South Caucasus remains key geopolitical region for global powers Expert opinion

Interview with Georgian political scientist and international relations expert Giorgi Gogua for Caliber.Az

— How will the situation in Georgia develop following the recent parliamentary elections? Some analysts believe that the West will try to increase pressure on Tbilisi, while others think it will be forced to cooperate with the victorious Georgian Dream party.

— Over the 12 years of its rule, the Georgian Dream government has taken many steps to strengthen ties with the West. Under their leadership, Georgia signed an Association Agreement with the European Union, established a visa-free regime with EU member states, and a free trade regime was implemented. Overall, Georgia has maintained positive momentum in its European integration efforts.

The situation changed after Russia began its military actions in Ukraine. Against this backdrop, the current government has to walk a very precarious line: it must maintain strong ties with the West and continue the process of European integration, while also pursuing a balanced policy with the Russian Federation.

It is difficult to predict how events will unfold, as this depends on the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war and the results of the upcoming US elections. If the Republican Party candidate, Donald Trump, wins the election, there is a possibility that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine could end, and the crisis in the Middle East may be alleviated. However, it remains unclear how the geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus will develop. In Georgia, conservative forces place high hopes on Trump's victory, and the government also believes that, following a potential Trump win, Western pressure will ease, and Georgian-American and Georgian-European relations will be reset.

There are challenges that Washington and Brussels fail to consider — the national identity of Georgian society is too distinct and cannot easily adapt to the ultra-liberal democracy of the West. Georgia is inherently a conservative country.

— During the election campaign in Georgia, representatives of the ruling party mentioned several times that the Georgian Dream (GD) would try to improve its relations with the EU after the elections, and experts say that a special strategy is being developed for this...

— Yes, the party's secretary general and the prime minister noted that after the elections, relations with the European Union and other Western institutions will be reset. I believe this is a feeling based on the expectation that the EU will recognize the election results. However, to date, no EU leader has congratulated GD on its victory. The only European politician who did so and visited Tbilisi on an official visit was Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

— Moscow has expressed a desire to help Tbilisi restore dialogue with the Tskhinvali region and Abkhazia, and the leader of the ruling party, Bidzina Ivanishvili, went even further, stating the intention to apologize to the Ossetians for Tbilisi's actions in 2008. What do you think the development of these processes will be after the elections?

— Ivanishvili's words have elicited mixed reactions within Georgian society. In my opinion, for the Abkhaz and Ossetian peoples, for those who suffered as a result of the conflicts, such a step is a just and worthy gesture. At the same time, it signifies that Georgia is ready for dialogue, both with Russia and with the de facto leaders of the occupied regions. As I mentioned earlier, the Russia-Ukraine war has changed global geopolitics and the balance of power. Russia is now more interested in the South Caucasus than ever before. Russia is unlikely to reverse its stance and withdraw its recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This is out of the question for at least the next ten years. The Russians may propose a different form of integration for Abkhazia and South Ossetia, such as recognizing these republics as autonomous entities. There is also an expectation that an agreement will be reached regarding the return of displaced populations to the occupied regions. Politics does not favour haste; the most important thing is for events to unfold within the most favourable geopolitical environment for Georgia.

— How might the results of the US elections affect the geopolitical activity of the West in the South Caucasus, especially considering that this activity cannot be described as positive? As we know, France and the US are supplying arms to Yerevan.

— Unlike Georgia, Azerbaijan is a major player. Azerbaijan can trade with any major world power and establish political dialogue, considering its national and strategic interests. In the event of a Kamala Harris victory, it is possible that new hotspots of tension could emerge or conflicts could escalate in areas where tensions are already high. After the Middle East, the South Caucasus is the second region where the interests of global powers converge. In this situation, it is important to deepen cooperation between the countries of the region. Together — Georgians, Azerbaijanis, and Armenians — we can turn the Caucasus into a paradise! The key is to remember history. In the early 20th century, there were already remarkable examples of such cooperation, like the Transcaucasian Seim. I sincerely believe that together we can rewrite history.