"Franco-Russian-Iranian alliance encroaches upon interests of Azerbaijan, Türkiye and Israel" Political expert Avraham Shmulevich on Caliber.Az

A number of observers monitoring the dynamics of political developments in the South Caucasus have lately been noting signs of the emergence of a certain alliance, aimed at hindering Azerbaijan's consolidation in the region and resistance to its geopolitical interests, as well as against the growing cooperation of our country with Israel. This alliance consists of France, Russia, and Iran.

It is quite possible that they are already acting in a consolidated manner, somehow coordinating their steps among themselves. We can see that all of them are interested in maintaining the revanchist political camp in Yerevan, do not want Azerbaijan to gain full control over its sovereign lands in Karabakh, and in one way or another are in favor of the continued existence of the illegal separatist "NKR".

At the same time, and this is Iran for the most part, they are vehemently opposed to any Israeli presence in Azerbaijan. Apparently, they realize that owing to military cooperation with this country Azerbaijan has managed to significantly strengthen its position in the region. At the same time, Tehran bluntly accuses Baku of turning into "a servant of Zionism," as if some Israeli intelligence centres operate in Azerbaijan to undermine the internal political situation in Iran.

Russia explicitly proposed to Armenia at the Valdai forum not to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan until the end of the year, and it certainly would not want to withdraw its peacekeepers from Karabakh as early as 2025.

On November 15, the French Senate voted to impose sanctions against Azerbaijan for "crimes and unjustified aggression against Armenia". In addition, France wants to supply heavy weapons to Armenia.

All these actions threaten the interests of Azerbaijan and Israel. Can they succeed in case this trinity continues its pressure, each part of it from its own side? How can Azerbaijan, Israel, and Türkiye counter this?

Avraham Shmulevich, an expert on the Caucasus, the Islamic world, and the Middle East, chairman of the Eastern Partnership Institute (Jerusalem) shared his views on these issues with Caliber.Az.

According to him, the vote held in the French Senate should not be underestimated. Nor should the strength, capacity, and dangers of the triple alliance between Russia, Iran, and France be overlooked.

"France has long acted in a pro-Russian spirit in the Caucasus. Remember the position of Paris during the war against Georgia, as well as the fact that the current Georgian President Zurabishvili is a former staff member of the French Foreign Ministry. And the current Georgian government, controlled by the former prime minister and Russian oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, is quite pro-Russian. This means that France has quite strong levers of influence over Georgia that are used in a pro-Russian manner.

Besides, I will remind you about the long-lasting relations of France with the ruling regime of Iran. As a matter of fact, the overthrow of the Shah's regime and the coming to power of pseudo-Islamic ayatollahs happened with the help of France. Khomeini was hiding in that state and it was from France that he worked to undermine the Shah's regime and organize the Islamic revolution. So this has quite a long tradition.

In the Middle East, France also acts in an anti-Israeli spirit. Few people are aware of this, for example, France is trying to push Israel out of Iraqi Kurdistan.

Paris' relations with Türkiye are extremely strained. Just a few months ago, French and Turkish warships were facing each other, ready to fight in the Aegean Sea. At that time two Turkish nationals, if I am not mistaken, were killed in the incident. What exactly happened there is unclear. It was announced that they were civilians on a boat of some kind. But nevertheless, France and Türkiye were on the brink of war. This was due to the dispute over Greece, its territorial waters, and hydrocarbon production," the expert said.

That is, this "alliance of three" has existed for a long time and should not be underestimated, just as the influence of the Armenian lobby in France should not be underestimated, Shmulevich said.

"As for Russia, it is extremely interested in the continued existence of the Karabakh crisis, because it is one of its few levers of influence on Azerbaijan, along with economic pressure and the presence of the Azerbaijani diaspora in Russia. Therefore, Russia will do its best to ensure that this boil never opens up and continues to fester.

Besides, it is true that Armenia and its economy are completely under Russia's control, and what is not under Moscow's control is under Iran's control. And although there are certain forces in Armenia and in the Armenian diaspora in the US who would like to change Armenia's orientation from Russia and Iran to the West, I don't think it is possible.

In any case, this alliance, I repeat, exists. It affects Israel's interests as well. Not only because Israel and Azerbaijan are strategic partners, and there is a cooperation between our countries in energy and arms sales, and there are also joint ventures. It is also about pipelines. Israel is now beginning to supply gas from its fields to Europe, and here too there are certain controversies with France," the political analyst said.

He noted that relations between Türkiye and Israel, which were interrupted back in 2017, are now being restored, as well as military ties.

"The economic relations between Türkiye and Israel, by the way, have never been interrupted, the turnover has only been growing all these years. There are certain statements from Turkish diplomacy which show that they really want to restore relations with Israel. This is a positive development.

Azerbaijan is finally going to open its embassy in Israel, which is also a positive thing, it will contribute to the strengthening relations between our countries even more. They need to increase cooperation, understanding that this Franco-Russian-Iranian alliance is encroaching upon the interests of our countries all over the perimeter. I don't think the resolution of the French Senate will have too serious results, but on the other hand, of course, Azerbaijan has to take it very seriously and consider it a real threat. We must try to strengthen relations with the USA, and Azerbaijani diplomacy must contribute to somehow solving the crisis that exists in relations between Türkiye and America. Because it is clear that the US position is crucial, and it could act as a counterforce to France. Washington could put pressure on Paris if it wanted to. According to some reports, Aliyev has played quite a big role in building relations between Türkiye and Israel.

Israel has a powerful lobby in the US, and this too could be used to improve US-Turkish relations. In short, our countries have to work together, understanding that there are forces that oppose them. These are the diplomatic and economic threats from France. A rather strong military threat to Azerbaijan from Iran. And restoration of Turkish-Israeli relations and the strengthening of Azerbaijani-Israeli cooperation in all directions must be a response to this policy. But I repeat, this confrontation is for a long time, and it is quite serious," concluded the Israeli expert.