“Pashinyan dances to the tune of the West and follows its instructions” Expert insight

Caliber.Az interview with Russian expert Sergey Borovikov, a leading analyst of the Association for Cross-Border Cooperation.

 - Armenian Prime Minister announced recently that the country will leave the  Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Do you think this is the final decision of the Armenian authorities or is Yerevan testing the waters to gauge Moscow's reaction?

- Nikol Pashinyan is currently only announcing plans to leave the CSTO, without setting any concrete deadlines. Therefore, it is likely a kind of trial balloon, PR, and an attempt to irritate Russia, and nothing more. At the same time, I believe it is also a way to test the waters to study the reaction within Armenia itself.

- Looking a bit ahead, if Armenia does leave the military bloc, will this be followed by the withdrawal of the Russian base from Gyumri, an exit from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and so on?

- I think systemic pressure on the Russian base in Gyumri will persist as long as Pashinyan remains in power and continues his pro-Western policy. As for Armenia leaving the EAEU, that is unlikely at this stage, since Armenian businesses are heavily invested in this integration and are unlikely to be pleased with such a rash move by the Armenian authorities.

- The recent visit of US Assistant Secretary of State James O’Brien to Yerevan confirmed that Armenia has begun implementing Western instructions received on April 5 in Brussels at the EU-US-Armenia trilateral meeting. Does this mean that after Yerevan and Washington agreed to enhance their strategic partnership, American military bases could appear in Armenia?

- Pashinyan has long been dancing to the tune of the West and following its instructions. Nevertheless, everything is currently held together by words and PR. The US is already militarily entangled in Ukraine and Israel, not to mention the approaching issue with Taiwan. Therefore, the Americans are not in a position to focus on Armenia and establishing military bases there.

- How do you assess the likelihood of Armenia joining the EU in the medium term?

- In neither the medium nor long term is it possible for Armenia to join the EU for several reasons. Firstly, Armenia does not share borders with the EU, and it is entirely unclear how they would interact with open markets. Secondly, the changing internal political situation in the EU, particularly the sharp shift to the right following the recent European Parliament elections, gives Armenia little hope in this matter. The EU has been promising Türkiye membership for fifty years without delivering, so Armenia's chances are even slimmer.

- Will Nikol Pashinyan decide to amend the Constitution of Armenia to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan?

- Pashinyan says and signs what the West dictates to him, but he cannot change the constitution with a single stroke of the pen. For this, he needs the support of broad parliamentary forces and adherence to certain procedures, which are not easily organized on Western command. Therefore, the issue of revising the constitution is postponed indefinitely. Given the active protests against Pashinyan within Armenia, it will be difficult for him to change the constitution under such conditions.

- How do you see the future of Armenian-Russian relations?

- In the long term, it will depend on the geopolitical situation and the West. However, in the medium term, it is unlikely that Armenia can exist without Russia. I believe Armenian-Russian relations will be restored in some form, but certainly not under Nikol Pashinyan's regime.