Potholes on the Moscow–Baku track and Trump’s trimmed ultimatum Caliber.Az weekly review

The editorial team of Caliber.Az presents another episode of the programme "Events" with Murad Abiyev, covering the week’s top news related to Azerbaijan and beyond.

Azerbaijan

The ongoing Azerbaijan–Russia crisis has given rise to a new wave of developments. This time, the contribution came from figures in Russian culture—or rather, from those who oversee it. Russian Presidential Envoy for International Cultural Cooperation Mikhail Shvydkoy described the dismantling of the bust of Ivan Aivazovsky in Khankendi as a "cancellation of Russian culture."

A bit of background: the bust of the marine artist was installed by Russian peacekeepers during their deployment in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan, in accordance with the Trilateral Statement. However, that statement makes no mention of any right for Russian peacekeepers to erect monuments. In other words, the installation was illegal—the Russian peacekeeping contingent had no right to place a bust of anyone, be it Aivazovsky or Pamela Anderson, on Azerbaijani territory without official permission from Baku.

We have nothing against Aivazovsky personally, nor against Russian culture as such. In fact, it even feels somewhat awkward to raise the ethnic aspect—namely, that the artist was of Armenian descent. Although it’s quite clear that when the Russian peacekeeping contingent (RPC) installed the bust, this symbolic layer was certainly part of the intent. Otherwise, why not erect a monument to, say, Repin or Vasnetsov? But for Baku, these are secondary considerations. The primary issue is the alteration of the urban landscape without the knowledge or consent of the Azerbaijani authorities.

I suspect that monuments to those other artists—had they been installed—would have eventually met the same fate. This is not about Russian culture. It’s about legality. Azerbaijani authorities dismantled the monument because it was an illegal structure. Full stop.

Therefore, the issue isn’t worth a dime. However, Moscow chose to exploit this trivial matter to stir up hysteria. And that is a more serious concern. It signals that the Kremlin has no intention of de-escalating tensions.

At the same time, reports have emerged about the transfer of additional personnel and weaponry to the 102nd military base in Gyumri, carried out by air.

Experts have proposed various theories—from an attempt to pressure South Caucasus countries to outright preparations for military expansion in the region. Another version suggests plans to interfere in the anticipated domestic protests in Armenia, siding with the opposition.

On the one hand, this all appears quite menacing. On the other, the very fact that Moscow is resorting to military muscle-flexing shows it has no other real levers of influence over the South Caucasus. Nikol Pashinyan is steadily pulling the rug out from under Russia’s economic presence in Armenia. Now, it’s crucial for him not to fall for military provocations and to simply weather the storm.

Ukraine – Russia

Meanwhile, the Russia–Ukraine war has entered another acute phase—both on the battlefield and on the political-diplomatic front. The Russian army has taken control of Chasiv Yar, which significantly boosts its ability to advance northwest toward Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. There are also reports of fierce fighting over Pokrovsk, a critical logistical hub whose capture would severely hamper the movement and supply lines of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in that sector.

At the same time, intense political battles have flared up around the conflict. U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly shortened his ultimatum to Russia—from fifty days to just twelve—meaning it will now expire on August 8. It’s worth recalling that just one day prior, Trump met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and signed an agreement that grants the U.S. zero tariffs and various trade preferences. European goods, however, will now be subject to a 15% tariff in the U.S.—in some cases, several times higher than previous rates.

Although there were no public statements to that effect, the prevailing interpretation is that, in return, Europe received guarantees of its own security in the face of a potential Russian threat. There is reason to believe that these guarantees include an increase in U.S. military assistance to Kyiv.

That this is indeed the case is evidenced by the markedly harsher tone adopted by the American president. Particularly striking was his exchange on social media with former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. Medvedev criticised the shortened ultimatum, calling it a step toward Trump waging war against his own people, and even compared him to Biden. In response, Trump called Medvedev a failed president, warned him that he was treading on dangerous ground, and advised him to watch his words.

But the enfant terrible of Russian politics could no longer be restrained. Medvedev posted something about the "walking dead" and the "dead hand"—the latter being a term associated with Russia’s nuclear weapons programme. That same evening, Trump announced that he had ordered two nuclear submarines to be deployed to “relevant regions” in response to Medvedev’s “provocative” remarks.

Meanwhile, Putin and Lukashenko met in Valaam, where—sitting on a bench—Russia’s president declared that the Russian army had adopted new "Oreshnik" missiles into service. Congratulations! Two nuclear powers are now openly threatening one another. If this doesn’t mark a new level of escalation, then what does?

That said, it’s important to understand why Medvedev started talking about nuclear death in the first place. Could it be that Trump’s revised ultimatum has backed Russia into a corner, highlighting the impossibility of winning the war and, therefore, foreshadowing internal upheaval? Incidentally, Medvedev’s mention of Trump waging war against his own people may have been a Freudian slip—betraying fears for his own country’s future.

One more detail: when speaking of the sanctions that are likely to follow, Trump added that he wasn’t sure they would have any real effect. Many commentators in Russia are comforting themselves with the idea that Trump doesn’t believe in sanctions himself and is merely going through the motions—performing for show, so to speak.

However, things may be far more serious than that. The very fact that Trump openly admits doubts about the effectiveness of sanctions suggests that he is placing his bets on entirely different instruments…