Russian migrants will be followed by Russian expansion, Georgian experts warn Maisaya, Kopadze talk to Caliber.Az

A bill to halt the issuance of short-term and investment residence permits to Russian citizens until the end of 2024 has been submitted to the Georgian parliament, Roman Gotsiridze, an MP from the opposition group Eurooptimists, said. He noted that after the start of the war with Ukraine, Russians began to move to Georgia en masse and buy property here in order to obtain residence permits. This led to the rise in prices and problems with buying and renting flats for residents of the republic.

"Due to the difficult socio-economic situation in Georgia, there has recently been a mass outflow of Georgian citizens, and in response, a large number of Russian citizens are entering the country," Gotsiridze said quoted by Radio Nor.

According to the republic's legislation, investment or purchase of property worth the equivalent of $300,000 entitles one to a five-year residence permit. After this period, one can apply for a permanent residence permit. For an investment of $100,000, a one-year residence permit is granted.

According to Gotsiridtse, during the year and a half of the war, Russians bought 10,000 flats in Georgia, which is an indicator of their long-term residence in the republic. He noted that most of these newcomers "have significant financial resources", which allows them to buy "other types of property" and establish businesses here.

Earlier, Georgian President Salome Zurabichvili said that Russians who fled to the republic from war and mobilisation posed a threat to the country. "We cannot just allow any number of Russians to come to the territory of Georgia without knowing who they are. There is a danger that this Russian-speaking population could be used by Russia for intervention under the pretext of their insecurity," she said.

According to the Georgian Interior Ministry, 112,733 Russian citizens arrived in Georgia in the first nine months of 2022 alone and did not go back to Russia or to third countries. 3,300 of them were granted Georgian citizenship, the Justice Ministry reported.

How dangerous is this trend for Georgia? Does this state of affairs really increase the risks of possible intervention by Russia? Did the deputies initiate the right restrictive bill?

Georgian experts agreed to answer these questions for Caliber.Az.

According to Professor Vakhtang Maisaya, a doctor of military and political sciences, there is logic in the opposition group's draft law.

"Because there is almost a glut of Russian migrants in Georgia now, and the Kremlin is using them as 'soft power'. We even have their hacker groups in the country, which hunt for other Russians who have moved here, those who speak from anti-Kremlin positions. That is, they are infiltrating here. So I think the Kremlin's "soft power" is already at work in Georgia. Perhaps this is Moscow's new strategy to turn Georgia away from its pro-Western orientation and re-subordinate it to itself. This is already obvious," says the professor.

A major economic expansion is also underway, he added.

"Naturally, the influx of Russian citizens who want to obtain residence permits in exchange for investments poses a threat to Georgia's economic security already at the current stage. And after that, there will be a threat to the political security of the state already. Therefore, I would consider it absolutely logical for the Parliament to adopt the proposed draft law in the interests of Georgia's national security. It already looks very shaky.

However, I think that the ruling class will not go for it. The Georgian Dream party has actually already shifted to a neutral foreign policy orientation and is even flirting with the Kremlin. Unfortunately, it is very likely that Russian expansion into Georgia will only increase. So I absolutely agree with Mr Gotsiridze here," Maisaya said.

In turn, the head of the Academy of International Relations, Director General of the Foundation for the Development of Georgian-Azerbaijani Relations Simon Kopadze said that this is a very necessary and timely bill aimed at suspending the purchase of Georgian real estate by Russian citizens.

"Personally, I would introduce even tougher measures. For example, I would restore the visa regime for Russian citizens wishing to enter Georgia. It is time to cancel those paradisiacal conditions that our state provides to Russian citizens. The possibility of mass entry and freedom to buy property should be restricted for them," the head of the academy said.

Russians are always a danger for countries like Georgia, the expert said.

"They have very peculiar legislation. For example, they can suddenly introduce troops 'to help their citizens'. They can make a big mess. That is why I am in favour of approving this bill," Kopadze concluded.