Vietnamese guest and American Pope Caliber.Az weekly review

The editorial team of Caliber.Az presents the latest episode of the "Sobitiya" (Events) program with Murad Abiyev, which covers the main news of the week related to Azerbaijan and beyond.

Azerbaijan – Armenia

On May 9, our country celebrated the 80th anniversary of Victory over Fascism. As this date sparks heated discussions in society every year, I would like to say a few words. Victory Day is not about nostalgia for the Soviet Union, nor is it an excuse for the crimes of Stalinism. It is a beacon pointing to a powerful moral compass. The peoples, by the will of fate, united in one state, were given the important mission, with the help of our allies, to sever the heads of the hydra of fascism and Nazism around the world, the vile ideology of racial superiority, and the foolish pride of mortal men who imagined themselves as all-powerful gods.

As is well known, President Ilham Aliyev did not travel to Moscow to participate in the celebratory parade. It seems that the reason for this was a series of actions by Russia that were poorly aligned with the spirit of allied cooperation, the most recent of which was the diplomatic protest involving the refusal to allow Azerbaijani MP Azer Badamov into Russia. In other words, there were serious reasons behind this decision.

Similarly, there were surely serious reasons that led Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to attend the parade, marking his first appearance in a long time. Apparently, the circumstances were quite pressing. On one hand, the re-election of Trump significantly weakened the overall Western support for Yerevan, forcing it to be more cautious with its so-called "big brother," whether former or still active. On the other hand, a pro-Russian opposition, led by the Karabakh clan, has become more active in Armenia, increasingly demanding early elections. Yes, the Karabakh clan is unpopular in Armenia, but other forces may also seize upon this situation, as it might serve their interests to replace the current prime minister. In this context, Pashinyan has no choice but to attempt to convince the Russian leadership that he is the compromise figure and, at the very least, will not support the Karabakh faction.

Overall, Pashinyan's actions can only be described as vacillation. All of this points to Armenia as a country with weak agency. Yet, to gain true agency, it only takes one step – to sign a peace treaty on fair terms with Baku.

Among the countries with which Azerbaijan has established strategic partnerships, another has been added – Vietnam. Last week, the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, To Lam, visited Baku for a two-day official visit. During the visit, the two countries signed a number of agreements and memoranda, the most important of which was the declaration on strategic partnership. It was signed by the heads of state – President Ilham Aliyev and General Secretary To Lam.

Vietnam is a country with a rapidly developing economy, a disciplined workforce, and an extensive coastline in the strategically crucial South China Sea. These factors make it a significant player in the global economy and transportation system. On the other hand, Azerbaijan is a key country on the land routes connecting Eastern and Central Asia to Europe. It is no coincidence that one of the central topics discussed between the leaders and delegations of the two countries was cooperation in trade, communications, and transportation.

Vietnam is a model of a country that knows how to defend its sovereignty. For several decades in the 20th century, the Vietnamese people fought against powerful adversaries such as France and the United States, defeating both superpowers. Having experienced the full brunt of colonialism, Vietnam advocates for non-interference on the international stage and is an active member of the Non-Aligned Movement. These factors undoubtedly also bring our countries closer together and provide a foundation for creating a strong strategic partnership.

The uniqueness of Vietnam lies in the fact that the country did not abandon the socialist path of development while conducting large-scale market reforms, attracting significant investments, and transforming itself into a nearly new Asian tiger.

By the way, speaking of investments, Baku and Hanoi also discussed opportunities for mutual investment flows, particularly in the hydrocarbon sector and in renewable energy.

It is important to note that the foundation of relations between Azerbaijan and Vietnam was laid during the Soviet period, with the active involvement of national leader Heydar Aliyev. Incidentally, the release of our program coincided with the 102nd anniversary of his birth. Today, events were held across the country in memory of the founder of modern Azerbaijan.

