How the war in Ukraine threatens the nuclear non-proliferation regime? Bombarding the continent

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has led to significant global security cataclysms, such as arms proliferation, human rights violations, energy deficit, and global supply chain disruption. Recently, the growing escalation in the Ukrainian front revealed another major threat – nuclear proliferation.

Since the Cold War era, the leading global powers maintained a nuclear non-proliferation policy to prevent rogue states' possible misuse of nuclear weapons. In this vein, 191 countries have joined the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

Thirty years ago, nine countries had nuclear weapons — the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, India, Israel, Pakistan, and North Korea. Today, 30 years later, there are still nine nuclear-armed states, while countries like Iraq, Libya, and Syria were coerced, militarily or diplomatically, to halt their nuclear weapons programs.

Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus agreed to remove Soviet-era nuclear weapons from their territories and joined the NPT as non-nuclear weapon states. As in the case of Ukraine, the country voluntarily removed nuclear weapons by signing the Budapest Memorandum, which committed Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States to safeguard Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

As a result, in a February 19 speech, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asserted that Russia’s aggression “put in doubt” the package of decisions contained in the memorandum, presumably including Ukraine’s decision to renounce nuclear weapons.

The ongoing war in Ukraine renewed the concerns in the West regarding the importance of non-proliferation. In fact, the nuclear non-proliferation regime permits access to nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, forbids non-nuclear-weapon states from making weapons using this technology and urges states with nuclear weapons to pursue disarmament in good faith.

This conflict has recalibrated the importance of nuclear weapons in the global political system, giving rise to the debate about whether Russia would have taken the steps it did had Ukraine been in possession of nuclear weapons. The lesson here is that nuclear weapons are essential for establishing a deterrent and ensuring the survival of a state, particularly in the face of a nuclear-armed or conventionally strong rival.

Even if true, Ukraine will not be the last non-nuclear country seeking access to nuclear weapon technology. Russia's destructive hybrid warfare strategy towards its neighbourhood recently triggered debates in these countries about hosting nuclear weapons on their soils as a deterrent force.

For example, in 2022, former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe suggested that Japan should consider hosting U.S. nuclear weapons, though Prime Minister Fumio Kishida turned down the suggestion.

Moreover, in January 2023, South Korean President Yoon Suk-you said the country would consider building nuclear weapons or asking the U.S. to deploy them on its territory if the North Korean nuclear threat grew. Instead of this decision, the country agreed with the U.S. that Washington would periodically send U.S. nuclear-armed submarines to South Korea and involve Seoul in its nuclear planning.

The U.S. and Western allies acknowledge the fact that more states acquiring nuclear weapons would undermine the effectiveness of the nuclear non-proliferation regime. Another U.S. ally in Eastern Europe, Poland, which is one of the most prominent supporters of Ukraine against Russia, recently announced that it is seeking to enter into a Nuclear Sharing Program with the United States. Under this agreement, B61 nuclear bombs would be stored in the country, and the Polish Air Force would be trained to operate them.

Considering Russia's frequent threats to Poland, its willingness to obtain an additional deterrent factor sounds rational. Also, Poland's stance on nuclear weapons is a reactionary move to Russia’s recent decision to deploy nuclear warheads in neighbouring Belarus.

Consequently, nuclear sharing is part of NATO's nuclear deterrence, where non-nuclear members are allowed to host nuclear weaponry of their allies on their territory. Germany, Belgium, Italy, Turkey, and the Netherlands take part in the program.

Kyiv’s concern in the context of the war is that Russia is preparing another major provocation in Ukraine's territory to inflict notorious damage amid mounting losses on the battlefield. Namely, Ukraine claims that Moscow will probably destroy the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe's largest nuclear power plant that relied mainly on Kakhovka Reservoir. The reservoir was recently blown up, likely by the Russian forces, causing an unprecedented ecocide in the continent since the Chornobyl catastrophe.

If pro-nuclear rhetoric continues to prevail in the West and Russia while the prominent actors fail to regulate such matters by establishing a consensus, the non-proliferation regime will be unproductive. The nuclear threat looks more real amid Russia’s warnings about the possibility of using nuclear weapons to deter intervention by NATO member countries. Therefore, urgent steps must be taken to prevent the further erosion of the global nuclear order based on the norms of international law.