Russia-EU competition in Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiation process benefits Baku
Interview with Farhad Mammadov

INTERVIEWS  20 April 2022 - 18:06

“Brussels has swapped places with Russia in the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiation process”, Azerbaijani political analyst Farhad Mammadov told Caliber.Az while commenting on the recent meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Moscow.

Mammadov pointed to an interesting trend emerged around the negotiation process on the Karabakh issue.

"At the end of October 2021, it was announced that a trilateral meeting between the head of the European Council, Charles Michel, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan would be held in December within the framework of the Eastern Partnership summit. While everyone was waiting for this meeting, a trilateral meeting was organized for several days in late November in Sochi with Russian President Vladimir Putin, where the Sochi statement was adopted. That is, everyone knew about the date of the upcoming Brussels meeting, but Russia took the initiative in just a few days and held its round of talks in Sochi.

As for yesterday's meeting, Brussels swapped places with Russia. Pashinyan's visit to Moscow was known long beforehand. And now the EU has shown initiative and organized a trilateral meeting in a traditional format before the visit of the Armenian Prime Minister to Moscow. Moreover, Michel used Putin's method: before Pashinyan's visit to Moscow, the head of the European Council called him and reminded him of the commitments made in Brussels. In fact, this is a very interesting point, which indicates that there is competition between Russia and the EU. However, if earlier the mediators were in contact with each other, and expressed some support for each other's initiatives, now they communicate on this issue, neither in the EU-Russia format nor in the format of the OSCE Minsk Group (MG) co-chairmanship, which has fallen into oblivion. But by and large, currently, Armenia is the only intermediary between the de facto non-existent OSCE MG, Russia and the EU, which are supposed to play the role of an intermediary between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Such an absurd situation has developed," the political expert noted.

Nevertheless, according to Mammadov, the competition around the negotiation process is in Azerbaijan's interests.

"First, there is no monopoly mediator. Azerbaijan, regardless of who the mediator is, has its own goals and these goals are achieved either through mediation (maps of minefields) or by its own efforts. Moreover, if the proposals put forward by any mediator are not in the interests of Azerbaijan, the process will not move forward. In this context, we can recall the activities of the OSCE MG. The agenda of that organization did not fit the interests of Azerbaijan, and that is why the co-chairs could not even visit the region. However, as the EU wanted to be a mediator, it had to accept Baku's demands, i.e. fair review of financial assistance packages for Armenia and Azerbaijan, exclusion of the term "Nagorno-Karabakh" from its rhetoric, reference to the OSCE MG, mentioning of the word "conflict", etc. We can also recall the story of UNESCO’s visit to the region. In other words, if the proposals of the mediators do not meet the interests and demands of Azerbaijan, they will not be implemented. The fact is that after the Second Karabakh War, geopolitical realities allow Azerbaijan to promote its agenda. Yes, things are not moving as fast as we would like them to, but they are still moving forward. In this context, it would be appropriate to recall the signing of a memorandum with Iran on communications and much more. Besides, Baku is unilaterally determining the border, deploying its troops, and destroying the remnants of armed bands on the territory of Karabakh. That is, all this is going on. And I think that all the main mediators, Russia and the EU, accept this reality as we present it. They understand that if the interests of Azerbaijan are not taken into account, it will be impossible to achieve progress," said the analyst.

Next, Mammadov stressed the importance of maintaining consistency in the implementation of the five principles previously put forward by Azerbaijan.

"The issue of order is not a matter of principle, but it is very important because here everything works on the domino effect. If you push one of the stones, the whole structure will collapse. It is important to understand where to start. Especially since all of these processes are interrelated. But first, we have to conclude a framework agreement, a peace treaty, which includes the five principles that Azerbaijan has put forward. It says that we remove the main issue of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan - the issue of territorial claims towards each other and the recognition of territorial integrity, there are obligations to solve all the issues in a political-diplomatic way. That is, it will be the first document defining the atmosphere for solving all the other issues. After all, it is impossible to unblock communications without at least partial delimitation and demarcation of borders. These processes are interrelated. And this commission is going to be created, and its mandate actually implies this. But it would be more logical to conclude a peace treaty first, to recognize each other, to make a commitment to solve all questions by political and diplomatic means, and in parallel or maybe afterwards to make decisions about infrastructure, border, etc. I think that this issue is the cornerstone of the peace treaty, which logically should be at the beginning of the process," the expert believes.

In conclusion, Mammadov noted that the near term of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations depends on the decisions that will be made now.

"If confrontational logic continues instead of constructive decisions, nothing good can be expected. In general, for 30 years of independent existence, Azerbaijan and Armenia have formed a very large content of confrontation, coming from the military logic, aimed at the destruction, and depletion of each other. Mental activity in both societies is aimed at harming each other. And in this, we must admit, both Azerbaijan and Armenia have been quite successful.

We don’t almost have post-conflict, peaceful interaction. That is why right now the Azerbaijani side wants to create this content, to put an end to the confrontation between the two states and societies. This process has to start at some point. Therefore, the future of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations depends on the decisions that will be taken now," Mammadov concluded.

Caliber.Az