Garabagh Armenians are stuck in a rut Contemplations with Orkhan Amashov/VIDEO

"Garabagh Armenians are stuck in a rut" - this is how the author of Contemplations with Orkhan Amashov describes the present state of affairs in which the local population has found itself enmeshed. In Amashov's view, given the change within the separatist regime in Khankendi, in which those known for more radical views have usurped power, and Pashinyan's delicate position necessitating pandering to the whims of the revanchist block so as to ensure victory in the forthcoming Yerevan elections, the peace process seems to have stalled briefly. However, the author believes that prolonged stagnation is unlikely, for Baku has "a schedule with deadlines".

“There is one particular element that remains unchanged in the Azerbaijani-Armenian dynamics. When Baku offers something that Yerevan rejects, with the separatists in Garabagh remaining intransigent, then the next offer by the former becomes less generous and more restrictive. Baku, as far as one can establish from the basis of official statements, suggested that, once the Aghdam-Khankandi Road is open and functional, there could be some intensification of movement along the Lachin-Khankendi Road. 

Now that the timeframe for acquiescence seems to have elapsed, Baku, if one can read between the lines, effectively demands the immediate disbandment of the military junta (which will happen anyway), in addition to the unblocking of the Aghdam-Khankendi Road, as conditions for a more relaxed arrangement regarding the Lachin border checkpoint. 

Lessons must be learned. Recalcitrance by the Garabagh Armenians and gutlessness by Yerevan will result in an express train to nowhere. To be more precise, it will lead to confrontation on the ground, followed by the resumption of talks on new terms that are inevitably less favourable to Yerevan. 

It has always been on the cards that Azerbaijan could resort to considerable military means to induce the withdrawal of the illegal Armenian armed formations from Karabakh and the liquidation of the separatist entity. The question is if Baku will wait for the separatist regime to implode. At some point, which may come sooner than one may think, the demands from the local population to resolve the issue will be greater, particularly bearing in mind that winter is fast approaching.

Inside the zone under the temporary control of the so-called Russian ´peacekeeping´ contingent, those with money - the so-called elites within the social structure of the Garabagh Armenians - are in a much better situation. Videos and photos circulating on social media are in abundance and are very telling. 

But, for the rest, living standards are markedly different. Bad grain harvests, fuel scarcity, and the black market are preying heavily upon the minds of ordinary Garabagh Armenians. 

To fix this issue, the Aghdam-Khankendi Road should be open for the transfer of essential supplies. It is currently blocked. I was there myself during the final two days of August. During late evening on 30 August, there were some expectations that the so-called Russian ´peacekeepers’ would approach a conditional checkpoint installed at the entrance to the road, with 40 tonnes of flour brought by the Azerbaijani Crescent Society being unloaded from their trucks and then reloaded on the vehicles of the Russian ´peacekeepers’, thereafter travelling on to Khankendi.

Nothing eventuated from those hopes. Local Armenians, as we know today, stopped the vehicles of the Russian contingent from approaching the spot where we were at the time -  the entrance of the Aghdam-Khankendi Road. Whether these local Armenians were acting on their own initiative or fulfilling the orders of the separatist junta is peripheral.

The crux of the matter is that, if the Garabagh Armenians are claiming that they are starving and requesting urgent humanitarian international assistance, yet simultaneously rejecting supplies offered by Azerbaijan's Red Crescent Society, then the obvious conclusion is that their present struggle is not about humanitarian needs, but one of an irrefutably political character. 

Should the Aghdam-Khankendi Road remain blocked for a while, the situation for ordinary Garabagh Armenians will exacerbate, and the whole enterprise will assume the characteristic of a hunger strike. But hunger strikes, with a few exceptions, normally end before reaching the point of mortality.

Baku can never talk to the separatist junta based in Khankendi, but the changes within the latter's unrecognised leadership render dialogue with the representatives of the Garabagh Armenians presently unlikely. Samvel Shahramanyan, the so-called new “state minister" of the separatists, is known for his close ties with Bako Sahakyan and Arkady Gukasyan. A so-called “new speaker” of the illegal “parliament” is David Ishkhanyan from the Dashnakstyun party. I suppose there is no need to say what he represents. In some ways, the latest changes could be described as a "Garabagh clan takeover in Khankendi", with some possible consequences for power dynamics in Yerevan. 

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is under pressure. The forthcoming mayoral elections are weighing heavily on his mind. He needs to ensure the victory of the candidate of the Civil Contract Party - Tigran Avinyan. And Pashinyan's detractors are aiming to transform the mayoral elections into a vote of confidence on Pashinyan himself hoping that, if Avinyan loses, it will trigger a chain of events leading to Pashinyan's removal from power. 

All of these mean that the Armenian Prime Minister should increase his popularity or stop it from further diminishing. Perhaps, in this desire to remain more attuned with large swathes of the population, we can find the reasons underpinning his recently augmented tendency to pander to the revanchist sentiments of former presidents Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan. 

Pashinyan insists that "Nagorno-Karabakh" exists as a territorial unit, demanding an international mechanism to guarantee the rights and security of the Garabagh Armenians, with full knowledge that Baku will not acquiesce. His congratulatory letter on the occasion of the "declaration of independence of 'Nagorno-Karabakh'", which was the result of an illegal referendum unrecognised by no sovereign state, including Armenia itself, was extremely unhelpful, particularly given its content, with Baku seeing it as a territorial claim on Azerbaijan. 

The peace process seems to have been stalled for the time being. There is no visible sign of progress and Garabagh Armenians are stuck in a rut. But stagnation cannot last forever. Normally, under the circumstances, slackening of the negotiations is occasioned with an increase in tensions on the ground, initially exacerbating the crisis, up to a point, and then leading to a new set of circumstances that opens up the stage for a new phase of discussions. This pattern is unlikely to change this time.”