US-Iran nuclear deal and scandal in America Shereshevsky's alignment

The nuclear deal with Iran is an extremely important issue that everyone is forced to discuss, although they are dead tired of the uncertain situation that has lasted for years.

The deal that the United States and several other countries struck with Iran in 2015 under President Barack Obama included the lifting of sanctions on Tehran in exchange for its refusal to develop a military nuclear program. Iran was not required to enrich uranium above 3.67 per cent, which is considered sufficient for civilian purposes. Thus, Tehran acquired broad opportunities for trade and foreign investment, while the United States received a nuclear-free Iran and could easily shift its attention to competing with China, its main rival.

In 2018, US President Donald Trump withdrew his country from the deal and brought down the heaviest sanctions in history on Tehran, which covered literally all areas of the economy. Most likely, he hoped to provoke an uprising in Iran and remove a regime hostile to Washington, as some experts and officials of his administration point out. This decision was not far-sighted from the point of view of the interests of the American state, especially since Trump set the same global goals as Obama and later Biden - to shift all attention, all the main US resources used in foreign policy, to competition with China.

The economy collapsed, most Iranians began to live on or below the poverty line, and outbreaks of mass protests followed one after another, but the Iranian regime still held out.

In a similar situation, Tehran decided to return to the military nuclear program, bringing the level of uranium enrichment to 84% (it takes 90% to create nuclear weapons, but some experts say that the Iranians already have the necessary stuffing or that it will take only about two weeks to break through to it). The integration of a nuclear device with missile weapons, which are being actively developed, produced, and modernized in Iran, will take another six months to two years. The United States is facing a real threat - a regime hostile to them may soon become a nuclear power.

In addition, the Iranians, in retaliation for the sanctions, launched attacks on American bases in the Middle East and on tankers in the Persian Gulf. Then Trump gave the order to kill the head of the elite forces of the IRGC - Qods, Qassem Soleimani, who led the covert operations of the Iranian regime abroad. It was a heavy blow (Soleimani is sometimes described as the regime's second-in-command after Supreme Leader Khamenei), but Tehran has not stopped its attacks on US targets. So, if Trump dreamed of exclusively competing with China, this did not work out. Iran has been a hotbed of tension throughout his presidency.

Almost from the first days of being in office, the administration of Democrat Joe Biden has been trying to return to the deal. They are interested in it for exactly the same reason that Obama once was - they are interested in confrontation with China, and not with Iran, since it is China that the Americans regard as a global threat. In addition, in the face of high energy prices, the US would like to throw cheap Iranian oil on the market.

However, negotiations have long stalled. One of the reasons is the US refusal to remove the marker of a terrorist organization from the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps. IRGC officials vowed to kill Trump after Trump ordered the assassination of IRGC Special Forces-Quds chief Qassim Soleimani. The Iranian vendetta has made it politically difficult for Biden to lift sanctions on an organization that has vowed to assassinate the Republican former US president. This could be a blow to the image of the Democratic Party. Moreover, the Iranians were not satisfied with the rejection of the vendetta, as this would mean a sign of weakness on the part of Tehran, which loudly announced revenge for Soleimani. Perhaps historians of the future will find these arguments ridiculous, but they sounded.

Since the IRGC is the core of the Iranian regime and owns or oversees enterprises that produce about half of GDP, including heavy industry and oil exports, the deal, without lifting the sanctions on the IRGC, has lost all meaning. No large, influential international company would invest in Iran or enter into contracts with Iranian enterprises in such a situation, risking an arrest warrant from US prosecutors.

Then the Americans began to discuss with Tehran the so-called "small nuclear deal". It pursued goals that are more modest. Now the United States did not require Iran to destroy its stocks of highly enriched uranium. They only wanted the Iranians to abandon the last step - a breakthrough to weapons-grade uranium and nuclear weapons. In addition, they hoped to get the Iranians to stop missile attacks on American diplomatic missions and military bases in Iraq and Syria (these attacks are carried out by local pro-Iranian militias, and they have already sharply reduced the frequency of attacks now).

In exchange, Washington was supposed to turn a blind eye to some increase in Iranian oil exports to China (this has already happened), unfreeze some Iranian assets abroad (in particular, it was about $ 7 billion in South Korean banks) and allow Iran to buy on the received funds for food and medicine (moreover, the Americans had to strictly control purchases).

An important element of the small nuclear deal is that it is based on secret diplomacy and verbal agreements. It is understood that the parties will not sign any papers, but will only exchange views and promise each other to do or not do some things.

Both parties are interested in this format. Biden's team does not want to give any reports to the US Congress, which is strong Republicans opposed to the deal. Any formal treaty as part of the renewal of the nuclear deal could trigger congressional intervention, with unpredictable consequences. This is especially important a year and a half before the elections. Nevertheless, no one is obliged to report all the details of oral secret negotiations; this would undermine the work of diplomats. For their part, Iran's rulers could receive additional billions of dollars to inject into their ailing economy and calm the rebellious population a bit.

A new blow came unexpectedly, and from where no one expected it.

The influential publication Politico and a number of other media have recently reported that a scandal with the special envoy for Iran, Robert Malley, is flaring up in the United States. It was he, who was the architect of the deal with Iran, and he dealt with this issue even in the administration of the Democrat Obama. When Biden became president, Malley was appointed special envoy for Iran and led all negotiations.

The publication reports that the admission of Rob Malley to work as a special envoy was suspended in early May. US officials said he was on paid leave for personal reasons.

However, later, a person familiar with this situation told the publication that the diplomatic security officers are investigating whether Malley can be allowed to work with classified information or not. Moreover. Politico also reported that the FBI was looking into the matter, according to another person familiar with the situation.

Intervention in the case of Malley by such an authority as the FBI indicates that everything that happens is by no means a minor incident. Clashes between the FBI and diplomats have happened before. Sometimes they led to the dismissal of diplomats from work, sometimes not. From the point of view of the diplomatic corps, his work is in the gray area between secret and open data, while the FBI may have a different point of view.

However, it is not just about the clash between two powerful bureaucracies. The problem is that Malley was not just a diplomat, but also one of the key figures in the Joe Biden administration, one of the most powerful figures. He, CIA Chief Burns, State Department Chief Blinken, and National Security Adviser Sullivan are one team with past ties to the Obama administration. A strike at one of them can be quite unpleasant for the rest and besides, in such a situation, the fate of the nuclear deal was again in question.