Expert: Armenia may need Russian help in case of confrontation with neighbours Alexander Kovalenko on Caliber.Az

Caliber.Az presents an interview with Ukrainian military-political observer Alexander Kovalenko of the group "Information Resistance".

- In 2014, the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation prepared a springboard for the annexation of Crimea. Meanwhile, units of Russian troops have been stationed in Armenia for a long time, in particular the 102nd military base in Gyumri. Are parallels possible here?

- Russian troops, in whatever form it is presented - as a peacekeeping contingent, as units on a rented base or in another format, are not good. Russians have always seen Armenia as a subsidiary territory, which they used as part of the realization of their ambitions in the South Caucasus. Therefore, the presence of the Russian military on the Armenian territory in the current format is controversial. After all, while many expressed support for the Russian presence in Gyumri, justifying it by defending against some hypothetical threat from Turkey and Azerbaijan, others argued, proving that this is, in fact, the loss of Armenia's statehood.

The current expansion of the Russian contingent in this country, especially against the background of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, looks like a very dangerous signal for Yerevan. After all, the greater the military presence of another country on the territory of the one with which it does not count, the higher the outgoing threats. Will Yerevan understand this? It's hard to say.

- Russia is building a new military base on the territory of Armenia in the direction of Azerbaijan's Tovuz District. Do you think this poses a threat to Azerbaijan?

- This is unlikely to pose a threat to Azerbaijan in the short term, but in the medium term…

The fact is that now Karabakh continues to be the most unstable region. And not so much because of Armenia's unwillingness to engage in dialogue to solve this problem, but because of the presence of the Russian peacekeeping contingent there. The presence, which does not solve the main problem of Karabakh, does not stimulate Yerevan's compliance with the promises made in 2020 and the issue of which will also be raised in a couple of years. And that is what is alarming. After all, Moscow may unilaterally decide to remain in Karabakh with its "peacekeeping" contingent, ignoring Baku's position.

- Do you think it is beneficial for Armenia to deploy Russian troops on its territory?

- In military terms, Armenia lost its potential in 2020. It will take the country years and billions of dollars to restore it, which it does not have in its budget. That is, the restoration of the lost potential may take a decade, if not more. And here the main question arises – what kind of future the countries see in Yerevan. If this future appears to be isolationism and confrontation with neighbours, then Armenia cannot do without Russian support. If this future is seen as the establishment of economic and political ties, then there is no sense in the Russian military presence. It is noteworthy that in Armenia itself, in my opinion, they do not fully know what their path is, and both directions in politics and society have sufficient support.

- And speaking more broadly about Russia's ambitions, are the countries of Central Asia and/or the South Caucasus at risk?

- Unfortunately - yes. Russia has an interest in almost every country of the former USSR. And this interest is primarily of a revanchist nature. The threat also lies in the fact that in almost every one of these countries Moscow has its own pool of influence both among politicians and in society – citizens of pro-Russian views. Using this potential, it is able to influence public opinion, and sometimes even chaotic social situations. With an eye on the events in Ukraine, it is impossible to exclude the use of a military factor in an effort to regain control over these countries. Moreover, this can be explained by Russian propaganda quite simply to the Russians themselves. After all, during the January events in Kazakhstan, Russian propagandists have already created the foundation for future information stuffing, dispersing fakes about biological laboratories and nationalists, and during the 44-day war in Karabakh, fakes were replicated that terrorists were fighting for the Azerbaijani army.

- Many experts believe that the war in Ukraine may turn into a protracted confrontation. How will Ukraine behave in this case?

- There are risks of this because Ukraine's goal is to end the war within the internationally recognised borders of 1991, which means that a very difficult operation is ahead to return to Crimea. If the land part of the war may well end in the coming months with the most favourable combination of circumstances, then the scenario with Crimea will stretch for at least a year.

In any case, Ukraine emerged from a situation where the Russian army had total superiority in numbers and weapons. The resource of the Russian occupation forces is being exhausted, and this is already evident from the pace of their offensive – it has been stopped. The next task of the Armed Forces is levelling the enemy's defence potential so that he cannot hold the occupied territories.

- What do you think about the territories of Azerbaijan where the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is temporarily located? Will it leave in 2025?

- Everything depends on Baku's position by the time the Russian peacekeepers' presence in Karabakh expires. They must be withdrawn from the region. If this does not happen, it will be possible to say that Russia occupied part of Karabakh under the pretext of a peacekeeping mission. Actions in such a situation should be adjusted taking into account all the risks. Although I do not rule out that by that time Russia will be so weakened by the war with Ukraine in military, economic and political terms that such adventures will be beyond its strength, and in general inappropriate.