Russia refuses to shoulder the blame for the Armenian people's misfortunes Experts ponder Moscow-Yerevan rift

After the Antalya Diplomatic Forum, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made a comment that may be seen as a warning to Moscow and a clue to Yerevan about the current situation. This might mean that Russia may reevaluate its relations with Armenia. Motivated by the fact that the CSTO did not denounce the actions of official Baku, Lavrov recalled that official Yerevan did not consent to the deployment of the CSTO observation mission on the conditional border with Azerbaijan: "However, after that Armenia allowed the EU mission to the border. Although it was not rejected, the EU did not denounce Azerbaijan either."

Lavrov claims that these conditions make it necessary to reevaluate several issues pertaining to relations with Armenia.

However, when the Russian Foreign Minister mentioned that relations with Armenia might be revised, what did he mean specifically? A correspondent of Caliber.Az put this question to Russian political experts.

Stanislav Mitrakhovich, a researcher at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation and an expert of the National Energy Security Fund, believes that the Russian Foreign Minister's statement should be interpreted mainly as a reaction to Armenia's announcement regarding the suspension of its participation in the CSTO.

"Russia will regard as irrelevant several of Armenia's commitments outlined in the CSTO Protocol if Armenia suspends its participation. Future developments about the Russian military base's status and other matters are likely to result from this. These modifications may also have an impact on trade, as some Armenian items enter Russian territory. Yes, Russia uses Armenia as a conduit for parallel imports, but the corridor through Armenia is far less important compared to the massive and powerful China," Mitrakhovich said.

Anar Hasanov, an associate professor at the mass communications department of the Peoples' Friendship University of Russia and a political scientist, highlighted that Lavrov's statement could be interpreted as suggesting a potential shift from friendship to enmity within a day.

This aligns with Lavrov's intentions, even though Armenia has yet to take concrete actions. Despite some gestures from both sides, such as the ICC decision from Armenia leading to Putin's inability to visit, Russia's responses have been relatively restrained, like imposing bans on certain Armenian products, a ban on "Jermuk" mineral water, on cognac, on caviar.

"While a rupture in diplomatic relations with Armenia is not anticipated at the moment, the likelihood of Yerevan's withdrawal from the CSTO is high. Nevertheless, Russia is unlikely to be greatly affected by this development," he said.

Armenia's potential withdrawal from the CSTO could occur automatically if it violates the provisions outlined in the military bloc's charter, according to the expert's viewpoint.

"The seventh article of the CSTO charter, for instance, grants the bloc members the authority to expel any violator who establishes connections with Western military infrastructure," Hasanov noted.

"Interestingly, this situation could actually benefit Moscow. By isolating Armenia from the organization, Russia would be able to avoid any claims or accusations from Yerevan regarding CSTO obligations. Therefore, Russia perceives Armenia's departure from the CSTO not as a significant tragedy, but rather as an opportunity to address various issues. Russia aims to avoid engaging in conflicts on multiple fronts and does not wish to shoulder the blame for the Armenian people's misfortunes. Instead, it consistently emphasizes that the Armenian government is responsible for the troubles faced by its society," the expert concluded.