How Western influence fueling Armenian aggression against Azerbaijan Strategic chaos

The Armenian Armed Forces have once again shelled Azerbaijani positions in Kalbajar district, according to a statement from the Azerbaijani Defence Ministry. More detailed information has already been published. The Azerbaijani Army has implemented effective countermeasures in response to these provocations.

It is important to highlight a discernible and consistent trend. Since August 15, the Armenian armed forces have shelled Azerbaijani positions in the Nakhchivan direction three times, and on August 19 in Kalbajar district. This pattern seems to be linked not only to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Azerbaijan but also to the apparent plans of external forces to encourage Armenia’s leadership to pursue provocative and revanchist strategies.

It is evident that the United States, France, and the European Union are simultaneously arming Armenia while inciting it to aggressive actions against Azerbaijan. This strategy appears to be aimed at pressuring Azerbaijan and advancing their own interests in the region. Such attempts at both military and political pressure on the country are not new; they have become a standard approach for several nations, to which Azerbaijan consistently responds promptly and decisively.

In this context, the concern extends beyond Azerbaijan's prompt and resolute response; it involves a larger strategic manoeuvre by the United States, France, and the EU to further their interests in the region. The "managed chaos" strategy, previously applied in various global contexts, is now being deployed in the South Caucasus.

This policy was evident for over a quarter of a century while 20 per cent of Azerbaijan's territory remained under Armenian occupation. The lack of sanctions against Armenia for its numerous crimes against Azerbaijan and its people supports this conclusion. Likewise, the annual financial assistance from the US to the Karabakh separatists and the enactment of the notorious Section 907 amendment by Congress in 1992, when Armenia occupied Shusha and perpetrated the Khojaly massacre underscore, this trend. Now, the situation has escalated to the point where the US has even deployed a military advisor to the Armenian Ministry of Defence.

France's alignment with the occupying power, Armenia, should also be pointed out. This was most evident during the 44-day war when President Emmanuel Macron criticized Azerbaijan in an attempt to halt the restoration of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. His efforts proved futile, and the French Senate's disgraceful decision to recognize the so-called "independence" of the "Artsakh" project remained a worthless piece of paper. Such is the price of Macron's policy.

This policy is being enacted now, manifesting in the militarization of Armenia. Armenia is once again being cast as the primary destabilizing force in the South Caucasus. The country’s chosen strategy of territorial claims against Azerbaijan and Türkiye has isolated it from major economic and transportation projects.

It is worth noting that these projects were realized by Azerbaijan in defiance of the plans of the United States. While Washington now acknowledges Azerbaijan's crucial role in ensuring Europe's energy security, we remember how Azerbaijan achieved this status. We also recall that Azerbaijan's restoration of territorial integrity occurred despite the plans and desires of the US and France.

These countries stubbornly refuse to accept the new reality. As a result, there is growing support for Armenian revanchism and a surge of information pressure on Azerbaijan from Western media, which distort events in the region and fail to condemn Armenia for its recent blatant military provocations.

We do not rule out further provocations from Armenia, possibly linked to the scheduled visit of French President Emmanuel Macron to Yerevan on September 21, as reported by Armenian media. Yerevan is likely attempting to "prove" the need for additional funding and armament under the pretext of a "threat" from Azerbaijan. In Baku, the intentions of Armenia and its supporters are well-recognized and comprehended, leading to informed conclusions and responses.