Could Israel-made Merkava tanks end up in Ukraine? Shereshevskiy makes a guess

In recent days the world media are all engaged in a heated debate over Israel's negotiating the export of over 200 Merkava (version 2 and 3) tanks. This tank has several versions. The latest generation refers to the fourth version and is in service with the IDF (Israel Defense Forces). The second and third versions are gradually being phased out. In this case, we are talking about tanks that have long been in storage and for which, it seems, no one was interested in acquiring them until recently.

Israeli officials report that the record demand for defence products is partly due to countries' desire to replenish their arsenals after arms deliveries to Ukraine. Israel is now exporting surplus systems that it has not previously sold abroad, including older-generation Merkavas. Israeli sources report that these tanks "could be sold to two countries, one of which is located in Europe". In the context of developments today, there is little doubt that these tanks will be delivered to Ukraine, possibly via other countries. Or it is possible that those countries would receive the Merkavas and in exchange, they would give Ukraine upgraded T-72 tanks. For example, Poland or Croatia could be involved.

The Merkava tanks showed excellent performance during the battles in the Middle East. They are well protected, easy to operate, with more than enough instructors to teach how to use them, with enough spares and ammunition, and finally, they can carry 10 people as a combination of tank and BMP. In other words, an army that uses them can accomplish several tactical missions with them. On the other hand, they are heavy tanks designed specifically for the Middle East battlefield, and it is difficult to predict how they will perform elsewhere. What state they are in also remains unknown.

We do not know whether the Merkavas will reach Ukraine, but in light of recent events, it does not seem improbable.

But why has Israel so far avoided supplying weapons to Ukraine, or at least avoided large deliveries of military equipment? And why might it have changed its attitude on these matters?

It's all about the balance of power that exists in the Middle East today. In Syria, Russian troops, as well as Iranian units and pro-Iranian brigades, support the Assad regime; without them, it would have fallen long ago. Israel has nothing against the Russian military presence, and Assad as such is of little interest to it, but Iran is its main adversary. There is fierce competition between the two countries, which are the most powerful (along with Türkiye) regional politico-military actors, for dominance in the Middle East. There is an implicit, and at times quite overt, armed confrontation. Israel is attacking various targets in Iran, the Iranians are supporting the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which is firing rockets into Israeli territory, etc.

Syria is one of the main battlegrounds of the Iranian-Israeli armed conflict. The Israelis, who are convinced that Tehran is turning Syria into its military and political base (it is), are systematically bombing the country. The Israeli air force is firing missiles at Iranian bases, precision-guided weapons depots, and other facilities located in Syria. However, Russian air defence systems do not fire on the Israelis. This is part of an unspoken Russian-Israeli partnership that goes something like this: "You don't shoot at our planes, we don't supply weapons to the AFU, we don't join international anti-Russian sanctions, we provide our resorts and clinics for wealthy Russians, etc."

So what has changed? It's simple. The Russian media is officially reporting on deliveries of the latest Russian Su-35 combat aircraft to Iran. We are probably talking about a few dozen units, although the exact figures are unknown. These planes have shown their high combat effectiveness in Ukraine, attacking older models of Ukrainian aircraft, but they could theoretically be a serious problem for the Israelis as well.

Most likely, Israel felt that in such a case it too could sell its tanks to Ukraine. All the more so as Israel is under serious pressure from the US in this regard. The Russian-Israeli partnership is unlikely to collapse. After all, it is extremely important for both countries for a number of reasons. Nevertheless, disagreements have arisen between Israel and the Russian Federation.