Armenia's modus operandi unchanged: Talking peace, gearing up for war
Baku warns Yerevan against missteps

ANALYTICS  02 April 2024 - 16:45

In a recent interview with Argentine publication Todos Noticias, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan discussed the country's current foreign policy priorities, sending another message to Moscow regarding Yerevan's choice of main partners. He reaffirmed Armenia's decision to build strong partnerships with the United States and Europe, stating that the two regions are now the country's main partners. The minister added that Armenia is working to deepen its economic and political relations with both regions.

When asked about possible retaliation from Russia for this Western integration, the minister clarified that Armenia is not turning away from Russia but is instead seeking to ensure its security and development on a democratic path. He emphasized that the West has been a reliable partner in this effort.

Armenia has often cited security as a key reason for its move towards Western partners and has been exploring the possibility of replacing Russia, which has traditionally provided a security umbrella for Armenia, with two new "security umbrellas" - the EU and the US. To this end, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is scheduled to meet with the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in Brussels on April 5. During this meeting, it is expected that a military pact will be signed, which will guide Armenia's future foreign policy.

This meeting may accelerate the process of Armenia's disengagement from Russia, including the withdrawal of Russian border guards from the Yerevan airport and the 102nd Russian base from Gyumri. This has been a topic of discussion among Russian experts, with many considering the withdrawal of the Russian military from Armenia to be a foregone conclusion.

Russian military expert Alexei Khlopotov shares the same viewpoint when speaking on the matter with Caliber.Az. According to him, it's highly likely that the process of withdrawing Russian bases and Armenia's exit from the CSTO could speed up after this meeting.

However, it's difficult to predict what Russia can realistically do in such a situation. In Khlopotov's opinion, the only feasible pressure Russia can exert is through economic means, such as closing the corridor of parallel imports through Armenia. But this action will be painful for both sides. Therefore, it seems more likely that Russia would not take any action at all. If Armenia decides on base withdrawal, Moscow will express formal regret and withdraw it. This is because building up its troop grouping in Ukraine is more important for Russia today.

Khlopotov believes that Putin has already received some guarantees from Erdogan and Aliyev and therefore will not significantly interfere in the South Caucasus region. He also added that Russia does not have the necessary resources or effective levers to do so.

In fact, Russia's statements on Armenia have so far been limited to the level of the Foreign Ministry. It should be recalled that the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, recently reiterated in an interview with the Izvestia newspaper that Yerevan's pro-Western approaches do not correspond to the interests of the Armenian people and Russia. In the same context, it is appropriate to quote recent statements by Grigory Karasin, Chairman of the Federation Council Foreign Affairs Committee, that Moscow is paying attention to all Armenian statements regarding partnership with the United States and the European Union.

"I am inclined to believe that Armenia is becoming an object of geopolitical games of the United States and the West in the broad sense of the word in the context of confrontation with Russia. This is very dangerous and, by the way, can cause very concrete damage not only to relations between Yerevan and Moscow but also to Armenia's influence and prospects in regional and world affairs. Not to understand this is a very dangerous misunderstanding," Karasin told Lenta.ru.

But let's return to Mirzoyan's insinuations to the Argentinean publication. The Armenian minister said that "Armenia has legitimate expectations regarding the mutual fulfilment of the countries' obligations". It is clear that when the authorities speak of Russia's obligations towards Armenia, they are referring to Moscow's military and political support for Azerbaijan. It is no coincidence that the leadership in Yerevan has recently been making provocative statements against Baku, creating an imaginary threat of war that Azerbaijan is supposedly about to unleash. The day before, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan told parliament that Azerbaijan was looking for a reason to go to war.

"Baku, which is demanding that Yerevan hand over four villages, is looking for a pretext for a new military conflict," the Armenian minister said. The villages in question are Baganis Ayrum, Ashagi Askipara, Kheirimli and Gizilgadzhili. Pashinyan has previously stated that they are not on the sovereign territory of Armenia. However, it is well known that Yerevan's real steps and actions always differ from the "peace-loving" rhetoric of the Armenian authorities. For example, in an interview with Todos Noticias, Mirzoyan made encouraging statements, noting that "Yerevan can achieve peace with Baku".

"There are difficulties, there are problems, of course, but we believe that it is possible to reach a peace agreement with Azerbaijan. For our part, we are making constructive efforts to find solutions," the Armenian minister said, sending a declarative message to the international community about Yerevan's alleged mood for peace with Baku.

The Armenian policy towards Azerbaijan is different in reality. This is confirmed by the current tension on the imaginary Armenian-Azerbaijani border, where there is a concentration of personnel, armoured vehicles, and artillery installations, as well as intensive movement of troops of the Armenian Armed Forces in various directions. In recent days, the revanchist forces' rhetoric threatening Azerbaijan with war and the amount of inflammatory information have also increased. Baku has already warned the Armenian side that any attempt at provocation will be immediately stopped and that all responsibility for the escalation will fall on Armenia.

Recent history has clearly shown that Yerevan does not understand the language of diplomacy and only yields to the power of the "Iron Fist". Should Yerevan choose to repeat its prior missteps, it will inevitably experience repercussions as a result of its imprudent actions.

Caliber.Az