Russia proposes a gas union and friendship to Kazakhstan
Gasification of Central Asia?
ANALYTICS 02 December 2022 - 12:45
Fuad Shahbazov |
On November 28, Kazakhstani President Kassym Jomart Tokayev paid an official visit to Moscow right after his re-election to the post. While President Tokayev’s visit signalled that Russia is still an important partner for Astana despite the recent tensions, it was a good opportunity for Moscow to mend ties. During the visit, Tokayev and Putin discussed a wide range of issues, including a new energy deal. According to the Russian media, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin discussed a plan for a possible union at a meeting in Moscow.
The need for a new gas deal is vitally important for Russia as it has faced increasingly tough Western sanctions since the invasion of Ukraine and has been seeking to reorient its oil and gas exports eastwards to China and other Asian markets. In this vein, energy-rich Kazakhstan is a key country that may boost Russia's export to Asia and help to facilitate the partnership with other regional states. Russia's state-run media claims that energy supply routes in the region are "extremely relevant" and that a gas union "will meet the interests of all three countries." Russia is already considering bringing Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan into this new gas union.
There is no doubt that by proposing a new gas union, Russia is driven by economic and geopolitical interests. Moscow apprehends the fact that its influence in Central Asia is declining steadily, whereas China actively capitalizes on that. Therefore, linking itself with two main regional states, Astana and Tashkent, would enable Moscow to keep its pulse. However, given the frequent statements of the Russian ultra-nationalist politicians towards other post-Soviet republics in light of the Ukraine war, the prospects of such a geopolitical union are suspicious.
Another reason that Russia seeks to link Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan is that those countries have a common gas transport link built during the Soviet times, so technically it is easier for Russia to ensure gas flow through this link and even reproduce it. Indeed, the final destination of the Russian gas flow will be China due to its enormous gas demand. Moreover, additional gas flow may also be crucial for Astana and Tashkent since domestic consumption in these countries has recently risen sharply.
According to the Ministry of Energy, gas consumption in Kazakhstan has increased almost by 5 billion cubic meters from 2017 to 2021. By the results of 2021, the level of gas supply in the country was 57.67 per cent, and 11 million people now have access to gas. Nearly 42 per cent of non-gasified Kazakhstanis, about 8-9 million people, have no access to gas and burn coal instead.
As for Uzbekistan, the country planned to increase gas production by the end of this year by 4 per cent to 56.3 bcm this year against 53.8 bcm in 2021. Both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan import a vast proportion of their natural gas to China. For example, Uzbekistan exported natural gas worth US$916.7 million to China from January through October 2022, according to Uzbek national media.
However, the growing export of natural gas to China caused an energy deficit in Kazakhstan, so Tokayev's willingness to discuss the gas union with Russia should not come as a surprise. Kazakhstan needs to gasify its northern territories, which traditionally are supplied via Russian gas, as there is no necessary infrastructure to re-route gas flow from other territories. Considering that Russia started exploring a new gas field in Siberia, the gasification of the northern part of Kazakhstan would be easier. Moreover, establishing a new trilateral gas union would require signing an additional document to set up a joint venture.
As for now, Kazakhstan – Russia gas union and energy partnership appear more real since Uzbekistan would endeavour to postpone the process. Although the diplomatic standoff between Astana and Moscow mounted significantly this year, Kazakhstan still needs Russia as a partner and counterbalance factor against the rising influence of China and security guarantor against the spread of radical Islamism threat stemming from Afghanistan.
However, with its stagnating economy and limited technical resources, Russia is still far from being the main economic partner of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan as both states seek closer ties with economically sufficient Europe. With the shifting geopolitical balance in the Caucasus and Central Asia, Russia desperately attempts to restore its diminishing influence in a vitally important region, albeit unsuccessfully.
