Drills, rearmament, provocations: Escalation near Belarus borders

“It’s very creepy, aggressively hostile attitudes toward Belarus from our neighbours…”: Open military preparations against Belarus are being carried out from Poland and the Baltics. According to the BELTA agency, this is how the President of the Republic of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, described the situation. What has been happening near the Belarusian borders recently?

Why are Polish pilots “getting off course”?

“It is alarming that our neighbours — Poland and the Baltic countries — have very creepy, aggressively hostile attitudes toward Belarus. Pressure is being exerted in all directions. Our special services feel this pressure the most,” said the President of Belarus.

And this is confirmed by numerous facts. The Polish army is rapidly increasing in size and rearming. Over the past few years, Warsaw has doubled the number of its mechanised divisions from three to six. Meanwhile, the Belarusian Armed Forces have not created a single new unit in recent years, nor have any existing Belarusian formations been additionally deployed to the borders with Poland. Only recently was the intention announced to form a new Special Operations Forces brigade, which will be stationed in the southeast of the republic, in Gomel.

At the same time, four out of the six Polish mechanized divisions are deployed in the direction of Belarus. The Polish Land Forces have been reinforced with the latest Abrams and K2 tanks, Krab and K9 self-propelled howitzers, Borsuk armored personnel carriers, and Żmija reconnaissance vehicles. The Air Force has received F-35 fighters, Apache, and Black Hawk helicopters.

The Polish army is also actively developing a promising area — unmanned aerial vehicles, which have significantly changed the nature of modern warfare. In January 2025, an Inspection of Unmanned Weapon Systems was established within the General Command of the Polish Armed Forces.

Most Polish divisions have three mechanised brigades each, while the entire Belarusian Land Forces have only four mechanised brigades in total. Poland’s military budget amounts to $40 billion, whereas Belarus’s defence budget is $821 million — almost five times less. So who is really the threat?

Belarus has pursued a restrained, peaceful policy in recent years, trying to respond calmly to external provocations. Such incidents have occurred more than once. For example, on September 1, 2023, a Polish Air Force Mi-24 military helicopter crossed the Belarusian state border at an extremely low altitude in the Grodno region and flew 1.2 km deep into Belarusian territory. Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin called this the result of “poor training of Polish pilots.”

The military conflict in Ukraine has caused deep regret among the Belarusian people and the country’s president. Alexander Lukashenko has repeatedly offered assistance and proposed Minsk as a venue for achieving peace in Ukraine.

"Iron wolves" at the Belarusian borders

NATO has been conducting military exercises near Belarusian borders almost nonstop. From January to May 2024, the alliance held its largest exercises since the Cold War — Steadfast Defender. About 100,000 military personnel from 32 countries participated, along with 50 warships, over 100 aircraft, and several thousand units of armored vehicles and heavy weaponry.

In September–October 2024, NATO forces conducted the Iron Wolf-2024 exercises on Lithuanian territory. According to the Lithuanian Armed Forces press service, 3,200 military personnel from the United States, Germany, the Czech Republic, Norway, and the Benelux countries participated, along with 700 units of military equipment.

Reservist exercises are regularly held in Poland. The country’s army is predominantly professional, but military service has effectively become "voluntarily mandatory." The “Homeland Defense Act” (2022) made conscription for military training compulsory, and evading these duties results in fines or criminal penalties.

In 2024, up to 200,000 reservists were planned to be called up for training. Men up to 55 years old in the rank and file, and up to 63 years old for non-commissioned officers and officers, are subject to conscription. Women are also called up — including IT specialists, doctors, veterinarians, and drivers with C and D licenses. Why the Polish army needs so many veterinarians is an open question. It is possibly related to the active use of service dogs, but this is not certain.

Militarization of society is proceeding at an unprecedented pace. Mandatory training now extends to those not in the reserves. A unit called the “Academic Legion” has been created for students, where they undergo military training.

In 2025, the Polish Ministry of Defence plans to call up an additional 200,000 reservists. Another 30,000 people will be included in the “active reserve,” undergoing regular training during their free time and remaining ready for immediate mobilization. Service can last up to three months, including training on the latest military equipment.

According to the Ministry of Defense of Belarus, up to four permanent NATO and Polish Army operations are active on the Belarusian front, including the enhanced NATO Forward Presence. In 2025, Polish troops are part of NATO battle groups in Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. The third phase of the “Safe Podlasie” operation is also underway, during which in July 2025 the 16th Mechanized Division replaced the 12th Mechanized and the 11th Armored Cavalry Divisions.

Poland has purchased the latest F-35 fighters, but Polish pilots are still undergoing training in the United States. In 2025, Norwegian F-35s began patrolling Polish airspace, and Norwegian air defense and missile defense systems were deployed at Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport.

In 2025, the Masurian Artillery Regiment was reorganized into a brigade and received the latest Krab self-propelled howitzers and HIMARS multiple rocket launcher systems.

Restless West

The current escalation was triggered by the “Zapad-2025” exercises, scheduled for September in Belarus alongside the Russian Armed Forces. These are routine drills held every two years and are defensive in nature. However, the West has stirred up hysteria over the supposed “threat” posed by these maneuvers.

On May 28, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin announced that the exercises would be relocated further inland, away from the western borders, and their scale reduced by half — to 13,000 military personnel.

Minsk anticipates provocations that could be orchestrated from abroad involving the Belarusian opposition. In June, Poland announced the NATO exercise Iron Defender near the Belarusian border, involving up to 40,000 troops — by comparison, Zapad-2025 involves 13,000.

Belarus’s only military-political ally in Europe remains Russia, while other CSTO members are far away, and Armenia is effectively withdrawing from the organization.

In July 2025, Belarusian and Chinese forces conducted the “Eagle Strike” exercises near Brest, focused on counterterrorism. Despite their limited scale, the French newspaper Le Monde called them a “political challenge to the West.”

In reality, Belarus poses no challenges to anyone and consistently advocates for peace, stability, and good-neighborly relations.

P.S. On August 8, in an interview with The Times, Alexander Lukashenko again called for resolving the conflict between Ukraine and Russia peacefully, urging both sides to make mutual concessions.