Will US quench Armenia's expectations of military supplies? Yerevan changes its overlord

US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Yerevan and her loud statements about her readiness to help Armenia has caused heated discussions in Armenian media and social networks on the possibility of US arms sales to Armenia. The Armenian National Committee (ANCA) reported on Facebook that for the first time since the restoration of Armenia's independence, US politicians are considering selling arms to Armenia under pressure from Congress.

It is well known that Armenian interests are purposefully promoted in the US due to the financial backing for parliamentarians from the Armenian lobby. Now Congress has raised the issue of arms supplies to Armenia allegedly for defensive purposes and as a counterweight to Azerbaijani "aggression".

This is exactly the congressional interpretation made by Jackie Speier (Kanchelyan), co-chair of the Armenian Issues Caucus, the only woman with Armenian roots in the US parliament. Incidentally, she was part of the US delegation during Pelosi's visit to Armenia.

Speier has repeatedly spoken about her ancestry in Congress, raising the issue of recognition of the so-called "genocide". Now she has spearheaded a resolution to hold Baku accountable and advocate for sanctions against it. Last Monday, she submitted a draft resolution to the lower chamber of the US legislature to hold Azerbaijan responsible "for war crimes against Armenians," which was supported by well-known lobbyists for Armenian politics - congressmen Frank Pallone, Adam Schiff, and Anna Eshoo.

Curiously, Speier has a mixed record on the issue of US arms deliveries to Armenia. According to her, the US can't supply arms to Armenia yet, because they might fall into Russia's hands.

"We are ready to provide military support to Armenia if necessary, but we have no troops there. We have to, so to speak, build defences in Armenia. So our hands are kind of tied," said the congresswoman, commenting on the issue of US military supplies to Armenia during an online meeting initiated by the Armenian Assembly of America. With her statement, Speier actually called on Armenia to withdraw from the influence of Russia and the CSTO, and interestingly, the current rhetoric of the Armenian authorities largely reflects this position.

For example, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, speaking from the rostrum of the parliament, stated that Armenia had the financial resources to purchase the necessary defensive arms and ammunition, but its purchase from some countries, ready to supply arms to Armenia, poses new security threats to the country. It is not difficult to guess that Pashinyan's controversial messages that the purchase of arms from third countries poses new threats to Armenia's security are directly addressed to its closest ally, Russia, which also sells arms to Azerbaijan.

Of course, Russia's disregard of Armenia's opinion on this issue is quite painful for Yerevan, and it has expressed its dissatisfaction with this policy in every possible way. However, Moscow has not even thought of refusing to sell arms to Azerbaijan.

As for possible US military supplies to Armenia, this is a highly questionable project due to a number of factors. The first obstacle is Turkey, a NATO member, and US ally. The likelihood that Washington would make a deal with Armenia that would circumvent Ankara's interests is more than low. The fact that Türkiye's political weight and international authority in world politics is high is also acknowledged by the Americans themselves. Therefore, the US must have a very good reason for supplying weapons to Armenia.

Actually, the US needs full control in the South Caucasus, bypassing the interests of Russia, Türkiye, and Iran, which are directly related to the region. Armenia's possible withdrawal from Russia's influence and from the CSTO military bloc would certainly strengthen the US presence in the Caucasus, but the issue is that, first, Russia will not let Armenia out of its orbit of influence, and both the US and Armenia understand this, no matter how much they argue. On the other hand, the US congressmen's arguments that Armenia can receive US military aid on condition that it withdraws from the CSTO look like political blackmail. By pushing Yerevan towards a final break with Moscow, the Americans are again acting in their own interest and not that of Armenia. Meanwhile, Yerevan seems unable to give a sober assessment to the US military adventure, where wishful thinking is being replaced with reality. In a recent interview with Foxnews.com, Armen Grigoryan, secretary of the Armenian Security Council, was lavishing praise on US foreign policy, calling for aid to Armenia, while former president Robert Kocharyan was categorically skeptical about arms transfers from the US and France.

At a press conference in Yerevan, he said he did not see the premise of the US and France assuming responsibility for Armenia's security. Kocharyan drew attention to two, but very significant, nuances. He noted that the prospect of arms deliveries to Armenia is diminished by the fact that the US influence on Türkiye has significantly diminished and that Russia's influence on Azerbaijan has decreased.

"Ilham Aliyev is already openly saying - don't hope for any calls. Who is he hinting at?" wondered Kocharyan, adding that the answer is obvious.

And he further ruled out military aid to Armenia from France as well.

"Should we say "no" to Russia and CSTO, and go to France for help? There will be no such assistance," the former president believes, adding that setting the Armenian society against Russia will only play against Armenia itself.

There is nothing new in Kocharyan's opposition to breaking off relations with Russia. As is well known, he was a Kremlin protégé and thanks to Russian support was able to reach the highest echelons of power in Armenia in his time. However, taking into account the accents he has placed on Türkiye and Azerbaijan, it is obvious that Kocharyan's assessment of the situation is the closest to reality.

It is also pertinent to recall President Ilham Aliyev's statement that Azerbaijan will destroy any threat to its security emanating from Armenia. In January of this year, in an interview with local TV channels, the president once again stated clearly and unambiguously that Baku is keeping a close eye on military buildup attempts in Armenia and will destroy any threat to its security emanating from that country.

"We are keeping a very close eye on all attempts at military buildup in Armenia both by our own forces and with the help of their partners. Therefore, I have frankly and openly said that if we see even the slightest threat to our security, that threat will be destroyed immediately. No matter where it is, no matter how deep it is in Armenia, we will just eliminate it. Everyone must know and understand that, and in the first place, the Armenian leadership," Aliyev said.

The tough message of the Azerbaijani leadership is primarily addressed to Armenia, but it must also be learned by the countries, which are trying to foment conflict through their provocative actions and steps. Unfortunately, among these, and as it turned out, far from being friendly to us, was India, which once again blatantly ignored the interests of Azerbaijan.

According to India's Economics Times (ET) portal, India has signed a major contract for the export of missiles, rockets, and ammunition to Armenia. The contract was reportedly signed between the two governments earlier this month. The value of the deal has not been disclosed, but it is expected that over $240 million worth of arms will be delivered to Armenia in the coming months. It is also known that the order includes the first-ever export of local Pinaka multiple rocket launchers, which are already in service with the Indian army. The powerful weapons were developed by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and are produced by private companies in India. As part of a comprehensive deal, India will also supply anti-tank missiles and a range of ammunition to Armenia.

Incidentally, this is not India's first time exporting weapon systems to Armenia. Back in 2020, it supplied four Swathi radars worth $40 million to Armenia, designed in accordance with the Indian army's specifications. They are used to track approaching artillery and mortar shells and missiles, as well as to pinpoint the location of enemy launchers and positions.

These same radars have also been used by India on its borders with Pakistan and China.

As we can see, India made its choice to the detriment of its relations with Azerbaijan, which once again confirms its openly biased position. However, it would be naive to expect adequate steps from the country, which back in 2008 voted against a UN resolution "On the situation in the occupied territories of Azerbaijan", and has blocked our country's participation this year in the BRICS summit (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), and also derailed a declaration of solidarity, which was being prepared in the Non-Aligned Movement in connection with the attack on the Embassy of Azerbaijan in London. As we can see, there are enough reasons to draw proper conclusions about India's policy. And Baku has surely already drawn them...