US military presence in Armenia: Risky gamble with no guaranteed shield Russian expert warns

Caliber.Az recently spoke with Russian military expert Alexander Khramchikhin to discuss the increasing U.S. military involvement in Armenia and its implications.

- Mr Khramchikhin, what do you believe is the motivation behind the presence of a U.S. military advisor in Armenia's Defense Ministry?

- This is clearly part of Armenia's ongoing shift towards closer ties with the United States.

- What role do you think the American advisor will play?

- It's hard to say for sure, but it seems likely that his role will be to facilitate communication. Transitioning to NATO standards is a complex and lengthy process — one that even some NATO members haven't fully completed.

- It's evident that the U.S. military presence in Armenia aims to weaken Yerevan's ties with Moscow. Is Washington capable of achieving this?

- The U.S. has already made significant progress in that direction.

- Then why does Armenia remain hesitant to exit the CSTO and EAEU?

- Armenia might still have some reservations. Additionally, it benefits economically from parallel imports to Russia.

- Do you think Yerevan can continue balancing its relationships with both the U.S. and Russia?

- It's hard to predict how long they can maintain this balancing act.

- Moscow has warned that Armenia could face a fate similar to Ukraine’s. What are your thoughts on this?

- What fate exactly?

- Apparently, the disintegration of Armenian statehood.

- There's no internal separatism in Armenia like in Crimea or Donbas. This kind of rhetoric is just empty talk.

- To put it another way, what do you think will happen to Armenia if it fully distances itself from Russia?

- Armenia would likely be divided between Türkiye and Azerbaijan.

- How could that happen?

- It's simple. The West won't be able to protect Armenia, even if it wants to.

- Do you think Armenia realizes this?

- That’s a question for the Armenians. For some, Western alignment has become almost a belief system.

- Do you think Moscow will let Armenia slip out of its sphere of influence so easily?

- What does it mean that Moscow will "let" Armenia go?

- Russia has political and economic leverage over Armenia.

- I’m not seeing any signs that Armenia is changing its course.

- A small U.S. military contingent has already arrived in Armenia, specifically in Zangezur. Do you foresee the establishment of full-fledged American military bases there?

- I doubt it. The region is too problematic for the U.S. to commit that heavily.

- Will Yerevan agree to amend its constitution and sign a peace treaty with Baku?

- It's difficult to predict how long they’ll continue this charade. Internal factors likely play a significant role, but they are hard for me to assess.

- Could the Russian military base in Gyumri be withdrawn?

- It's possible. Any agreement can be terminated.