“South Caucasus moves up higher on US agenda” Gordon Hahn for Caliber.Az

Caliber.Az presents its interview with American political analyst and expert consultant at Corr Analytics Gordon Hahn.

- The talks between Azerbaijani and Armenian foreign ministers moderated by Antony Blinken are taking place in Washington. In your opinion, what is the U.S. interest here – the true peace between the two countries or, as some believe, squeezing Russia out of the South Caucasus?

- There is a maximum goal and a minimum goal. The maximum would be to help and encourage Azerbaijan to take territories claimed by, or belonging to Armenia so as to discredit Moscow and force it to deploy some forces there burdening Moscow with a two-front war. The minimum goal is for Washington, not Moscow to be the arbiter of a peace agreement there that satisfies Yerevan helping to wean Armenia from the bear’s embrace.

- The Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations are taking place in three platforms - Moscow, Washington and Brussels. Which of theme has a higher chance of bringing reconciliation between Baku and Yerevan?

- If Moscow was not so distracted by the war in Ukraine, I would say Moscow, especially as the Biden administration is not trusted or very competent. However, in the present atmosphere, I would say Washington or Brussels could pull the rabbit out of the hat and be the Western party that steals the issue from Moscow.

- What role does the South Caucasus play in U.S. foreign policy? And what place does it occupy?

- The South Caucasus is, of course, a somewhat peripheral region for US ‘vital interests,’ which seem to be considered by Washington to be any region on the planet. But the South Caucasus does have a few geopolitical ‘advantages’ that moves the region up higher on the US agenda. First, it is a region traditionally in the Russian sphere of influence, and the globalist-oriented Biden administration would like to undermine Russian influence because it is a bulwark against many aspects of the hyper-liberal globalist agenda. Second, it borders Iran which is another of the ‘rogue states’ Washington would like to foster regime change in. Third, it is a region of vital interest to Turkey, a NATO member, and can be used to persuade Ankara to behave as Washington and Brussels prefer. Of course, there is Azerbaijan’s oil as well.

- Iran's nuclear program. Is there enough time for its peaceful settlement or it's already late, so it needs to be solved by force?

- It is difficult to tell because much depends on the rather whimsical US and Israeli political systems and whether they produce administrations that would prefer diplomacy over the use of force. Right now, if force were to be the strategy, then Israel might be forced to act with limited US or NATO military involvement, since NATO weapons stores are already being depleted by the Ukraine mess, and Ukraine is a priority. Iran does appear to be very near to producing a weapon, but the process could be halted if an Israeli or Western threat was credible enough and a proposal to reengage talks on limiting the Teheran’s nuclear program was made as a carrot.

- China is considered to be the chief threat to the United States, while Russia is the second one. How does Washington intend to deter these threats? And is this even feasible in the case of China?

- Right now it appears that Washington thinks it can first deal with Russia and then move on to China. Certainly, a two-front war involving Ukraine and Taiwan would overburden the US economy and military, which is not prepared to fight such a war. However, China is unlikely to let Russia lose and will step in with aid and even military assistance should Moscow be seen as faltering. This could in fact provoke a two-front war. Washington and Brussels, meaning all of Europe, would have to re-gear their economies to more of an industrial footing and drastically increase investments in their military-industrial complexes or intervene in the war militarily to defeat Russia. Politically, the American, if not the entire Western public is so ignorant and brainwashed that it will be an easy task to convince them that Putin wanted to take all of Ukraine from the very start of the ‘special military operation’ as a supposed first step in his imperialist project. Therefore, even if Russia takes everything east of the Dnepr River, the West can call the war a victory for the US, NATO and the West and a ‘strategic defeat’ for Russia. So Biden and the rest of the West have nothing to lose in fighting the war. Washington cannot deter China from taking Taiwan by force, but Beijing plays very long games and can wait till the situation on Taiwan and in the world changes to allow reunification by peaceful means. The only tool Washington has now is massive sanctions against China which would cripple the US economy, especially since China would retaliate with its own sanctions. Both countries would likely plunge into depression.

- The Russia-Ukraine war. What is your estimate of its outcome? Can the U.S. weaken aid to Ukraine and if yes, under which circumstances?

- Objectively speaking, Russia is likely to win and is slowly winning. Again, Western armaments supplies are dwindling, according to US and NATO leaders’ own statements. Even a NATO military intervention would be crippled by insufficient ammunitions at least for the next two years. But again, even if Russian forces take everything east of the Dnepr, the West can call the war a victory for the US, NATO and the West and a ‘strategic defeat’ for Russia, since the public believes Putin wants to ‘conquer all of Ukraine.’ So Biden and the rest of the West have nothing to lose in fighting the war and can achieve its ‘subjective’ victory, while Russia will likely win an objective military victory. However, Moscow is likely to be faced even in the east with partisan guerilla insurgents even after a Ukrainian army flight to the west of the Dnepr and some truce or peace agreement. An underground terrorist and subversion campaign can be carried out by Ukrainians with Western backing for many years after the end of the war. But the war will last as long as the West insists on Ukraine’s right to join NATO and Ukraine seeks to join the alliance.