Russia’s muted comeback in Karabakh peace process
… amidst blurry trust of Azerbaijan and Armenia
ANALYTICS 06 December 2022 - 15:51
Fuad Shahbazov |
On December 5, 2022, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov paid an official visit to Moscow upon the invitation of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Reportedly, the main agenda of the meeting was the normalization of diplomatic relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia following the 44-day war in the Karabakh region in 2020. Bayramov’s visit came at a time when Baku-Moscow relations went through some ups and downs in the light of President Ilham Aliyev's remarks that Azerbaijan is ready to negotiate with Armenians in Karabakh, but Ruben Vardanyan, who has been sent by Moscow to Karabakh with a “very clear agenda”. Moreover, the negligence of the Russian peacekeeping mission to use original Azerbaijani toponyms in their bulletins about Karabakh despite consecutive notifications by the Azerbaijani Defence Ministry has further tested the relations.
Given the rising discontent in Baku, Lavrov’s invitation of his Azerbaijani counterpart to Moscow could be seen as Russia's endeavour to boost its "key mediator" image and make a quick comeback in the peace process. Due to the recent heavy losses in Ukraine, Moscow's role in the peace agenda between Baku and Yerevan was neglected, while the European Union (EU) quickly jumped in, though its participation is yet to bring tangible progress except for small breakthroughs.
Hence, Russia's muted comeback in the process raised some optimism in Baku that some tasks could be achieved by the end of 2022. Minister Bayramov pointed out that "there is still time to organize another meeting of Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders before 2022 ends.” Nevertheless, considering the uneasy period in the region, bilateral accusations of Baku and Yerevan for not demonstrating a sufficient commitment to peace suggest that the current round of peace negotiations could be more complicated than before. Azerbaijan cautiously watches Moscow’s stance on separatist developments in Khankendi and provocative actions alongside the Lachin highway. As such, on November 24, Azerbaijani State Security Service issued a statement saying the transportation of military equipment to the territory of Azerbaijan, where the Russian peacekeeping contingent is temporarily stationed, and the creating conditions for holding various provocative actions there are also of particular Meanwhile, the statement mentioned also the activities of Iranian security services in Azerbaijan’s Karabakh region.
Members of the Russian temporary peacekeeping mission in Azerbaijan's Karabakh region
As a result, the commander of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Karabakh General Andrei Volkov was put on a hot seat by Azerbaijani journalists on December 5 and vowed to "investigate the reports about arms smuggling and Iranian agents in Karabakh." This incident was also included in Minister Bayramov's agenda in Moscow, while Lavrov dubbed Azerbaijan's concerns as their priority. Hence, this time Sergei Lavrov vocally criticized Armenia for not following the commitments after the November 10 agreement, citing that the remnants of Armenian armed groups are still in Karabakh and violating the November agreement. Although Lavrov's statements aimed at gaining the sympathy of Azerbaijan, they stirred anger and criticism in Armenia.
Russia intensified its efforts to arrange another meeting of leaders following the postponed Brussels meeting of Aliyev and Pashinyan in December. Notwithstanding, many experts argue that with Moscow's interference, the peace process will stall as Yerevan is unwilling to give any concessions. Minister Bayramov, however, optimistically mentioned that Azerbaijan had already reached out to Armenia with the third package of the peace plan. Earlier official Baku presented two peace proposals to Armenia based on five main principles, albeit unsuccessfully. The current negotiations in Moscow may lead to more intensive peace talks between Baku and Yerevan enabling Russia to capitalize on the peace process and neutralize the Western efforts.
Another significant point about Lavrov’s speech was his reference to the Almaty declaration signed in 1991 by all post-Soviet states to lay the foundations of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). According to Lavrov, Armenia complicated its position by frequent references to the Almaty declaration. Following the Prague meeting between Aliyev and Pashinyan in October of this year, Armenia agreed to sign a peace deal based on the UN charter and Almaty declaration. Such a statement could be a signal that Russia’s renewed mediation efforts will not proceed smoothly.
European Council Charles Michel with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Brussels, August 31, 2022
Also, it is unlikely that the West, including the US, will be silently observing the process as bystanders, given the blurry trust in Azerbaijan and Armenia in Russia as a reliable peace mediator. Therefore, more active Western interference in the peace process could follow given the efforts of the Western powers to wean Russian influence off across the world, including in the South Caucasus.