Russia – China

A little more about the parade in Moscow. Perhaps the most important guest of Vladimir Putin was Chinese President Xi Jinping. Everyone is asking the question: what made the Chinese leader stand by Putin in such a symbolic setting? After all, in a situation where China is trying to build reliable connections with Europe amid the trade war declared by Trump, both to Beijing and Brussels, this is not the best signal to the EU. However, it seems that the Chinese have everything carefully calculated. It is clear that the European Union does not have the will strong enough to risk its mutually beneficial relationship with Beijing over Xi's visit to Moscow. And for Xi Jinping, there is, evidently, a significant reason to demonstrate closeness to Moscow and disregard European sentiment. This reason likely lies in the desire to show Washington that it will not succeed in driving a wedge between Beijing and Moscow. And this is exactly what is being talked about a lot in light of the observed diplomatic rapprochement between the U.S. and Russia.

India – Pakistan

It seems that India and Pakistan could not avoid a major war, and the instigator of the conflict is evident. India's blatant refusal to jointly investigate the Kashmir terrorist attack and its strikes on targets within Pakistan's territory have essentially left Islamabad with no choice but to unleash the full force of its military on the aggressor. It is worth noting that the Pakistani Air Force destroyed five Indian fighter jets, including three French-made Rafales.

The Nazi-like Indian Prime Minister Modi did not stop there and ordered the bombardment of Pakistani airbases, including the Nur Khan base just ten kilometers from the Pakistani capital. Fortunately, the Pakistani Air Force was once again unharmed, and the attacks were repelled. All New Delhi gained from this was Islamabad's promise to deliver another fitting response. And that promise was fulfilled. As part of "Operation Lead Wall," the Pakistani army targeted numerous strategic objectives in India, including the destruction of two BrahMos missile storage facilities and four airbases.

This ongoing India-Pakistan conflict clearly reflects not only the tension between the two countries but also a global standoff involving countries like China, the U.S., and the U.K. China and the U.S., supporting Pakistan and India respectively, have so far refrained from making harsh statements, calling for de-escalation. What is happening behind the scenes remains a matter of speculation.

Middle East

Israel called up tens of thousands of reservists this past week for a decisive military operation in Gaza. Reports indicate that the operation plan is set to be activated after May 16, once U.S. President Donald Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia concludes.

This comes amid what seems like a lack of a common vision for resolving the broader Middle East conflict between Tel Aviv and Washington. U.S. negotiations with Israel's main strategic adversary, Iran, do not seem to promise the desired outcome for Israeli leadership. Moreover, Trump, to the complete bewilderment of Tel Aviv, announced that he had ordered the cessation of nearly two months of airstrikes on Houthi rebels in Yemen, stating that the Iranian-backed insurgents "no longer want to fight" and have promised to stop attacking ships in the Red Sea.

It turns out that Trump distanced himself from the shared goal with Netanyahu — the protection of Israel — putting the focus on safeguarding shipping routes. And this, note, comes at a time when the Houthis have shelled and continue to shell Ben-Gurion International Airport, effectively blocking Israel's air communication with the outside world. This all looks as if Washington is not only failing to defeat Iran, but also maintaining its last proxy stronghold in the form of the Yemeni Houthis, thereby allowing them to exert more pressure on the Jewish state. And this is not surprising, as we've already discussed. The United States has no intention of giving Israel unlimited chances to defeat all of its enemies — because that would mean losing a significant part of its influence over the Jewish state, and therefore over the entire Middle East region.

New Pope

A new pope has been elected during a papal conclave. The conclave, which lasted two days, finally released the white smoke above the Sistine Chapel. For the first time, an American cardinal, Robert Prevost, a native of Chicago and a Peruvian citizen, has been elected as the head of the Catholic Church. He chose the name Leo XIV.

It is reported that Prevost is ideologically continuing the course of the late Pope Francis toward democratising the Catholic Church.

Many commentators immediately began to see Washington's influence in this, although this is not so obvious, especially given Prevost's critical remarks about the views of the U.S. president, particularly his immigration policy. In other words, the situation can also be viewed from a different angle — that the Catholic Church, by electing an American as pope, may be trying to create a powerful lever of influence on Washington.

As they say, time will tell.