Moscow's intransigence puts the kibosh on Yerevan's aspirations for closer EU ties North or West dilemma

Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has announced that the country will apply to join the EU by autumn at the latest. In a closed-door meeting with members of the Armenian National Assembly, he said that the country's security interests require it to become a candidate for EU membership. Armenian media have also reported that Armenia's application for EU membership will be discussed at a private session of the National Assembly with the participation of deputies from the Civil Contract faction and Armenian security minister Grigoryan.

Grigoryan is known as a pro-Western politician. He has recently made headlines for his harsh criticism of Moscow. Last week, speaking on Armenian state television, he described Yerevan's dependence on Russia since 1991 as a "strategic mistake". At the same time, when asked if Armenia was ready to consider EU membership, the Armenian politician noted that if the EU offered Yerevan membership, it would respond. "The EU has a very broad agenda with Armenia: from visa liberalisation to the European Instrument for Peace," Grigoryan boasted, mentioning that France has launched large-scale military-technical cooperation with Armenia, providing weapons with advanced technologies.

Earlier, the same Grigoryan, speaking at an event dedicated to the Year of the EU Mission in Armenia, expressed Armenia's desire to participate in the EU's civilian security missions and to help in the full implementation of their mandates. "We see the EU as an important partner in the diversification of Armenia's security and economy," he said.

It should be noted that Armenia's unbridled ambition to join the European Union is not surprising, especially since Yerevan has been raving about the idea since the Sargsyan regime. At that time (2013), Moscow quashed Yerevan's EU aspirations by preventing Armenia from signing the Association Agreement with the EU, and Sargsyan returned to Yerevan in a very foul mood. But later, in 2017, in an interview with Radio Liberty, he clearly dodged saying that it was supposedly the EU that had denied Armenia the opportunity to sign the Association Agreement. It seems that in this way the former leader of the Karabakh clan was trying to rehabilitate his failed foreign policy in the eyes of the Armenian society.

Armenia's current plans to join the European Union imply a change in the country's foreign policy course, no matter how much the country's authorities assert the contrary. While Armenia openly expresses its commitment to European values, the country's authorities at the same time declare that Yerevan is not considering revising its foreign policy. In this context, it is appropriate to ask the question: how can Armenia join the European Union if it is still a member of the CSTO and the EAEU? After all, there is no doubt that within the EU, the prospect of Armenia's membership is linked to its withdrawal from the Eurasian integration projects. There is no other way.

Moreover, Russia's unwillingness to let Armenia out of its zone of influence makes the task of Yerevan's accession to the EU even more difficult. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently confirmed this with targeted messages to Yerevan, urging Armenia to decide on the country's future foreign policy course. But the Armenian side, in an attempt to play a double game, has traditionally tried to evade responsibility, limiting itself to declarative statements.

Last week, Ruben Rubinian, deputy speaker of the Armenian parliament, told a panel discussion on peace in the South Caucasus at the Antalya Diplomatic Forum: "Armenia is not discussing withdrawal from the EAEU."

"Such an issue is not on the agenda," Rubinian brushed off journalists' questions about whether Yerevan's rapprochement with the EU would affect the republic's exit from the EAEU.

It is worth noting that the paradox of Pashinyan's policy is that on the one hand, Yerevan does not exclude the permanent "freezing" of Armenia's activities in the CSTO, while on the other hand, it states that the issue of Armenia's withdrawal from the EAEU is not on the country's agenda. The fact that Yerevan wants to please the EU and does not dare to break with Russia again points to Armenia's dual policy, which, by the way, has long displeased both Russia and the EU.

Vasily Koltashov, a Russian economist, political scientist, and director of the Institute of New Society shares this view. As he noted in a conversation with a Caliber.Az journalist, Armenia wants to sit on two chairs - Eurasian and European.

"Following Pashinyan's logic, why not try to enter two doors simultaneously? Accordingly, the Armenian prime minister may announce this strategy without batting an eyelid, as he usually does in his controversial style. That is to say, to propose contradictory things at the same time, or to say one thing and do the opposite. Nevertheless, in my opinion, Armenia will not join the European Union; most likely Nikol Pashinyan will continue to play on this theme," Koltashov noted.

"Armenia's accession to the European Union is a path to economic disaster, and since it is on the verge of breaking off relations with Russia, it may lose important trade contacts with Moscow. Of course, Pashinyan cares little about this, but the firmness of Russia's position, which Sergei Lavrov outlined the other day, is expressed in the fact that Moscow will simply break off relations with Armenia. And then Pashinyan will have to face the consequences of his tricks, because without Russia's protection, without its trade promotion, who will take care of Armenia? France? And maybe NATO will protect it?" Koltashov said, adding that Armenia is playing on the brink of the collapse of its statehood, which still rests solely on Russian support.