Bat virus just one mutation away from infecting humans, study warns

A group of bat coronaviruses may be only a single mutation away from gaining the ability to infect humans, raising concerns about the potential for a future pandemic, scientists have warned in a new study published in Nature Communications.

Researchers from Washington State University, the California Institute of Technology, and the University of North Carolina focused on a group of viruses called HKU5 merbecoviruses. These are closely related to the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV), which has a high fatality rate of nearly 34 per cent, Caliber.Az reports via foreign media.

While MERS-CoV spreads to humans through dromedary camels, HKU5 viruses originate in bats—specifically, the Japanese house bat (Pipistrellus abramus)—and have been detected in various parts of Asia, Africa, Europe, and the Middle East.

The study examined how these viruses might evolve to infect humans. Using lab-engineered virus-like particles, researchers tested how the spike proteins of HKU5 viruses bind to receptors on host cells. Spike proteins are the part of the virus that allow it to attach and enter cells.

The findings were alarming. HKU5 viruses were shown to use the ACE2 receptor in bats—the same receptor SARS-CoV-2, the virus behind COVID-19, uses in humans. While these viruses are not yet efficient at binding to the human version of the ACE2 receptor, the study found that a few small mutations could change that.

One HKU5 virus has already crossed into another animal species, infecting minks in China—an indication that these viruses are adapting and gaining the ability to jump between hosts.

To speed up their research, the scientists used an advanced AI tool called AlphaFold3 to model how the virus’s spike protein interacts with ACE2 receptors. This tool, used by PhD researcher Victoria Jefferson from Washington State University, can predict these interactions in minutes instead of the months it would take using traditional methods.

The AI models confirmed lab findings and showed how just a few structural changes in the virus could potentially allow it to infect humans.

Dr. Michael Letko, who led the research team at Washington State University, stressed that there is no evidence yet that HKU5 viruses have infected humans. However, he emphasized the importance of close monitoring.

“These viruses are similar to MERS,” he said. “There’s no proof they’ve infected people yet, but they could, and that’s why we need to keep an eye on them.”

By Sabina Mammadli