Arabica coffee futures hit two-month high on Brazilian frost concerns

On August 19, Arabica coffee futures in New York rose to a two-month high amid fears that repeated bouts of cold weather and light frost could weigh on output in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, according to Bloomberg.

“There’s growing concern that this year’s coffee crop in Brazil will be lower than expected due to adverse weather,” said Michael McDougall, an analyst at McDougall Global View.

“It is not only the current crop that is worrying, but the 2026 crop could be limited as well as bouts of cold weather are already inducing early stress flowering.”

The most-active futures contract climbed by as much as 2.6%, marking a fifth consecutive session of gains and putting the contract on course for its longest winning streak since April.

The recent rally has been driven by slower-than-anticipated exports from Brazil, with frost reports last weekend in key growing regions including Sul de Minas and Cerrado, prompting some short covering, said Harry Howard, a soft commodities broker at Sucden Financial Ltd.

He cautioned, however, that the rally “could be running out of steam” as trading volumes have fallen sharply over the past week.

According to a Coffee Trading Academy survey, Brazil’s combined arabica and robusta coffee output for the 2025-26 season is projected at 63.9 million 60-kg bags, down 2.1% from the previous year.

By Aghakazim Guliyev