From Africa to the South Caucasus: Macron's fiasco Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

"We have supported the Armenian authorities in their efforts to reach a peace agreement with Azerbaijan," said French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean-Noël Barrot last week at a press conference in Yerevan, responding to a question about what steps France is taking to “prevent escalation and possible aggression from Azerbaijan.” “We welcomed the agreement on the text of the document and call on Azerbaijan to sign it,” he added.

According to several analysts, both Barrot’s visit and his statements appear to be a belated and failed attempt to keep Armenia under France’s sphere of influence—when in reality, the situation has changed dramatically. What kind of strategic partnership with Yerevan is Paris talking about, when Armenia has already made its course clear: it will continue to follow Russia’s political line? Political analysts from Belarus and Kazakhstan shared their views on this matter with Caliber.Az.

According to Belarusian political analyst and chief expert at the Centre for Analytical Forecasting, Aleksey Chernov, the core issue lies in the fact that Macron and his policies are currently failing on almost every front.

"We are witnessing the collapse of what was once called France’s 'colonial policy.' One by one, the Fifth Republic is losing its positions, and this is reflected in Macron’s declining approval among French voters. His attempts to gain a foothold in the South Caucasus have ended in fiasco. Macron’s manoeuvre to sell French weapons to Armenia is also falling flat, as even the president’s political allies do not support it. The reality is that France doesn’t have enough weapons in its stockpiles to sell them in bulk to Armenia. Simply put, Paris is far from well-stocked, and the offensive and defensive systems Yerevan seeks are just as essential for France itself.

Europe, under its new defence doctrine, is increasing its military budget, which means there are no surplus arms left for Armenia. This clearly demonstrates that all of Macron’s tempting 'carrots' turned out to be a bluff—Paris cannot supply Armenia with arms, nor can it help it obtain even EU candidate status. So why would Pashinyan need France and Macron, who are unable to satisfy Armenian ambitions?

In my view, the final point of agreement between Moscow and the Armenian Prime Minister was reached when the Kremlin ultimately promised to provide arms to Yerevan—even if only a limited amount. Russia’s pledges outweighed Macron’s. Furthermore, one must not overlook the behind-the-scenes pressure the Kremlin continuously exerted on Yerevan. The threat of losing the entire trade turnover within the EAEU [Eurasian Economic Union] is quite a significant argument. Surely, a direct reminder of all these factors was conveyed to Yerevan behind closed doors," Chernov stated.

According to Kazakh political analyst and economist Ruslan Salikhov, Barrot’s visit to Armenia vividly illustrates France’s helplessness.

"One only needs to look at the talking points he presented at the press conference. The French minister went into a kind of monologue about Russia, as if trying to justify France’s position to Moscow. ‘This is why we support Ukraine and its military efforts to deter aggression. Europe and France have no territorial claims against Russia,’ he said.

The point is that, against the backdrop of Trump’s powerful charisma and political momentum, Macron has been sidelined. On the one hand, France is trying to maintain its influence over Yerevan, while on the other, it is clearly floundering in the face of Trump’s strategic push to reintegrate Russia into the global political landscape.

In other words, Macron is wary of attacking Moscow unilaterally, preferring to make mild jabs at the Kremlin. But when push comes to shove, it turns out Paris has no real grievances with Russia. Moreover, Macron genuinely fears how Trump might react if he were to take a more aggressive stance against Moscow.

The truth is, neither the French president nor his ministers have any idea what to do next or how to position themselves amid Trump’s highly assertive policy—one that makes Macron look like a dull and uninspired populist by comparison. And frankly, Paris has run out of aces to play," Salikhov said.