Caliber.Az
1
|
Ukraine, West unleash hybrid operation against Azerbaijan Baku disappointed with Kyiv’s actions
25 March 2024 - 15:25
|
2
|
Syrian scenario for Armenia Russian, Israeli experts’ views for Caliber.Az
26 March 2024 - 17:27
|
3
|
Serbian president warns of difficult days ahead
27 March 2024 - 11:04
|
4
|
Understanding the complexities of Russian-Turkish relations Putin's delayed visit to Türkiye
25 March 2024 - 14:26
|
5
|
Global reactions to UNSC Gaza ceasefire resolution Diverse views, urgent action
27 March 2024 - 18:00
|
Georgian Business Association names main problem for business in Georgia
28 March 2024 - 14:22
S Korea, US, Japan discuss security cooperation against N Korea threats
28 March 2024 - 14:10
Armenian prime minister's office denounces government in exile
28 March 2024 - 14:00
Traders аre buying oil at fastest rate since 2020
28 March 2024 - 13:55
China’s Xi meets foreign business leaders amid jitters over economy
28 March 2024 - 13:42
Armenian MP predicts Russian border guard withdrawal from Azerbaijan border
28 March 2024 - 13:36
Kyrgyzstan warns citizens against online recruitment after Moscow terrorist attacks
28 March 2024 - 13:36
Foreign firms' losses from exiting Russia top $107 billion
28 March 2024 - 13:30
Russia exposes concerns over April 5 Armenia-EU-US high-level Brussels meeting
Moscow warning against growing western influence28 March 2024 - 13:22
US “strongly supports” Azerbaijan's COP29 presidency
28 March 2024 - 13:17
Senegal seeks independence from Paris
France loses another "colony"28 March 2024 - 13:04
Turkish foreign minister condemns PKK terrorism spreading abroad
28 March 2024 - 13:04
Le Figaro confession: France's failed policy towards Azerbaijan exposed
Pressure on Baku proved pointless28 March 2024 - 12:55
Armenian pundit: Pashinyan is called to Brussels to accept Baku’s conditions
28 March 2024 - 12:51
Khankendi continues to be cleared of Armenian weapons
NUMBERS28 March 2024 - 12:39
Russian Foreign Ministry accuses NATO of preparing for potential conflict
28 March 2024 - 12:30
Armenian banks ceasing Russian Mir cards threatens economic stability
Economist warns28 March 2024 - 12:21
Vucic warns of Serbia's Council of Europe departure amid Kosovo debate
Double standards alert28 March 2024 - 12:13
Yerevan does not recognize any “Karabakh government in exile”
Armenian PM’s statement28 March 2024 - 12:04
Azerbaijan to host international conference on mine clearance
28 March 2024 - 11:55
Kazakh leader calls for expansion of transit ties between Asian countries
28 March 2024 - 11:46
Fixing a fractured world in an age of uncertainty
Amashov converses with former Serbian President Boris Tadic/VIDEO28 March 2024 - 11:29
Armenian frontiers announce recruitment to Yerevan airport
28 March 2024 - 11:21
Kremlin urges Telegram to pay attention to use of social network by terrorists
28 March 2024 - 11:20
Western Azerbaijani Community accuses France of meddling in regional affairs
28 March 2024 - 11:14
Japan eyes upgrade of airports, ports for possible defence use
28 March 2024 - 11:08
France plans to turn South Caucasus into battlefield
Azerbaijan's security chief says28 March 2024 - 10:59
Armenia to abstain from CSTO drills amid "frozen" membership
28 March 2024 - 10:47
Azerbaijani Military Institute's cadets hone skills through naval training
PHOTO/VIDEO28 March 2024 - 10:34
Russian intelligence chief's visit to Pyongyang sparks speculation
28 March 2024 - 10:22
Turkish Aselsan secures multi-million-dollar export contracts for advanced defence systems
28 March 2024 - 10:10
Tension mounts within Armenia's ruling party amid recent attacks
28 March 2024 - 09:58
CSTO chief does not rule out Armenia’s possible withdrawal from the organization
28 March 2024 - 09:46
Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council of Azerbaijanis condemns European Parliament's biased resolution
28 March 2024 - 09:34
Ammunition found in Kalbajar district in westrern Azerbaijan
28 March 2024 - 09:22
Azerbaijani presidential aide slams ex-NATO chief’s biased report
Exposes financial interests behind28 March 2024 - 09:10
Iran Wire: Iran's diplomatic isolation deepens
28 March 2024 - 08:56
The Iranian conundrum: Shaping a way ahead
28 March 2024 - 07:01
The Vilayat Khorasan between Russia and Tajikistan
28 March 2024 - 05:00
“A new chapter in EU climate policy”
Swedish EU lawmaker talks carbon capture and bioenergy28 March 2024 - 03:00