plant — the “8 November” station in Mingachevir. With a capacity of 1,880 megawatts, the plant significantly strengthens Mingachevir’s position as the main energy hub not only of Azerbaijan but of the entire South Caucasus region.

Today, over 40% of the country’s electricity is produced in this city. Ilham Aliyev emphasized that commissioning the “8 November” plant will sharply reduce the consumption of conventional fuel and save natural gas, which in the long term will boost the country’s export potential.

The president also highlighted the contributions of Italy and China—countries whose companies played an active role in constructing the power plant. Both nations were named strategic partners of Azerbaijan. Close cooperation continues with Italy in the oil and gas sector, and with China in renewable energy.

Ilham Aliyev’s speech showcased how strategic thinking, international collaboration, and reliance on historical heritage enable Azerbaijan to confidently advance toward regional energy leadership.

Meanwhile, in Armenia, a new wave of confrontation is gaining momentum between Prime Minister Pashinyan and the opposition. As previously anticipated, Pashinyan has launched a crackdown on his opponents—tightening the screws, so to speak. Before this, he openly mocked the Catholicos by inviting him for an audience, aiming to dispel suspicions about Pashinyan changing his faith.

That was just the overture to a cunning drama, somewhat like The Barber of Seville. The real act began a few days later, with no jokes this time, when 15 people were arrested in connection with an alleged attempted armed coup in Armenia. Among those detained was Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, leader of the “Holy Struggle” movement.

Shortly after, not just anywhere but in the very heart of Echmiadzin, another rebellious archbishop was arrested — Mikael Ajapahyan, head of the Shirak Diocese.

These repressions are partly driven by the struggle that Moscow has launched against Pashinyan—primarily in the economic sphere. Russia apparently aims to undermine Pashinyan’s approval ratings by cutting re-export trade with Yerevan, thereby reducing income for the Armenian economy. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk made this almost explicit, lamenting Yerevan’s efforts to strengthen economic ties with the EU and noting that “Russian entrepreneurs are becoming more cautious about doing business with Armenia.”

Moscow has already estimated that by the end of the year, Russian-Armenian trade turnover will fall short by 6 billion dollars. This means a significant blow is expected for the Armenian economy. Equally significant political struggles are anticipated in Armenia in the coming months.