Zangezur Corridor is not a joker for Armenia in negotiations Yerevan is in captivity of illusions

A recent interview with Russian Ambassador to Azerbaijan Mikhail Yevdokimov caused anger in Armenia. It is understandable since the Russian diplomat accused Yerevan of delaying the unblocking of regional transport communications.

How long will Russia tolerate Yerevan's stubbornness? Why is Armenia shirking its obligations? Russian political scientists answered these and other questions for Caliber.Az.

Director of the New Society Institute Vasily Koltashov noted that Russia already has a route to Türkiye and this is a very convenient waterway, and for trade with Iran, it uses transit through Azerbaijan or the Caspian Sea.

“The corridor through Armenia to Türkiye for Russia, in my opinion, is not very interesting from an economic point of view, although it, of course, can expand the communication capabilities of the South Caucasus. I would say that the matter is somewhat different - Russia has not an economic, but a regional-political interest in this project,” the pundit said.

According to him, nevertheless, if the corridor appears, Russia will try to become its guarantor and even make investments in infrastructure and modernization.

“As for the behaviour of Armenia. Pashinyan is weak and afraid of Aliyev because he understands that France and the United States will not protect him. Therefore, under pressure from Baku and Moscow, he can completely cave in along the corridor,” the political scientist is sure.

In the opinion of Stanislav Tkachenko, a doctor of economic sciences, professor at St. Petersburg State University, the reasons for the Armenian leadership's persistence in delaying the opening of the Zangezur corridor are entirely diplomatic and have no economic content. However, Yerevan is in the captivity of illusions.

"Yerevan mistakenly considers this project as its negotiating resource, which can give Armenia some benefits in other areas of relations with neighbouring states interested in the project. And among them are not only Azerbaijan and Türkiye, with which there are no diplomatic relations yet, but also friendly Iran and allied Russia," Tkachenko noted.

The main concern of Armenian diplomacy today is to minimize the domestic political consequences of a military defeat in Karabakh in September 2023. While this topic is still actively discussed in Armenian society, Yerevan needs to constantly and increasingly explain the reasons for its military failures, the interlocutor says.

"The explanation that is now most popular in Armenia's ruling circles is a mistaken bet on an alliance with Russia and an equally mistaken rejection of the European choice, as well as the multi-vector policy, understood as the development of relations with the United States, France and India.

However, from Russia's point of view, Pashinyan's decision to withdraw from Karabakh was made as a result of the military defeats of 2020 and 2023. Moscow is sympathetic to the multi-vector foreign policy of its allies, such as Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, but reacts sharply when it is unfairly accused of actions it did not commit.

As for the presence of Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) border troops in the Zangezur corridor, the decision to do so was made in November 2020 with the consent of Armenia, with its prime minister's signature under the Trilateral Statement. Moscow does not seem to hope that Yerevan will give up its policy of dragging out negotiations on the establishment of the corridor any time soon.

The recent statement of Russian Ambassador to Azerbaijan Yevdokimov was a signal that the refusal to implement the mutually beneficial project of transport corridor between the Mediterranean and Türkiye on the one hand, and the Caspian Sea and Russia on the other, is condemned in Moscow, and the responsibility for their negative political and economic consequences will lie only on Armenia," said Tkachenko.