Turkmen leader in Azerbaijan and Trump’s ultimatum Caliber.Az weekly review

The Caliber.Az editorial team presents the latest episode of the program “Events” with Murad Abiyev, which covers the main news of the week related to Azerbaijan and beyond.

Azerbaijan

On July 19, the annual Shusha Global Media Forum officially kicked off in Khankendi. As expected, the event featured a meeting and a Q&A session with the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev. Against the backdrop of ongoing turbulent changes in the world and the region, President Aliyev delivered detailed answers that reflected programmatic theses on Azerbaijan’s position and policy in the contemporary political landscape. Although this session began and concluded before this article was published, we will be glad to share our analysis and commentary on the event in the next edition of “Events.”

This week, Azerbaijan was visited on a two-day official visit by the Chairman of the Halk Maslahaty of Turkmenistan, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov. The visit program was eventful: an official meeting and joint lunch with President Ilham Aliyev, a tour of the seaside resort Sea Breeze, and finally a trip to Karabakh, during which Berdimuhamedov visited historical and cultural sites. President Aliyev gifted the distinguished guest a Karabakh horse.

By the way, the horse’s name is “Dostlug” (Friendship), which is also the name of an oil field jointly owned by both countries on the Caspian Sea shelf. The parties have not disclosed any specific plans regarding the start of its joint development; however, there is cautious optimism to assume that the matter is moving forward after being stalled for some time.

In any case, the former president of Turkmenistan’s visit, filled with emotional elements, indicates that Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are opening a new, more substantive chapter in their bilateral relations. Although no agreements were signed during the visit, it can be considered successful in terms of establishing an active dialogue between the two countries.

Meanwhile, it is also important to mention another visit. On July 12, Baku was visited by Ahmed al-Sharaa, the President of Syria’s transitional period. As is known, relations between Azerbaijan and Syria were frozen during Bashar al-Assad’s rule, who openly supported the Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani territories. Since then, much has changed: our territories have been liberated, and Assad has been ousted. All this creates a favourable background for the revival of relations at a new stage in history. This is also facilitated by the fact that Syria’s new government enjoys strong support from fraternal Türkiye.

The main outcome of the visit was an agreement on exporting Azerbaijani gas to Syria through Turkish territory. At the same time, it was reported that negotiations were held in Baku between Syrian and Israeli delegations concerning the complicated situation on the Syrian-Israeli border. And here I move on to international news.

Middle East

It seems that the contradictions between Damascus and Tel Aviv are so deep that reaching any agreements at this point appears impossible. Israel does not trust al-Sharaa and does not want Syrian troops on its border. To this end, the Israelis use the issue of the Syrian Druze — a distinct religious community of Arabs who also live in Israel, generally loyal to the Jewish state and largely opposed to al-Sharaa’s government. Israel’s goal is to turn the Druze-majority territory in Syria’s As-Suwayda province into a buffer zone to separate its own border regions from the perceived Syrian threat.

The situation was further aggravated by a conflict between the Druze and local Bedouins. To quell the conflict, Damascus sent troops to the province, which Tel Aviv conveniently interpreted as a threat to the Druze. Without hesitation, Israel struck Damascus — specifically targeting the Syrian General Staff headquarters. Alongside this, dozens of other targets were hit, including Syrian army positions in As-Suwayda.

Israeli attacks on Syria provoked a negative reaction from official Ankara. However, it is unlikely that Türkiye will take any drastic steps. Neither Syria nor Türkiye has any need to enter into conflict with Israel. Their focus should remain on rebuilding the country, its long-term development, and steadily establishing strategic relations.

The conflict in As-Suwayda also showed that for Syria to become a full-fledged power, it needs a strong, trusted state supported by its entire population, as well as a powerful armed forces. And assistance in building these institutions can only come from Türkiye.

Ukraine — Russia

Despite fierce fighting on the front lines, missile and drone attacks, the diplomatic struggle around Ukraine is increasingly taking on an overtly commercial character.

The statement on Russia announced by Trump a week earlier was delivered as promised on July 14. As is known, he gave Russia a deadline—50 days. If Moscow does not agree to a ceasefire within this period, Trump will impose tough sanctions against it.

Earlier, Washington agreed to supply weapons to Ukraine, but with an important caveat—only for payment. European countries will foot the bill for these deliveries. This arrangement was agreed upon by the US and NATO during a visit to Washington by the organization’s Secretary-General Mark Rutte. The logic is simple: if you want the war to continue—you pay.

There is also a personal factor at play. It increasingly seems that Trump is offended by Putin’s unwillingness to compromise after so many personal phone negotiations. Adding to this are hawks and family members who claim that Putin is deceiving him.

However, let’s not picture Trump as a naïve ambitious man. In reality, his moves are highly pragmatic. He is not breaking off relations with Russia and distances himself from media rumours claiming that he is urging Zelenskyy to strike Moscow. At the same time, the sanctions he threatens, combined with weapons supplies, could deliver a significant blow to Russia. And while everything remains in such uncertainty, the US will continue to receive money from Europeans for the weapons.

The commercial nature of Trump’s policy was further emphasised by another maneuver. Almost simultaneously with statements about arms supplies to Ukraine, he threatened to impose 30% tariffs on imports from the European Union and Mexico starting August 1. He stressed that these tariffs would come into force if key trading partners failed to reach more favourable trade terms with Washington. So, Trump continues to push everyone towards deals. And we will keep following this in real time.