From Serbia’s Novi Sad to Tbilisi A guidebook for a “Maidan-style” coup

Kakha Kaladze, who has served as the mayor of Tbilisi since 2017 and was re-elected in 2021, will run for a third term as the capital’s mayor under the banner of the ruling Georgian Dream party.

The announcement was made by the ruling party via social media on the evening of July 30, 2025, and on July 31, Kaladze was officially nominated as a mayoral candidate for the local elections scheduled for October 4, 2025.

“Peace for Georgia, More Good for Tbilisi” — this is the slogan of his election campaign.

“Today, our country and our capital are something of an island of peace, which creates a special perspective for development. The fact that there is peace in the country today is thanks to the policies pursued by Georgian Dream,” Kaladze stated at the campaign launch event.

Given that the position of Tbilisi mayor is one of the most important in the country, the upcoming elections for the capital’s mayor and city council will be decisive in the broader local vote.

Kaladze is likely to become the main target of attacks by the pro-Western opposition. However, there is no real alternative to him within opposition ranks. Moreover, the opposition is divided over whether to participate in the elections at all, and the parties that have decided to run simply do not have candidates with the name recognition or popularity to compete with Kaladze. According to most sociologists, a first-round victory for him appears more than likely.

According to Irakli Zarkua, Chairman of the Georgian Parliament’s Committee on Diaspora Affairs, Kakha Kaladze is deservedly running for Tbilisi mayor, and “he has no competitors.”

"During his tenure, there has not been a single case where construction continued or began in a recreational area, unlike under Ugulava. Under his leadership, the capital regained its green belt, thousands of parks and squares were renovated, and new ones were created. Of course, challenges remain, but I am confident that in his third term, Kakha Kaladze will complete what he started," Zarkua emphasised.

One of Kaladze’s major accomplishments as mayor has been the renewal of the city’s public transportation system — today, only new, modern, and comfortable buses operate throughout the capital.

“We have been consistent in our approach to transport reform and policy. The first thing we did was deliver on our promise: the entire public transport fleet was renewed, and we now have new, European-style, eco-friendly buses. That stage has been successfully completed. As mayor of the city and as a resident, I’m proud that Tbilisi has the newest and most well-organised public transport system — arguably in all of Europe,” Kaladze stated back in 2022.

Nevertheless, under a “revolutionary” scenario, it is precisely the negative narratives and scandals related to Kaladze’s mayoral tenure that may be used as a catalyst for a new wave of protests. Moreover, the main goal of such actions will clearly not be to address urban issues or compete for the mayoral seat, but rather to change the country’s government forcibly.

The fact that a revolution is being prepared in Georgia on election day is hardly being concealed. Opera singer and leader of the opposition movement “Rustaveli Avenue,” Paata Burchuladze, has openly promised to overthrow the current government by holding a so-called “national assembly” in the centre of Tbilisi — on Republic Square.

Information attacks against Kakha Kaladze from the opposition and pro-Western NGOs are already underway — often exploiting emergencies and crisis situations that periodically occur in Tbilisi.

It is well known that one of Tbilisi’s most pressing problems remains the condition of its housing stock — the city has many structurally unsound buildings.

“About 10,000 buildings and structures are in various categories of disrepair and, of course, require demolition, renovation, or replacement with new ones,” Kakha Kaladze has acknowledged.

The problem of unsafe housing cannot be solved overnight. Moreover, some of these buildings are recognised as architectural landmarks or as vital elements of Tbilisi’s distinctive urban charm — which also attracts tourists. For this reason, the authorities cannot resort to mass demolition: reconstruction and relocation efforts require both time and significant resources.

Meanwhile, accidents related to the city’s ageing housing stock continue to occur regularly. On July 14, 2025, part of a building’s façade collapsed at 10 Tevdore Mgvdeli Street near Station Square. Two people were killed, and another was injured.

The opposition immediately blamed Kakha Kaladze, accusing City Hall of failing to evacuate residents from the unsafe building in time and of not taking adequate safety measures.

However, just 10 days later, on July 24, the same opposition launched a completely different attack — this time accusing Kaladze of “violating human rights.”

That day, following a court decision, police began the forced eviction of residents from five unsafe buildings in the Samgori district, at 1 Tvalchrelidze Street. According to a state inspection, the load-bearing walls of those buildings were severely damaged, posing a risk of collapse at any moment.

During the operation, 17 people were detained — both residents protesting the eviction and opposition-aligned activists attempting to obstruct the police.

Following the incident, Kakha Kaladze addressed critics of the City Hall’s enforcement actions:
“When a residential building in Tbilisi recently collapsed and people died, we were accused of inaction. Now that dangerous buildings are being vacated, they say we are being cruel. Do they want people to keep dying under rubble?”

It appears the opposition is indeed banking on human casualties to blame the authorities and mobilise public outrage.

Such a scenario fits squarely into the playbook of a “Maidan-style” coup. The precedent — the collapse of a canopy at the railway station in Novi Sad, Serbia, which resulted in fatalities and sparked mass protests — has already become a template for Georgia’s pro-Western opposition. They now appear to be striving for a similar chain of events in Tbilisi.

It is highly likely that opposition activists will deliberately amplify scandals tied to urban development, unsafe buildings, traffic congestion, landslides, and other vulnerabilities of the capital.

By Vladimir Tskhvediani, Georgia — exclusively for Caliber.Az