Record high support for California secession, new poll finds

A recent poll reveals that 44 percent of Californian adults would support the state leaving the United States to become a fully independent nation, marking a record high in secession support, according to the Independent California Institute (ICI).

The poll, conducted by YouGov between June 11 and 23, surveyed 500 Californian adults for the ICI, an organization dedicated to educating the public about greater self-governance for California. The survey carries a margin of error of plus or minus 5.7 percent, Caliber.Az reports via Newsweek.

It found that 44 percent of respondents would vote to “declare California’s intention to peacefully and legally withdraw from the United States, through negotiation with the federal government,” while 54 percent opposed the idea.

California, the wealthiest and most populous state in the US, would rank as the world’s fourth largest economy if it were an independent country, surpassing Japan, based on the International Monetary Fund’s 2024 World Economic Outlook data released in April.

Speaking to Newsweek, ICI executive director Coyote Marin said, “this is a record high poll result for secession,” referencing 12 previous polls by Ipsos, SurveyUSA, YouGov, and Zogby, with the previous high standing at 42 percent in a June 2021 YouGov survey.

The survey also indicated a significant shift in trust toward state authorities. Half of Californians said they trust state officials in Sacramento more than the federal government in Washington D.C., compared to only 23 percent who preferred the federal government. This marks a notable decline in confidence toward the federal government since the last ICI survey in January, which recorded 34 percent favoring Sacramento and 18 percent favoring Washington.

Further findings showed 72 percent of Californians support state police arresting federal immigration officials who “act maliciously or knowingly exceed their authority under federal law.” Additionally, 80 percent expressed support for stronger border controls within California “more like a country,” including checks on illegal guns and other contraband moving from other states.

The poll also found that 74 percent believe there should be a pathway to state citizenship for long-term residents without American citizenship, and 71 percent think California would benefit from negotiating “special autonomous status” within the United States.

On these results, ICI executive director Coyote Marin commented, “This is a record high poll result for secession. At the same time, it indicates that passing the Calexit [California exit] initiative or something similar would be a steep uphill climb, especially without special autonomous status as an option.”

ICI vice chair Timothy Vollmer added, “Californians are ready to govern themselves and are focused on pragmatic solutions. We are ready.”

By Sabina Mammadli