Georgian opposition faces harsh reality: "The train has already left" Experts weigh in

After losing the parliamentary elections, the Georgian opposition is trying to mobilize the people for continuous and mass protests, aiming to annul the election results and call for a new vote. However, it is becoming increasingly clear to them with each passing day – the train has already left. The rallies are becoming smaller, and there is no full solidarity or coordinated action among the different factions of the opposition.

So, what’s next? Will the opposition have to accept the fact that the majority of the people supported the ruling party? And what will the opposition’s elected representatives in parliament eventually do with their mandates? Will they continue to refuse to participate in parliamentary work? Or, as in 2020/21, will they wait for some time and then show up in parliament anyway?

Georgian experts shared their thoughts on this issue at the request of Caliber.Az.

Political analyst and founder of the SIKHA Foundation research centre, Archil Sikharulidze, noted that, in his opinion, the Georgian opposition's refusal to accept the election results is yet another attempt to undermine the system and the agreement that existed between the country's citizens.

"In particular, it’s about the principle that the winner must acknowledge their victory, and the loser must accept defeat. Since 2020, there have been attempts to disrupt this system in the name of so-called European values, but this is not supported by the majority of the Georgian population. The opposition relied entirely on Western support, not on the Georgian electorate, which is why they suffered defeat. And now the opposition lacks resources: even if the West refuses to recognize something (although this is not its prerogative), the opposition lacks the strength and means to change the system," says the head of the centre.

In his opinion, the only way out for the opposition is to return to the constitutional framework, continue the dialogue, enter parliament, and prove through their work that their views deserve the majority of votes in the next election.

"At the moment, the ruling party, Georgian Dream, is conducting an absolutely correct policy, stating that Georgia should join the European Union and other Western institutions while maintaining its dignity and considering its national and geopolitical interests. This view is supported by the majority, especially those who form the financial and economic foundation of our country. Therefore, many are now expecting that the opposition will, sooner or later, enter parliament. If they do not do this, their position will be even weaker in the next election. It will be unclear what they can offer the electorate," said Sikharulidze.

Political analyst, director of the Caucasus Center for Islamic Studies, and expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Shota Apkhaidze, in turn, stated that the results of the elections in Georgia have already been practically recognized by all Western structures.

"The Council of Europe, the European Union, and the OSCE—all of them have acknowledged that the elections took place. There were minor violations at certain polling stations. In one district, Tetritskaro, the court even annulled the results of the vote. But still, the majority of the country's citizens voted for the Georgian Dream—this is a fact that cannot be denied, and even European officials have recognized it.

Therefore, the opposition will have to accept this objective reality sooner or later. Despite the fact that the opposition garnered a significant number of votes, its leaders apparently had high hopes for a complete victory. It should be understood that the ruling party had administrative resources and stronger positions in the form of a conservative platform—since the majority of Georgians are traditionalists and religious. This is what contributed to the victory of the Georgian Dream and the defeat of the ultra-liberal opposition.

So, they must accept these results, even if not a single European official can bring themselves to say that the elections in Georgia were falsified," concluded the director of the centre.

The opposition is currently trying to mobilize a large portion of the country's citizens for protests, but according to Apkhaidze, it will not succeed.

"I don't think they’ll even manage to organize a large turnout from their own core supporters. We’ve already seen several of their actions after the elections, and nothing substantial came out of them. Now, I think the question is no longer about mass protests, but about which of them will be the first weak link to join the elected parliament.

The opposition must understand that the geopolitical situation is shifting globally, and they should approach this reality rationally, not with panic or through destructive actions. Especially now that Trump has won in the US—I’m not saying that US policy toward Georgia will drastically change, but if the opposition doesn’t start behaving constructively, it will no longer find allies in the West, as it did under Biden. They must accept defeat and continue their work, because they did garner a significant number of votes and are fully capable of working constructively in the legislative body, where they can oppose the Georgian Dream," suggests Apkhaidze.