Hens of Resistance: How chicken coop attack eclipsed Hezbollah’s retaliatory claims Israel keeps control over conflict dynamics

On August 25, Hezbollah, the pro-Iranian group that controls Lebanon, announced it had launched over 320 missiles and drones targeting 11 Israeli military bases. This offensive was reportedly in retaliation for the assassination of Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah's chief of general staff, by Israeli forces. In response, the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) reported conducting preemptive strikes against Hezbollah facilities in Lebanon, from which rockets were allegedly being prepared for launch into Israel. The IDF claimed that "hundreds of IAF fighter jets hit thousands of Hezbollah rocket launchers."

Both international agencies and the involved parties have since stated that they do not seek further escalation. They acknowledged the exchanges but suggested that no further conflict was intended.

However, the situation is more complex. Since October 8, 2023, Hezbollah, a key player in the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance, has been targeting northern Israel with artillery fire, primarily within a 5-15 kilometre range. The Axis of Resistance also includes Hamas in Gaza, various Syrian militias, the Bashar al-Assad regime, Iraqi militias from the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), and the Yemeni Houthis, all of whom support Hamas in its conflict with Israel. Hezbollah has indicated that it would agree to a ceasefire only if Israel halts its military actions in Gaza and withdraws from the region.

Despite its capabilities, including Radwan special forces trained for high-risk operations, Hezbollah has refrained from launching extensive strikes into Israeli territory, opting instead for border area shelling. Since the conflict began, Hezbollah's consistent attacks on northern Israel have led to numerous Israeli military casualties, damaged tanks, and destroyed military equipment. These assaults, involving thousands of rockets and UAVs targeting Israeli settlements and bases, have resulted in civilian deaths and displaced around 60,000 Israelis. In retaliation, Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon have caused casualties among Hezbollah fighters and displaced approximately 100,000 Lebanese.

Israel's strategy has included targeting Hezbollah’s leadership. Throughout the conflict, several high-ranking commanders of the group have been killed. The assassination of Fuad Shukr is part of this broader campaign. Despite Hezbollah's retaliation, there is no substantial evidence of significant Israeli defeats, such as satellite images of burning bases. Many of the launched missiles and drones were likely intercepted by Israeli air defence systems.

Amidst Hezbollah's retaliatory strikes, reports emerged showing damaged structures and a burning chicken coop in Israel's Galilee region. The group's harsh response led to a flurry of mockery in the Middle Eastern blogosphere. One blogger criticized the effectiveness of Hezbollah’s retaliation, noting, "The response to Israel resulted in the destruction of a chicken coop, the death of chickens, and the breaking of thousands of eggs. You are mocking the Arab people."

A Kuwaiti user added to the ridicule by sharing a photo of a dead chicken, commenting, “Hassan Nasrallah's response! Hezbollah's answer! The number of injured chickens has risen to 27, with 5 in serious condition, suffering first-degree burns to their beaks and wings after the chicken coop was targeted in retaliation for the killing of Fuad Shukr.”

The jokes quickly spread, with comments like, “The chicken massacre was not an accident but a strategic plan! The goal? To prevent opponents from gloating about the ineffectiveness of the attacks, claiming ‘They didn’t even touch a chicken.’ That’s why Hezbollah went after the chickens!” Another quip read, “Hezbollah excels in its ability to pinpoint chickens!”

Hezbollah possesses a significant arsenal of missiles and drones, theoretically enabling it to attempt a comprehensive breach of Israeli defences by targeting the entire country. Theoretically, the group could launch a massive assault on key military bases and infrastructure. However, such a strategy would require an intense barrage of thousands of rockets and drones over several days to potentially overwhelm Israeli air defences — a tactic Hezbollah has so far avoided due to the potential for a severe Israeli response.

In summary, the escalation of the conflict reveals Israel's effective control over the situation, a concept American political scientist John Mearsheimer describes as "escalation dominance." Israel has demonstrated its ability to escalate the conflict by targeting Hezbollah leaders without incurring significant additional damage. This approach undermines Hezbollah’s position, increasing the danger faced by its leadership while allowing Israel the freedom to continue targeting key members of the group’s hierarchy.

Despite these challenges, Hezbollah remains a formidable force. The group’s underground networks in Lebanon, which provide safe havens for sabotage teams, along with its missile capabilities, make it a persistent threat to Israel. Hezbollah shows no signs of halting its attacks on northern Israel, maintaining its strategic offensive.