SCO focuses on expansion, bilateral deals, long-term vision for unified global South
Highlights from Astana 2024 summit

ANALYTICS  05 July 2024 - 16:14

The most significant event of the week was the 24th summit of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) 24th Expanded Summit of the Member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which took place on July 3–4, 2024, in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan.

The SCO was established based on agreements for military trust-building and mutual reduction of armed forces along the borders, signed by the Russian Federation, Tajikistan, China, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan in 1996–1997. These unprecedented agreements led to the highest-level supervision of their implementation, giving rise to regular meetings of the leaders of these five SCO member states, known as the Shanghai Five.

Later, India, Iran, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan joined the organization, and on July 3, 2024, Belarus became a member. Afghanistan and Mongolia hold observer status, while 14 countries are considered dialogue partners. Many observers believe that over time, the SCO structures could evolve into an Asian counterpart to the European Union, with an economic influence far surpassing that of old Europe.

One of the most important participants in the summit was President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is among the SCO's dialogue partner states. During the summit, President Aliyev met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The two leaders highlighted the growth in trade between the countries, noting that the volume of direct Russian investment in Azerbaijan's economy has reached $4.5 billion.

However, they emphasized that a more significant development is the construction of the North-South transport corridor, which will pass through eleven countries and connect Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran, and India. This project is envisioned to become a land-based alternative to the Suez Canal, linking Asia and Europe.

President Aliyev also noted that the mutual settlement of national currencies between the two countries has increased, with Russian exports to Azerbaijan reaching about 50 per cent and Azerbaijani exports to Russia exceeding 70 per cent. President Aliyev affirmed that the 2022 Declaration on “Allied Interaction between the two countries is being successfully implemented in all aspects.

A major issue at the summit was the admission of new members to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The most significant development was Belarus’ transition from observer status to full membership in the organization. This move demonstrates that the SCO is expanding its influence beyond the borders of Asia. Another potential candidate for membership is Afghanistan. Zamir Kabulov, Russian President's special envoy to Afghanistan, stated in June that Russia would support Kabul’s accession to the SCO once the Taliban, the ruling entity in Afghanistan since 2021, is removed from the list of terrorist organizations. Both the Russian Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of Justice are prepared to pursue this step.

Experts paid particular attention to the negotiations between the leaders of Russia and China. Even before the event commenced, Vasily Kashin, a senior research fellow at the Higher School of Economics, noted that "three key issues would dominate the discussions between President Putin and President Xi." Firstly, they would address the outcomes of President Putin's visit to North Korea, which led to significant shifts in the situation on the Korean Peninsula. Secondly, they would discuss the Ukraine issue, with recent developments including a failed conference in Switzerland involving Kyiv and its Western partners. Attention is increasingly turning to China's initiative and the positions of other developing countries.

Thirdly, they would tackle the crisis in trade calculations between Russia and China, exacerbated by the latest wave of sanctions affecting the Shanghai branch of VTB Bank, which had been a primary channel for mutual financial transactions. Large companies continue to handle transactions, while small and medium-sized businesses are suffering from secondary sanctions.

Regarding Ukraine, Beijing’s position remains deliberately neutral. China does not seek to show solidarity with Russia, as this would undermine its role as a potential mediator in the conflict. Beijing advocates for a ceasefire, the maintenance of the status quo on the ground, and subsequent negotiations.

Western media have extensively covered the SCO summit as a consolidation of the "Global South" against the "Global West," but experts argue that such concerns are overstated.

"It is impossible to talk about a direct confrontation between the 'Global West' and the 'Global South' today for several reasons," says Gaziz Abishev, Kazakh political scientist.

"The 'Global South' itself is highly heterogeneous. Many countries within this broad category have strong ties with leading Western countries. For example, India has close connections with the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia maintains deep relations with the US, which is both a major buyer of its oil and a guarantor of its security.

Furthermore, there are significant internal contradictions within the 'Global South' itself: conflicts between India and China, India and Pakistan, China and Malaysia, and so forth.

What is true, however, is that some countries in the 'Global South' currently view Russia as a sort of 'battering ram' or 'proxy torpedo' aimed at persuading the West to cease interfering in the sovereign affairs of other states and to allow them to live as they see fit. In this regard, there is a certain degree of unity,” Abishev concludes.

The leaders who attended the summit in Astana on July 3-4 signed a series of agreements aimed at bolstering cooperation within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in various domains including politics, security, economics, and culture.

The summit saw the signing of numerous cooperation agreements in the fields of energy, trade, and border security. The participants discussed the preparation of the "Astana Declaration," which emphasizes global unity for a just and peaceful world and aims to enhance trust and stability.

Additionally, several other documents addressing current regional development issues were also finalized. Notably, an agreement was reached for Russian President Vladimir Putin to visit Türkiye at the invitation of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

What are the outcomes of the summit? According to experts, the main achievement of the Astana summit was the bilateral agreements made through personal meetings between the heads of state. Beyond this, the current significance of the SCO is more diplomatic than practical. While the meeting highlighted intentions to move away from the dollar in mutual transactions, strengthen counter-terrorism efforts, and address territorial disputes, tangible actions in these areas remain, for the most part, behind the scenes from the perspective of external observers.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization still has a long path ahead before it can transform from a forum for leaders of China, Russia, and Central Asian countries—where statements are made “for all that is good and against all that is bad”—into a fully-fledged global center of power.

The views and opinions expressed by guest columnists in their op-eds may differ from and do not necessarily reflect the views of the editorial staff.

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