Has Israel really set its mind on military cooperation with Ukraine? Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

Lately, the dialogue between Israel and Ukraine has become more dynamic. One of the reasons is the growing military–technical partnership between Russia, which is at war with Ukraine, and Iran, which is extremely aggressive towards Israel. Common enemies, as we know, make friendships grow stronger.

The other day, former head of the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service Mykola Malomuzh said that the Israel and Ukrainian defense ministers might discuss measures to counter Tehran. "First of all, both countries have a common enemy - Iran. Therefore, it is quite appropriate to discuss this threat." The former Ukrainian chief intelligence officer even added that there is a possibility of discussing Israel's transferring frontline air defence systems and the Iron Dome anti-missile defence system to Ukraine. In other words, it looks like there is going to be very serious military cooperation between the countries.

But later Kyiv also voiced discontent with the prospective partner: the head of the Ukrainian presidential office, Yermak, noted that most world leaders have visited embattled Ukraine, while Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has not done so. Moreover, he did not deign to meet Zelenska, Ukraine's first lady during her visit to Israel. Yet Zelenska hinted pointedly in an interview with the Israeli news website Ynet: "Israel has technology that we need urgently".

So what is happening now in relations between Israel and Ukraine? Is Israel really set on military cooperation with Ukraine, i.e. deliveries of Israeli weapons to it in the hope of a future joint confrontation with Iran?

Aleksandr Kovalenko, the Ukrainian military and political observer of the Information Resistance group is very skeptical about the alleged deliveries of Israeli-made weapons, in particular the famous Iron Dome, and in a conversation with Caliber.Az gives specific reasons for his doubts.

"I don't think such negotiations are going on right now. The fact is that, as practice shows, Iron Dome has turned out to be quite specific in terms of integration into the air defenсe system of different countries. For example, they tried to integrate it into the US missile defenсe system, but the Dome was not able to fit fully into the country's air defenсe scheme. Unlike the same NASAMS system, which is used to defend Washington and has proved very effective in Ukraine.

True, this is not always the case: Iron Dome is effective in protecting a number of cities in Azerbaijan.

In general, the proposal to transfer the Iron Dome to Ukraine was voiced back in 2021, but the technical and technological problems of its integration again make the choice in favor of other air defenсe systems, such as IRIS-T, NASAMS, even Crotale, SAM 'Gepard' and others.

In general, the issue of military-technical cooperation between Israel and Ukraine is largely shrouded in mystery. That is, it is classified higher than "top secret" and its details do not appear in open sources. And even if they do appear, it is only at the level of conspiracy theory.

It is only known that Israel's support for Ukraine now takes place mostly at the humanitarian level. This includes the treatment of Ukrainian fighters in Israeli hospitals and other forms of humanitarian aid. As for the military-technical component of the support, everything is still at the level of rumors. This also applies to talks about Israel's provision of 155 mm ammunition, as well as other military-technical equipment. To the question about deliveries of Merkava tanks to Ukraine we should ask a counter-question: were Ukrainian crews trained for these tanks? No one has ever heard about it. It is known that Ukrainian tank crews are now being trained on Leopards, Abrams, and Challengers. Yes, recently there has been information about almost a hundred 'Merkava' that 'may be transferred to Ukraine'. But this is also a hundred crews for such vehicles, but nowhere in Ukraine has the concentration of such a number of personnel undergoing training on these tanks been noticed. So there are big doubts about this information.

But if they say that the Merkava can be used to compensate for deliveries of main battle tanks to Ukraine by other countries, then I will believe it...

Nevertheless, objectively I would like to note that relations between Ukraine and Israel, especially in military-technical cooperation, became more active and the countries found common ground after Russia and Iran became closer: the Russian defence industry received and improved Iranian drones 'Shahed' of various modifications - they were equipped with Russian GLONASS system, as well as an improved fuel system.

In addition, Iran received a SU-35 fighter jet from Russia, which is simply unacceptable, and now it declares the creation of the first hypersonic long-range ballistic missile. Not so long ago, one of Iran's most advanced ballistic missiles was the Zulfugar, with a range of 600 kilometres, and now Tehran claims they already have a hypersonic missile with a speed of up to 15 Mach and a range of up to 2,000 kilometres. This is not just a step forward in rocket science for a country like Iran, it is not even a technological leap, it is something more. And how, in such a short period of time, did Iran manage to achieve such results is a serious question. The suspicion arises that it was Russia that provided Iran with such technology, and Tehran was able to create such a potentially dangerous weapon for Israel and many neighbouring countries. Certainly, Tel Aviv does not like that, and it will respond accordingly. But it is difficult to say what specific way it will opt for. And this type of cooperation requires as you know from the whole Israeli strategy, silence. And for sure, it will continue at this level of secrecy," Kovalenko said.

Israeli military expert David Gendelman also expressed his opinion about Ukrainian-Israeli cooperation.

"The Israeli policy of supplying weapons to Ukraine is dictated by the difference between Israel's military and political situation and that of other Western countries, which are not currently engaged in active combat operations and can therefore concentrate on helping Ukraine if they wish. And Israel is constantly fighting on many fronts with varying degrees of intensity: special operations in Iran, air raids in Syria, periodic escalation in Gaza, and repelling rocket attacks on Israeli cities. And some of these fronts are directly linked to Russia, in particular the Russian Armed Forces grouping in Syria and Russia's military cooperation with Iran. Therefore, Israel is not supplying arms to Ukraine so as not to aggravate relations with Russia, which could turn into a military clash with it.

In theory, Israel, as one of the largest arms exporters, could provide Ukraine with a wide range of weapons, but in practice, it does not do so for the reasons mentioned above and limits itself to humanitarian and non-lethal aid, such as the missile warning system currently being deployed, intelligence exchange, etc.

However, war and the international situation have their dynamics, so gradually Israel's cooperation with Ukraine is also increasing, but not yet in terms of the supply of lethal armaments. Similarly with the Merkava tanks. So far it is a question of negotiations on possible sales to other countries. But even if such an agreement is signed, the Merkava will still not be supplied to Ukraine, either directly or via some third country. But if those third countries want to transfer their tanks to Ukraine and buy Israeli tanks instead, it is their own business. However, it is by no means Israeli supplies to Ukraine," David Gendelman said.