TRIPP: A formula for geopolitical truce and pragmatism Analysts discuss the Trump Route

The “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) project is taking on increasingly concrete form.

At the recent conference “Crossroads of Peace: Advancing Regional Connectivity and Cooperation” in Yerevan, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan made several statements on the topic.

In particular, he noted that TRIPP will consist of several railway routes, power lines, and pipelines — including gas and oil pipelines — as well as cables and, of course, other transport communications.

“The TRIPP project emerged as a result of the Washington Peace Summit on August 8. The first action we will undertake — which we are currently working on — should also demonstrate how the project will be implemented. In other words, this involves creating a written regulatory framework. Essentially, the first step in establishing this framework is the Washington Declaration, which outlines the general parameters. The next step will be the creation by Armenia and the U.S. of a joint legal entity — which will be the company ‘TRIPP’; the final name is still being determined. This will be a joint company established by Armenia and the U.S., and it will be governed by a Board of Directors, with representation from both Armenia and the U.S.,” stated the Armenian leader.

Meanwhile, according to Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, speaking at a meeting with Georgian Foreign Minister Maka Botchorishvili, the peace established between Armenia and Azerbaijan with the assistance of the U.S. President will contribute to the development of the region.

“Unlocking infrastructure between Armenia and Azerbaijan — the ‘Trump Route’ within the framework of an international development programme based on the principles of territorial integrity and other approaches — gives us many opportunities to move forward and also ensures stability,” he said.

Thus, one can say that something truly remarkable is unfolding before our eyes: TRIPP, living up to its name, is bringing together a wide range of centres of power — both regional actors like Azerbaijan and Armenia, and major international players. But what do Azerbaijani and foreign political analysts think about the TRIPP formula?

Azerbaijani political analyst Murad Sadaddinov is confident that the “Trump Route” truly creates a unique balance of power and interests in the region.

“In his speech at the C5+1 meeting, the President of the United States himself touched on TRIPP, stating that this is a route passing through an economically important region of the world, which will increase trade activity on the other side of the Caspian Sea and help the nations of Central Asia, and this is very important for the U.S. This is yet another concrete demonstration of the attention of a key global political actor, and no one can contest the U.S. position on the international stage, especially today, after Donald Trump came to power, regarding the South Caucasus region.

As for other players, of course, Russia and Iran are involved, both of which, to put it mildly, are cautious about America’s participation in this project, but are forced to take the U.S. opinion into account.

It is clear that Tehran has its own position — it was interested in ensuring that this corridor would not function independently, but rather that the route would pass through Iran. The Russian side also made efforts to control this corridor, based on the trilateral statement of November 10, 2020. It should be noted that Russia’s influence in Armenia has not disappeared: the Armenian railway network is managed by Russia, and Russian border guards monitor parts of the country’s borders. But today, Moscow is forced to accept the global role of the U.S. in the South Caucasus and has even expressed a desire to participate in TRIPP.

Therefore, I would say that the ‘Trump Route’ does not merely reconcile parties — no, it creates a unique balance of power and interests in the region, shaping the overall picture of the South Caucasus,” said Sadaddinov.

Meanwhile, German international affairs expert Yevgeny Kudryats noted that, as is well known, TRIPP brings together very different players: Azerbaijan and Armenia, which have only now begun a joint dialogue; Russia and Iran — allies but competitors when it comes to transport routes; and NATO member countries — the U.S. and Türkiye — which have differing regional interests. What do these states have in common? According to the political analyst, sometimes almost nothing, except for one thing — an interest in a stable and controlled logical channel of communication.

“TRIPP creates economic pressure on the factor of political isolation; it forces even those who were at war yesterday or are under sanctions to sit at the negotiating table. In this way, infrastructure becomes a space for enforced dialogue,” he emphasised.

According to him, no one wants to yield, but everyone considers the losses from isolation unacceptable. Thus, the “Trump Route” not only unites these countries ideologically, but also draws them into a shared zone of interests. This resembles a geopolitical truce, based not on trust, but on necessity.

“It is not an alliance, but a platform for checks and balances. And this is what makes this route unique. Against the backdrop of chaos, confrontation, sanctions, and isolation, TRIPP offers a pragmatic format of cooperation even among those who do not officially communicate with each other. That is why its significance goes far beyond logistics. It is a mirror of the new multipolarity, where political differences do not eliminate economic interdependence. I want to emphasise that TRIPP is not just a transport corridor — it is a geopolitical reality. Not long ago, Russia was the main arbiter in the region: from Karabakh to the Armenian-Georgian border. Today, however, we observe a changing climate: Azerbaijan is strengthening ties with the West, Armenia is making steps toward the EU and the U.S., Iran and Türkiye are becoming active players, and the previously cautious West is increasingly speaking the language of investments, guarantees, and logistics,” the political analyst stated.

The expert also highlighted the role of the U.S. in the project. In his view, in the long term, Washington expects that TRIPP’s success will strengthen pro-Western trends in the region and ultimately remove the South Caucasus from Russia’s sphere of influence. The U.S.’s role in the project is becoming increasingly visible — not as a direct participant, but as a strategic partner and guarantor.

“First, the U.S. actively supports the idea of diversifying logistics corridors, especially those that bypass Russia and Iran. TRIPP fits perfectly into this concept. It is an alternative to the Russian and Iranian supply routes for energy resources and goods between Asia and Europe.

Second, Washington views the South Caucasus as part of the critically important infrastructure of Greater Eurasia. Here, U.S. interests concern not only trade, but also Europe’s energy security and the containment of Russia and China.

Third, the U.S. is strengthening its diplomatic and technical presence in the region — supporting Armenia and maintaining active contacts with Azerbaijan. Washington is betting on the development of sustainable regional ties without reliance on Moscow. In this way, the United States plays the role of architect of the conditions under which TRIPP develops its unique integration scheme, following a trajectory that is logically advantageous for Washington. However, the uniqueness lies in the fact that the interests of Baku, Yerevan, and Ankara largely align with these U.S. plans and even benefit from them,” Kudryats concluded.