"Moscow and Yerevan benefit from keeping Karabakh issue in limbo"
Experts share their thoughts with Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  27 December 2022 - 11:11

"Russia is very well aware that if Karabakh becomes part of Azerbaijan, the next step will be the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Karabakh and the Russian military base from Armenia, which will mean that Russia will remain outside the region," Avetik Ishkhanyan, chairman of the Armenian Helsinki Committee, told News.Am.

"Sergei Lavrov once again hinted that the Karabakh issue should be left for the future and that the so-called peace treaty should have nothing to do with the Karabakh issue. In this context, it might have been thought that the issue of mines should also be left for the future and that the Lachin corridor should be opened quickly. However, Lavrov's point of view contradicts that of the Armenian authorities, as they consider the Karabakh part of Azerbaijan. And Russia's policy proceeds not from its pro-Armenian policy, but from its own interests. The Armenian authorities are doing everything for Karabakh to remain part of Azerbaijan," Ishkhanyan said.

In his opinion, "Azerbaijanis are allegedly provoking Russian peacekeeping forces quite consistently so that they open fire in the direction of Azerbaijanis. In this case, the neutrality they are obliged to respect towards both sides will be violated."

"All these actions, non-participation in the meeting, and anti-Russian statements are coordinated with the Azerbaijani authorities so that after the withdrawal of the Russian peacekeepers Karabakh will remain with Azerbaijan, and the so-called enclaves in Armenia will be given to Baku. Moreover, further, a corridor will be given to Azerbaijan, i.e. Syunik (Zangazur - ed.). In this issue, there is unequivocal support from Türkiye, and many Western countries support the mentioned process. And Russia understands this process very well," the chairman of the Helsinki Committee of Armenia concluded.

In fact, Ishkhanyan says that official Yerevan is in full solidarity with the long-term goals set by Baku. And these goals directly contradict Moscow's desire to maintain its military presence in Armenia and Azerbaijan. How consistent are these thoughts of Ishkhanyan with today's realities? Or does this crossroads of interests look different?

The Georgian and Azerbaijani experts answered these questions for Caliber.Az.

Conflictologist, Ph.D. in International Relations, Professor at the Georgian Technical University Amiran Khevtsuriani notes that Ishkhanyan's opinion is difficult to comment on, as it is hard to imagine the Armenian government pursuing the interests of Azerbaijan.

"In this case, I have the impression that Mr. Ishkhanyan is somewhat politically biased. However, I would agree with him that Moscow has acted and continues to act in the region solely in its interests.

But at the same time, it is safe to say that the Kremlin is certainly not concerned about Karabakh and Armenian-Azerbaijani relations in general today. Because the 'Russian world' it has built over years is crumbling in Ukraine. Therefore, it needs a kind of time-out in the South Caucasus. The Kremlin will try to prolong the time as much as possible and to preserve its influence in the conflict zone. However, Moscow is well aware that this will become more and more difficult with time, as its reputation as a mediator is discredited, and the parties have lost confidence in it," Khevtsuriani said.

Ilgar Velizade, Azerbaijani international expert and head of the South Caucasus Political Scientists Club, sees the situation quite differently.

"Of course, individual theses of the Armenian representative can be taken into account, in particular, that Moscow's position is the need to ensure its presence in the region, and the old methods play a dominant role here. That is, the military and political presence is defined by the ability to moderate relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. By doing this, Moscow seems to remain an active participant in the process, so it needs the situation to be constantly in limbo. This approach unfortunately dominates, and we can see this from the statements of various leading Russian experts. The Armenian expert did not reinvent the wheel here," Velizade says.

Provoking tension between the peacekeepers and the Azerbaijani side is not beneficial to Russia for a number of reasons, he believes.

"In particular, because it will be an open conflict between Azerbaijan and Russia, and in the light of the current geopolitical situation around Russia, it is not at all beneficial for it. Because such a scenario means a conflict between Russia and Türkiye. That is, all the projects in the Turkish and Azerbaijani directions will be blocked. In addition to the crisis that Russia is now experiencing from the breakdown of relations with the West, such an option is extremely undesirable for Russia. Not everything is as easy as it seems to commentators in Armenia," the expert said.

On the other hand, with regard to Pashinyan, the thesis that he "surrendered Karabakh to Azerbaijan" is more exploited in political circles in order to weaken the position of the Armenian Prime Minister, Velizade noted.

"But in reality, it was just the opposite. Pashinyan tried in every possible way to prevent Azerbaijan from gaining full control over its territories and is doing so now. This used to be a military method, but now it is being done by the hands of Pashinyan's political allies France, the Armenian Caucus in the US, and so on. So to put the question that Pashinyan has agreed with Aliyev to 'surrender' Karabakh in such a primitive way is a calculation for primitive thinking. I understand the Armenian side is trying to play a multi-vector game.

On the one hand, Pashinyan does not benefit from Vardanian in Karabakh and in the region in general. He would of course like to get rid of him. To some extent, our desires are tactically the same here. But this does not mean that we cooperate on this issue.

On the other hand, Pashinyan would like to get rid of the Russian military and politically dominant presence, but he does not see Azerbaijan as a partner here. For the Armenian prime minister, the Azerbaijani-Turkish tandem is no less of a risk than Russia. It is a threat to Armenia's political establishment, and Pashinyan is not going to make any deals with Baku. He is trying to act in such a way as to get rid of some ballast, saying that Karabakh is de jure Azerbaijani territory. But at the same time, acting with the hands of his Western partners and allies, he tries to get them on his side in this issue, more so than Russia. It also needs the Karabakh issue to remain in limbo, but for the West to be more in favor of Armenia instead of Russia to show the population that the West supports Armenia and thus strengthen its position.

The Karabakh issue itself and the manipulation of the situation of Armenians in Karabakh is a constant factor in Armenian politics, both under Pashinyan and before he came to power. We can confidently say that any political force in Armenia will be involved in this if they come to power. So, no one in Armenia has given up Karabakh, to our regret. And so this game with many unknowns continues. Our president has recently explicitly said so. We understand that there are no people in the Armenian political establishment who can think otherwise on this issue, and we must be ready for it," Velizade summed up.

Caliber.Az