Trump's second term: Tough times ahead for European “freeloaders" Expert insights

In an exclusive interview with Caliber.Az, Russian political technologist and Candidate of Political Sciences Oleg Sidorov discusses the implications of Donald Trump's return to the White House. From the evolving US-China trade war and NATO reform to Europe's challenges under Trump's policies and the future of Ukraine’s NATO ambitions, Sidorov provides insightful analysis on how the new administration’s pragmatism and corporate-driven agenda may reshape global geopolitics.

— Oleg Nikolayevich, why do you think American voters preferred Trump over Harris?

— It’s an interesting question that requires a multifaceted analysis. Several factors come into play, particularly in areas like the economy, social policy, and both domestic and foreign policy. I believe one of the key reasons for Trump’s success in the election was widespread voter dissatisfaction with the state of the US economy. Trump was highly critical of Biden’s administration, including Vice President Kamala Harris, who, as part of the current team, failed to address this economic challenge effectively. Essentially, Trump continued to push his "MAGA — Make America Great Again" agenda, making the economy and domestic policy the focal points of his campaign. In domestic policy, Trump emphasized stricter immigration controls, bolstered border security with Mexico, improved law enforcement effectiveness, and pushed for reforms in education. Key issues such as deporting illegal immigrants, restricting social benefits for immigrants, combating criminal gangs and drug cartels, continuing the construction of the wall on the Mexican border, and increasing funding for law enforcement and the military were central to his platform. These policies resonated with voters and played a crucial role in driving support for Trump and his team.

Additionally, Trump’s stance on transgender rights attracted many voters. He actively opposed including transgender individuals in medical insurance and social support systems such as Medicaid and Medicare. By championing traditional values, Trump’s team secured the support of older voters. His initiative to ban gender-neutral education in schools and to prohibit transgender athletes from competing in women’s sports was seen by many Americans as a defence of "female identity."

As for foreign policy, Trump largely focused on the conflicts in Ukraine and the Arab-Israeli dispute, as well as tensions with China, the future of NATO, and revisiting the existing relationship with the EU. I believe these factors, taken together, gave Trump’s team an edge in the recent election.

— Do you think Trump will be able to fulfil these promises?

— In my opinion, many of the promises Trump made have a good chance of being realized. As of November 10, 2024, the Republicans hold 213 out of 435 seats in the House of Representatives. This already gives Trump a strong foundation for pushing his legislative initiatives. Additionally, Republicans also hold the majority in the US Senate, which further strengthens his position.

— Will the new US administration be able to end the conflict in Ukraine?

— Donald Trump is a prominent figure in the business world, and therefore, his actions must be assessed from the perspective of a businessman, where profit is the top priority. Given that the conflict in Ukraine has been beneficial to the interests of the US military-industrial complex and companies with interests in Europe, its resolution is unlikely to happen quickly. Let me provide some statistical facts.

According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), US arms exports increased by 17% from the period of 2014–2018 to 2019–2023, with their share of global arms exports rising from 34% to 42%. The main source of these orders comes from European countries. From 2019 to 2023, the US exported around 55% of its weapons to European states, compared to just 35% in 2014–2018. This is largely due to EU member states ordering new weapons to replenish stocks depleted by their aid to Ukraine.

In addition to companies linked to the military-industrial complex, profits are also being made by other corporations operating in the energy sector and other industries. American companies like Chevron and ExxonMobil, alongside British firms Shell and BP, and France's TotalEnergies, have been profiting significantly from the conflict in Ukraine since 2022, and this continues. According to a report from the consulting firm Global Witness, these five companies paid an unprecedented $111 billion to shareholders in 2023. Their net profits amounted to over $250 billion, which is 82% higher than the same period before the conflict. In reality, Trump made his fortune as a successful businessman, and now, in his political position, he will continue to defend the interests of major American corporations. Therefore, it is unlikely that Trump will quickly resolve the conflict in Ukraine.

— How does Moscow view Trump's return, and what do you think the future of Russian-American relations will be?

— In reality, Moscow doesn't have a strong preference for who wins the US presidential race, as both candidates are well-known and predictable. It’s important to remember that the US is essentially a mega-corporation, where the interests of big business prevail, and the president is primarily a spokesperson and executor of the business interests of those who sponsored and supported them.

That said, the Kremlin would likely prefer to see Biden remain in office. This is largely because his team is already well-understood by Moscow, and the moves made by the White House have often been anticipated by Russia.

As for Trump, there has been a shift in his team, which now needs to be reassessed. Additionally, the newly elected president is more dynamic in his actions compared to his predecessor, and his initiatives (though still just public promises) suggest that America is emerging from stagnation, both domestically and in its foreign policy.

— What could change in EU-US relations after January 2025?

— The EU will face the continuation of Trump’s policies, which were implemented during his first presidential term. European leaders are aware of this and are starting to seek ways to engage with the new-old occupant of the White House, hoping to soften his stance toward so-called "freeloading" countries. However, considering Trump’s sharp memory and how European leaders criticized him during the pressure he faced from Biden’s team, it’s safe to assume that nothing will change in this regard. Therefore, we can expect a tougher stance from the White House, possibly including economic sanctions against European companies.

Additionally, the debate about NATO’s future and European countries' involvement in its financing and strengthening will resume. It’s possible that Trump’s team will come to the conclusion that NATO is ineffective as an organization that doesn’t align with the White House’s interests and is, in fact, a costly burden on the US budget.

— So, do you anticipate the possibility of NATO reform under Donald Trump’s presidency?

— I believe Trump will continue the discussion on NATO reform, particularly revisiting member countries’ contributions in terms of financing, participation, and responsibility. As a pragmatist, Trump understands that the North Atlantic Alliance is more critical to Europe than to the US Therefore, it’s logical to assume that the financial burden of maintaining the organization will shift from the White House to Brussels and European states. Given the dependency of European countries on the US, we can expect a rather tough transformation of NATO under Trump.

— Will Ukraine join NATO in the next four years?

— The prospect of Ukraine joining NATO would have had some chance under the Biden administration, which was not particularly concerned with the actual financial burden the US shoulders for the North Atlantic bloc.

However, under Trump, US funding for NATO will likely be reduced, which will, in turn, prompt a reassessment of all aspects of the alliance’s existence. As a result, European countries will be forced to find ways to preserve the bloc as an organization, while the issue of new members will be postponed, as they say, until better times.

— Will the new US president escalate the trade war with China?

— That’s beyond question, as China’s economy continues to grow dynamically, capturing new markets worldwide, including in the US As a representative of business interests, Trump will undoubtedly continue the trade war with China while seeking to rally European countries to his side. However, it’s unlikely that China will simply stand by. Clearly, Beijing has already begun preparing for a new phase of the trade war with the US, strengthening its domestic market. Notably, China has enacted a law countering foreign sanctions and approved a list of foreign companies deemed to undermine its national interests.

However, it doesn’t stop there. Beijing is actively working to seize the initiative and secure key markets. On November 15, a grand opening ceremony was held in Peru for the mega-port of Chancay, designed to become a central logistics hub for trade with Asia. According to Chinese President Xi Jinping, the Chancay port will reduce the maritime route from Peru to China by 23 days and lower logistics costs by 20%, as goods from South America will no longer need to be shipped via Mexico. The project is expected to generate $4.5 billion in annual revenue for Peru.

This move highlights Beijing’s increased engagement with Washington's trade partners, positioning itself as an alternative leader in the global market. Needless to say, such developments are unlikely to be welcomed by the White House.