India - Russia partnership underlines high-stakes Game of economies

On July 8, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi landed in Moscow to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss economic, energy, and security partnerships. The visit is Modi's first since Russia launched its campaign in Ukraine and since he was returned to power last month as leader of the world's most populous country. While Modi's visit to Russia aimed to upgrade ties with Russia, it disappointed the United States (US), another major Indian ally, and Ukraine.

On the other hand, Modi’s visit to Russia and expressed willingness to deepen ties with Russia shed light on the limitations of the Western attempts to isolate Moscow from international politics amid its invasion of Ukraine. Russia has neither been isolated internationally nor hobbled economically despite the West's best efforts.

A month earlier, PM Modi met with US President Joe Biden in Washington, where the two leaders struck a defense, trade, and technology partnership and deepened relations over shared concerns about China’s influence in the region. Despite the historical partnership between Washington and New Delhi, India pursues a balanced foreign policy that is in line with its own interests and contributes to a global strategic balance.

Consequently, for India, the close defense and economic partnership with the US does not constitute a necessity to downgrade the partnership with Russia despite its brutal war in Ukraine. For India, Russia is a key and cheap exporter of fossil fuels. Hence, despite international sanctions, India now gets more than 40 percent of its oil imports from Russia. Even Russia's recent blossoming strategic partnership with China did not prevent India from striking deals with Moscow. However, major Western powers cultivated ties with India as a bulwark against China and its growing influence in the Asia Pacific. India is a major financial lifeline for Russia, with trade between the two countries amounting to nearly $65 billion last year.

Interestingly, PM Modi’s visit to Moscow occurred shortly after the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s (SCO) recent Astana summit, where Vladimir Putin hailed the defense and security partnership with Beijing as a historic, likely boosting India's concerns. Indeed, India’s tensions with neighboring China have heated up in recent years over a disputed Himalayan border, which has resulted in India becoming increasingly estranged in forums where China plays a prominent role. As such, India is concerned about potential isolationism in light of the Russia-China axis in the Eurasian continent.

In this regard, India made additional inroads into Russia to keep the pulse on its relations with Beijing while doing business with Moscow. However, India's flirting with Russia and willingness to increase crude oil imports and coal will likely jeopardize relations with the US in the mid-term.

Russia's enthusiasm for strengthening the SCO format leaves India only one option: relying on the BRICS format, which comprises countries like Brazil, China, South Africa, Iran, and others. Unlike the SCO, which is dominated by Chinese influence in partnership with Russia and Pakistan, BRICS enables India to promote its own agenda based on pragmatic views. Undoubtedly, India’s pragmatism reflects its opportunism in terms of PM Modi’s visit to Russia and deepening partnership.

For example, New Delhi purchases 60% of its armaments from Russia, though currently, imports are strained due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. Ironically, during the most recent meeting of G7 countries, Indian PM Modi held a face-to-face meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, expressing his sympathy. Therefore, it is evident that India seeks to affirm its “independent foreign policy” rather than embracing anti-Kyiv and pro-Russian foreign policy. The bilateral partnership with Moscow opens new horizons for India, enabling it to reap the strategic benefits of closer ties with it. Notwithstanding, Modi's close ties with Russia will test its strategic partnership with the US. However, amid the current geopolitical turmoil and uncertainty, the US is unlikely to have severe relations with India at this stage.