Armenia getting intensively militarised New war inevitable

The Hindustan Times, citing senior officials, reported that Armenia has asked India to modernise its Su-30SM fighter jets. This request by Yerevan is not surprising, as Armenia has recently established military-technical cooperation with India and has been buying various types of weapons from India.

According to Indian media, the modernisation of the Su-30SM, which Armenia is counting on, includes avionics, electronic warfare systems and weapons. This information is also confirmed by the Indian newspaper Business Standard, which reports that it is also about the purchase of Indian Astra air-to-air missiles. In his turn, Head of the Aviation Department of the Armenian Armed Forces Hovhannes Vardanyan told the Hindustan Times in an interview on the sidelines of the Tarang Shakti 2024 exercises that “Armenia is considering the possibility of modernising Su-30 fighters with the help of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), which has great experience in this field”. It should be noted that HAL manufactures Russian-made fighter jets for the Indian Air Force under licence at its Nashik-based aircraft manufacturing unit.

The intensity of New Delhi's defence cooperation with Yerevan shows that India, along with France, has become a major military supplier to Armenia and a catalyst for tension in the South Caucasus. As a reminder, Yerevan is to receive India's own Akash-1S air defence system by the end of 2024. Armenia placed an order for 15 such systems worth $720 million in 2022, becoming the first international customer of the Bharat Dynamics Limited platform.

Notably, by cooperating with Armenia in the military-technical sphere, India is pursuing its own geopolitical goals. The Jamestown Foundation's analysis states that India's growing partnership with Armenia not only facilitates the export of military equipment but also provides New Delhi with a strategic presence in the South Caucasus. Analysts say this will help India counter the influence of Pakistan and Türkiye in the region and enhance India's access to European and Eurasian markets. According to the analysis, the deepening defence cooperation between the two countries reflects their strategic efforts to reshape regional alliances. Abhinav Pandya, director of India's think tank Usanas Abhinav Foundation, in an interview with ETV Bharat in January this year, openly stated, “India has to counter the Türkiye-Azerbaijan-Pakistan axis in the South Caucasus region because Pakistan is our old enemy. That is why India is supplying military equipment to Armenia.”

In this context, India is expanding military cooperation not only with Armenia but also with Greece, which has serious differences with Türkiye. During the one-day official visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Athens in August 2023, Indian media wrote that this event would be “an important signal to Türkiye, which supports Pakistan's interests in the Kashmir issue”. At the same time, the Financial Express newspaper reported on India's plans to create a new centre of power involving Armenia and Greece as an alternative to the Türkiye-Pakistan-Azerbaijan alliance. Therefore, it leaves no doubt that Indian military supplies to Armenia are a demarche of New Delhi to Baku and Ankara because of their position on the Kashmir issue.

Amidst unabated revanchist sentiments in Armenia, as well as Yerevan's evasions from concluding a peace agreement based on the just demands of the Azerbaijani side, India's position contributes to further destabilisation of the South Caucasus. In Armenia itself, active militarisation is being carried out under the pretext of “diversifying its security”. The Armenian authorities invented this story in the expectation of preserving the image of a victim, allegedly suffering from “Azerbaijan’s aggressions”. Thus, in January of this year, in an interview with the Italian publication La Republiosa, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that the allegedly intensified militarisation was due to the fact that Yerevan was trying to diversify its security issues. It is clear that behind these statements by the Armenian prime minister are Yerevan's plans to replenish its military arsenal with new types of weapons.

The process of accelerated militarisation does not stop in Armenia even for a day. Thus, in February of this year, Armenian Defence Minister Suren Papikyan stated in an interview with Public TV that “Armenia has achieved serious success in the field of arms procurement”.

“In this process, we have also gained new partners at the level of major superpowers and other friendly countries. We are talking about France and India, but we are also talking about other partners, which I don't want to talk about yet,” Papikyan said.

At that time, the Armenian minister did not disclose the details of Yerevan's militaristic plans. However, Caliber.Az recently shared insider information from trustworthy sources that during the recent visit of Armenian Defence Minister Suren Papikyan to South Korea (September 10), an agreement was reached in Seoul on the supply of South Korean arms to Armenia. According to Caliber.Az, Seoul considered the possibility of purchasing either K1 or even K2 Black Panther tanks and other armaments. To note, the K2 Black Panther is the main battle tank of the South Korean army, developed by the Agency for Defence Development (ADD) and Hyundai Rotem (a division of Hyundai Motors).

Moreover, according to Caliber.Az, the list of potential arms exporters to Yerevan may be supplemented by Japan.

As we can see, Armenia is not limiting itself to military supplies from Europe and India only; it plans to expand the geography of its militarisation to East Asia and the Pacific region. By making hypocritical statements about its readiness to sign a peace agreement on the one hand and heavily arming itself on the other, Yerevan makes it clear that it wants war, not peace with Azerbaijan.

Official Baku, for its part, has repeatedly warned the Armenian authorities of the dire consequences Armenia could face in the event of a new military confrontation in the region. President Ilham Aliyev, in his speech at the international forum on “COP29 and Green Vision for Azerbaijan” organised at the ADA University in April this year, explicitly stated that Azerbaijan would take retaliatory measures in connection with Armenia's increased militarisation.

“We cannot sit and wait while France, India and Greece arm Armenia against us. They do it openly and demonstratively and even try to prove something to us in this way. We cannot just sit idly by. We have clearly communicated this position to the Armenian government and the parties that are trying to show concern for Armenia today. If we see a serious threat to ourselves, we will have to take serious measures,” the president warned.

It is up to Armenia to move towards a new catastrophe, instigated by its patrons, or to stop. Baku has said its word.