Caliber.Az
1
|
Poland suspends military drills following fifth soldier's death
27 March 2024 - 13:41
|
2
|
Syrian scenario for Armenia Russian, Israeli experts’ views for Caliber.Az
26 March 2024 - 17:27
|
3
|
Serbian president warns of difficult days ahead
27 March 2024 - 11:04
|
4
|
Global reactions to UNSC Gaza ceasefire resolution Diverse views, urgent action
27 March 2024 - 18:00
|
5
|
Vucic warns of Serbia's Council of Europe departure amid Kosovo debate Double standards alert
28 March 2024 - 12:13
|
Israeli strikes on Syria kill 38, including 5 Hezbollah members
PHOTO29 March 2024 - 17:54
Baku, Riyadh explore cooperation on climate change initiatives
29 March 2024 - 17:45
US Navy preps hypersonic weapon test this spring
29 March 2024 - 17:36
Azerbaijani deputy prime minister attends CIS Economic Council meeting in Moscow
29 March 2024 - 17:28
Russia, Ukraine exchange bodies of deceased servicemen
29 March 2024 - 17:20
Russian envoy: US sees Armenia as geopolitical tool against Russia, Iran
UPDATED29 March 2024 - 17:11
Georgian politician advocates for “foreign agents” law to safeguard sovereignty
29 March 2024 - 17:00
France's right-wing leader signals potential exit from NATO military command
29 March 2024 - 16:52
Over 32,600 Palestinians killed, 75,000 injured in Gaza
29 March 2024 - 16:43
Sweden considers supplying Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine amid ongoing discussions
29 March 2024 - 16:36
Suspects linked to Moscow terrorist attack detained in Tajikistan
29 March 2024 - 16:28
Orban advocates for buffer zone in Ukraine, dismisses direct Russian threat
29 March 2024 - 16:20
US allocates over $113 billion in aid to Ukraine amid Ongoing conflict
29 March 2024 - 16:11
Türkiye’s intelligence chief to meet US House delegation to discuss security concerns
29 March 2024 - 16:02
Blazing bits transmitted 4.5 million times faster than broadband
29 March 2024 - 15:54
Armenian defence minister convenes meeting with generals
29 March 2024 - 15:46
Pundit: Armenia faces crucial decision amid EU-US pressure
29 March 2024 - 15:37
AvtoVAZ launches Lada car production in Azerbaijan
Expanding presence and promising prospects29 March 2024 - 15:28
Russia doubled imports of an explosives ingredient
With Western help29 March 2024 - 15:16
Azerbaijan passes stricter measures against religious extremism
New rules for special operations approved29 March 2024 - 15:04
Hamas leader seeks more Iranian support during Tehran's visit
Amidst Gaza conflict29 March 2024 - 14:59
Ministry neutralizes ammunition cache discovered outside Azerbaijani capital
PHOTO/VIDEO29 March 2024 - 14:52
COP29 to help adapt Azerbaijan's agricultural policy to international experience - minister
29 March 2024 - 14:40
BAE displays new armored multipurpose vehicle
PHOTO29 March 2024 - 14:27
Azerbaijan disappointed by biased US stance on peace process
Presidential aide says29 March 2024 - 14:21
Ambassador Ravkov: Azerbaijan and Belarus are strategic partners
29 March 2024 - 14:14
Azerbaijani police seize batch of Armenian weapons in Khankendi
29 March 2024 - 14:10
Azerbaijan attracts $6.7 billion in direct foreign investment in 2023
29 March 2024 - 13:55
Armenian Prosecutor's Office targets family of Dashnak representative
29 March 2024 - 13:43
Azerbaijan asserts right to self-defense amidst calls for regional peace
Hajiyev grants interview to Chinese TV channel Phoenix29 March 2024 - 13:39
Azerbaijan to construct four new renewable energy plants this year – energy minister
29 March 2024 - 13:30
Azerbaijan holds command-staff exercise in one of military units
29 March 2024 - 13:17
Azerbaijan, China strengthen economic ties
From trade to investment29 March 2024 - 13:10
Another suspect detained for alleged complicity in Moscow terrorist attack
29 March 2024 - 13:05
Politico: The European Parliament is once again caught in corruption
29 March 2024 - 12:52
Geopolitical storm brewing beyond Russia's reaction
EU-US-Armenia meeting sparks controversy29 March 2024 - 12:38
Speaker says Armenia doing nothing against Russia
29 March 2024 - 12:24
Armenia conducts house-to-house searches in apartments, offices of nationalists
29 March 2024 - 12:09
Ombudswoman: World community should recognize events of 1918 as genocide of Azerbaijanis
29 March 2024 - 11:57
Global trade at risk as Washington faces policy failure
US-Houthi stalemate continues29 March 2024 - 11:46