Armenia torn between choices: rebellion or peace with Baku?
The time for manoeuvres is over

ANALYTICS  02 June 2022 - 16:51

Although the street protests in Armenia have taken a small time-out, it is still too early to speak about their end. The opposition has acquired a taste for it, as they say, and it persistently tries to trigger another internal political collapse under several circumstances favourable to it. First of all, it is the degrading mood in the society after the defeat of Armenia in the Second Karabakh War and the loss of Karabakh. The growing dissatisfaction with the policies of the current government, as well as the personal factor of Pashinyan himself, who was declared a "traitor" to the Armenian nation by the protesters because of his willingness to make peace with Baku and Ankara, also plays into the hands of the protesters.

It is appropriate to add to this list the anti-Russian and anti-Turkish factors, which have now become an integral part of the Armenian ideology, both pro-government, and opposition. This aspect requires separate consideration, but there is no doubt that the resentment of Armenians towards the policy of Moscow and Ankara on the Karabakh issue will be a topic of rants by Yerevan propagandists for a long time to come.

As for the protest boom, it is known that it began in mid-April, specifically after Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan suggested "lowering the bar on the Karabakh status issue" and urged to sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan. The parliamentary opposition immediately accused the prime minister of intending to "surrender Karabakh," and protest leaders stated that the "Resistance Movement" would continue until he resigned.

According to Armenian media reports, the deputy speaker of the "Armenia" bloc Ishkhan Saghatelyan is the leader of the opposition camp in the current protests in Yerevan. At least, it is his name that has recently appeared more often in publications about the protest rallies. The protesters demand Pashinyan's resignation, block governmental buildings, and the "Red Berets," a special police unit of the republic, act more harshly than usual: there are casualties, including among policemen.

Judging by the fact that the protest movement in Armenia has been going on for two months, the opposition has not exhausted its financial resources, replenished by the Armenian Diaspora and other external actors. And local political analysts remind us that the change of power in Armenia traditionally occurs after high-profile popular unrest. Pashinyan himself came to power this way in 2018, deposing Sargsyan.

This time, despite their persistence, the opposition failed to come even close to solving their main task - the removal of Pashinyan, and there are no serious preconditions for this at the moment. The lack of unity and consolidation in Armenian society is a key reason for the opposition's failure. The disunity in the Armenian society, which had been observed even before, was exacerbated after the defeat in the Second Karabakh War, de facto dividing the population into two camps: supporters of Pashinyan's policy, advocating the normalization of relations with Baku and Ankara, and the opposition bloc, craving for revenge. The latter is a rather weak link in its ideological and political convictions. In any case, even out of a hypothetical hundred thousand citizens of Yerevan, the opposition manages to bring to the streets not more than 5-10 thousand citizens and residents of the province. Meanwhile, the rest, the overwhelming majority of the population prefers to ignore the rallies, observing what is going on from the window. That is, many people in Armenia tacitly support the policy of the incumbent authorities and the peaceful settlement of relations with Baku and Ankara.

This situation is a serious political bonus that should be used by Nikol Pashinyan. Clearly, despite the revanchist views and sentiments of the opposition "patriots" in the post-conflict period, their chances of gaining power in Armenia are negligible. Sober-minded citizens understand that the protests only exacerbate the already hopeless socio-economic situation in the country, increasing tensions within the country and demoralizing society. In addition, most Armenians are not at all willing to "reclaim" Karabakh, realizing that another war with Azerbaijan will bring new losses and new defeat. Pashinyan can use this situation both against his political opponents and as an element of foreign policy to settle relations with his neighbours in the region - Azerbaijan and Turkiye.

Meanwhile, the second meeting of the Azerbaijani and Armenian border delimitation commissions is scheduled to take place in Moscow in the near future, during which the parties, with the mediation of the Russian side, will discuss the most sensitive details of the registration of the borders of the two countries. It is also known that Moscow has the necessary cartographic materials, which can be used by the parties as auxiliary. It is worth emphasizing that at the Moscow meeting the negotiators will return to the statements of the leaders of the three countries on the results of the Sochi summit in November 2021, which fully reflected the position of Azerbaijan. At that time, the Russian expert community considered the results of the Sochi summit as a political victory of the presidents of Russia and Azerbaijan. First of all, contrary to the intentions of Armenia, Vladimir Putin once again confirmed the necessity of launching the Zangazur transport corridor. And when the possibility of starting the process of border demarcation was considered, the Russian leader clearly stated the need for a bilateral commission, demonstrating a policy of common approaches between Russia and Azerbaijan to resolve the situation in the region.

In fact, the return to the statements of the leaders of the three countries after the Sochi summit leaves the Armenian prime minister not even a narrow space to manoeuvre again and evade the implementation of the points of agreement reached earlier. That is why the forthcoming meeting in Moscow is likely to become another driver (along with Brussels) in the issue of border demarcation and delimitation, which is being bypassed by the Armenian side in every possible way.

Meanwhile, Moscow and Brussels are closely following the process of Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations and the activation of the European political centre causes serious irritation to the Russian side. This is also understandable: Russia has always had a claim to control the South Caucasus region, and therefore Moscow perceives Europe's current mediation efforts very jealously. Russian experts say bluntly that European politicians are trying to steal mediation from Russia to normalize relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, but they think their efforts are in vain.

Moscow political analyst Dmitriy Verkhoturov, who spoke to Caliber.Az, shares the same opinion.

The expert believes that Russia plays a significant role in the improvement of relations between the two formerly warring countries and, in particular, in the future activities of the joint bilateral commission on the demarcation and delimitation of the borders. Verkhoturov stresses that it is largely thanks to Moscow that the sides are moving toward a compromise, although perhaps without much desire on the part of Yerevan.

"In light of the well-known events in Ukraine, it is not to Putin's advantage if a conflict flares up again in the Caucasus with the threat of turning into an armed fight. Therefore, he is likely to put pressure on both sides to come to an agreement and come to some kind of consensus despite Yerevan's reluctance. I think, in this case, we can talk about the probability of signing a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the foreseeable future, with the participation of Russia, of course," the political analyst says, noting that Moscow is interested in it at least to avoid leaving a stepping stone for Europe, which is trying to seize its mediation initiatives for Baku and Yerevan.

Caliber.Az