"It's a shame that even Simonyan and Kandelaki are happy with the Georgian authorities' behaviour"
Caliber.Az's interview with Tengiz Ablotia

INTERVIEWS  26 May 2022 - 12:53

Caliber.Az presents an interview with Tengiz Ablotia, a Georgian political analyst.

- Georgia and the US approved the concept of military cooperation for 10 years. Does it mean that Tbilisi is shifting its strategic choice of cooperation with NATO to concrete cooperation with the US?

- Georgia made this choice a long time ago, but given the specific nature of the current government, there are many questions: "Georgian Dream" is trying to keep a foot in both camps, rhetorically proclaiming its commitment to a pro-Western course, but at the same time, trying too hard not to anger Russia.

In general, the current Georgian government prefers Moscow to Washington or Brussels for one simple reason: Russia has no demands related to reforms, normal elections, or changes in the judicial system. The West, by contrast, always stresses the need for continuing reforms. The problem is that with a free judiciary and fair elections, the current ruling party would lose the first election.

Accordingly, they are more comfortable with Moscow than with the West, but they cannot change their foreign policy orientation completely: firstly, this will not be accepted by the public opinion, and secondly, the bulk of the capital of Georgia's informal ruler Bidzina Ivanishvili is lodged in the West. He is well aware that in case of crossing the red line, which is a direct re-orientation towards Russia and the associated tightening of domestic politics, the West will impose sanctions against him, which, unlike Russia, no one will help him circumvent.

Accordingly, playing a double game successfully continues, and the concept of military cooperation is part of this policy.

- On April 29, IDS Borjomi Georgia announced a temporary suspension of production at two plants in Georgia due to financial problems. In addition, some countries have refused to buy mineral water from the company for political reasons. What way out of the situation do you see?

- There is probably only one way out - nationalization of the company with its subsequent privatization, and selling it to a company, probably local, which is not under sanctions and has nothing to do with Russia.

- What is your attitude to the Georgia-Azerbaijan-Turkey cooperation format?

- The format of cooperation between Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkiye is the most proper step that our three countries can take together. Especially if we take into account that after the Russian aggression against Ukraine, the situation on the international transport map has changed dramatically – China is looking for new routes for the delivery of goods to Europe, and this is a huge chance for all of us to find a place in this market.

None of the countries, neither Turkiye, nor Azerbaijan, let alone Georgia, can do it alone, and coordination is very important here. This chance comes once in a century, and if we do not use it now, there will be no transport corridor, and China will be lost.

- The chairman of the ruling "Georgian Dream" party Irakli Kobakhidze has publicly called on his opponents inside and outside the country to articulate what the accusations of "not enough support" for Ukraine are. Do you think that Tbilisi has supported Kyiv enough?

- Absolutely not enough. Moreover, the behaviour of the current government toward Ukraine has caused such odious propagandists as Margarita Simonyan and Tina Kandelaki to be satisfied. It is a real shame, the way they behave. As has already been said, they are used to playing double games, and in peacetime, this may not have angered anyone, but now there is a black and white war in which there is no time for halftones.

"Georgian Dream" seems to support Ukraine, but at the same time, it reckons with Russia more than is required, for example, representatives of the authorities were not at the concert of the female part of the Lviv symphony orchestra. It is clear that even the last crazy man on earth should have understood that Russia will not bomb Georgia because of the concert, but nevertheless, nobody from "Georgian Dream" was there.

The current government of Georgia considers the Ukrainian government an enemy to a greater extent than Putin, because they treat Saakashvili well in Kyiv, and accordingly there can be nothing worse for the "Georgian Dream". For them, Zelenskyy is more of an enemy than Putin. In general, in terms of Ukraine, the current Georgian authorities have disgraced themselves. I think they will be reminded of this after the war.

- How long, in your opinion, will Georgia have to wait for full membership in the EU and NATO? Don't you think that such a long wait at the doors of NATO and the EU may discourage possible candidates for membership in these organizations? Is there a similar scepticism in Georgia?

- Of course, we will have to wait a long time, and of course, this encourages scepticism, but on the other hand, it is clear that big goals are not given easily. As we see, the situation in the world is changing and what was impossible yesterday may well become reality tomorrow. We just have to do our work, set high goals and not to retreat.

- Azerbaijan and Armenia have simultaneously formed State Border Delimitation Commissions, and the first meeting has already taken place at the border. What are your expectations in this matter?

- I am not an expert in Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, but I suspect that the process will be delayed. In Armenia, there is no mass readiness of the society to accept the existing realities, the revanchist moods are still strong there, and the belief that the defeat in the Second Karabakh War was an unfortunate misunderstanding, which can be corrected by the new government.

It will probably take some time for Armenians to realize that the territorial issue is closed and that Yerevan has no possibility, even theoretically, of returning the territories liberated by Azerbaijan. The sooner they understand this, the sooner the situation will begin to change for the better. But it will take a lot of time. Especially, considering the fact that Pashinyan's policy has now become the object of fierce criticism from certain parts of Armenian society.

Caliber.Az