Ukraine intelligence warns Russia preparing false-flag incident with civilian risk

Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service has warned that Russian authorities may be preparing a false-flag provocation with potential civilian casualties, which it says is intended to disrupt ongoing peace efforts mediated by the United States.

In a public statement, the agency said it believes the Kremlin is conducting a multi-layered information operation following Kremlin's claims of an alleged attack on President Vladimir Putin’s residence, Caliber.Az reports. 

"This operation is complex in nature. After the so-called 'attack on putin’s residence', we are seeing the kremlin spreading new falsified information to prepare russian and foreign audiences for further escalation," the agency said. 

The SZRU claimed there is a “high probability” that the operation could shift from information manipulation to an armed provocation attributed to Russian security services, potentially resulting in civilian casualties. The agency said such an incident could occur shortly before or during the celebration of Christmas under the Julian calendar.

Ukrainian intelligence further alleged that a potential provocation could target a religious site or another location of high symbolic importance, either within Russia or in Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine. The statement asserted that debris from Western-manufactured strike drones could be used at the scene to falsely implicate Ukraine, with the materials allegedly transported from active combat zones.

The agency argued that conducting attacks with civilian casualties while attributing them to a foreign actor is consistent with past practices of Russian security services. It also claimed that similar tactics have previously been used inside Russia and are now being extended beyond its borders, citing public remarks by senior Russian officials as indirect indications.

The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine urged international media outlets to independently verify information released by Russian authorities and to exercise caution in reporting unverified claims.

Russia has not commented on the Ukrainian intelligence allegations at the time of publication.

By Sabina Mammadli