“Only Türkiye can save the European Union from the deadlock” Experts weigh in on Erdoğan’s statement

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has stated that the only way to save the European Union is through Türkiye’s full membership. "Only Türkiye can save the European Union from the deadlock it has found itself in, in matters of economy, defense, and international authority. Only Türkiye and its full membership can throw a lifeline to Europe, whose economy and demographic structure are rapidly aging. The sooner the EU accepts this reality, the better for it. As always, we want to move forward in a constructive manner in the process of our membership, based on mutual benefit and respect. If the necessary determination is shown, we can quickly achieve results,” Erdoğan said after a government meeting.

But what lies beneath these statements from the Turkish leader? Does he genuinely want Türkiye to join the EU, or are there other motives at play? And how might Europe’s political elite respond under the current conditions?

These questions are addressed by leading Turkish experts in an exclusive interview with Caliber.Az.

Political commentator for the Turkish TV channel NTV, Ümit Nazmi Hazır, believes that Türkiye's significance to the EU has significantly increased in the current conditions.

"Before Trump’s election, there was harmony and unity between Europe and the United States. The West was united. Europe embodied the soft power of the West, while the U.S. represented its hard power. However, with Trump’s arrival, the unity between the U.S. and Europe began to unravel. The European Union has started to painfully realize that under Trump, the U.S. is no longer its ally. The first signal of this was received at the recent Munich Conference. The European Union does not hold much significance in the world order that Trump envisions. He wants the EU to become ineffective and weak. In the Trump era, the EU began to understand that its influence in global politics would further diminish due to its lack of military power. Because in the liberal world order, rules, norms, and values were important, and the European Union played a key role. But now we are entering a post-liberal world order, where military power, the use of hard power, conservatism, and populism are coming to the forefront," the political scientist clarified.

For this reason, he noted, the EU has started seeking new solutions and is contemplating how it can become an effective player in global politics.

"Therefore, Türkiye's significance for the European Union has been increasing. The EU lacks military power. For this reason, there is a shortage of participants in resolving the Ukrainian issue. On the other hand, Türkiye has a strong military. Europe needs Türkiye's military power more than ever. Erdoğan made this statement because he saw this. If the European Union had accepted Türkiye as a member, the EU would now be a more effective global player. If Türkiye were a member, the European Union would not just remain a Christian club. If Türkiye became a member of the European Union, it could cover other regions and benefit from Türkiye's influence in the Middle East and Eurasia.

Another point is that the European Union needs Türkiye more as a counterbalance to Russia. Türkiye also does not want Russia to be the dominant power in the Black Sea, which is why it does not want Ukraine to emerge from the war as the loser. This is also why Erdoğan recently hosted Zelenskyy in Ankara. The European Union and Türkiye both need each other to balance Russia in the Black Sea...

Membership in the European Union has always been an official policy of Türkiye. In the early 2000s, Türkiye had every chance to become a member of the EU. At that time, Türkiye was more secular, democratic, and its economy was more developed. Since then, Türkiye has changed. Therefore, Türkiye’s membership in the European Union may not happen in the short term. But we can still say that Türkiye’s significance for the European Union has increased in the Trump era," Hazır underlined.

PhD in History, Middle East expert, and associate professor at the Department of Foreign Regional Studies at Moscow State Linguistic University, Mehmet Emin Ikbal Dürre, in turn, stated that, of course, Türkiye wants to join the EU and has never abandoned this idea.

"All the country's leaders in various positions at different times have confirmed this stance. The fact is that Trump’s position on Ukraine is causing a division within the Euro-Atlantic security system. And in the new circumstances, Europe may need Türkiye more in this context.

In principle, based on the current state of affairs, this makes sense. But there are also questions. First, we don't know how the position of the U.S. might change tomorrow. Secondly, the rising right-wing forces in the EU could be fundamentally opposed to rapprochement with Türkiye, ignoring all rational preconditions. So, in my opinion, the Turkish president’s latest statement is primarily driven by the aforementioned circumstances.

However, when it comes to the EU agreeing to accept Türkiye into its fold, I have serious doubts. The issue here is not rationality, but principle," Dürre believes.