Armenia ventures upon new round of armed conflict Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

It seems that Armenia is trying to outdo itself by making its policy even more cynical. This is the conclusion that comes from an objective assessment of recent events in the region. Yerevan has in fact completely withdrawn from the negotiation process with Baku and at the same time is intensifying shelling of Azerbaijani positions in the border zone, pulling arms and equipment to the conditional border. Proof of this is a video shot recently by technical surveillance equipment, showing a whole column of military equipment with artillery installations and soldiers of the Armenian army travelling in the direction of Lachin. And all this against the background of accusations of "genocide" and "famine", which are repeated by various Armenian figures against Azerbaijan on all international platforms.

Does this mean that Armenia is preparing a new military escalation to complete its synopsis of the "long-suffering" nation, for which, of course, Azerbaijan and Türkiye are solely to blame? In such a case, who are the Armenians counting on, and whose support are they relying on at this time?

According to Russian political scientist Anton Bredikhin, a researcher at the Institute of China and Modern Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences, editor-in-chief of "Archont" magazine, and president of the Centre for Ethnic and International Studies, all signs point to an imminent armed escalation by the Armenian side. Speaking to Caliber.Az, he recalled the trite but always relevant truth: "Repeat actions make perfection," adding, however, "but not for Armenians."

"Pashinyan says one thing, claiming that Armenia is ready for peace and recognises Karabakh as Azerbaijani territory, but in fact it turns out quite the opposite: Yerevan does not mind at all to ignite separatism in Karabakh, without abandoning the already worked out schemes. And here the question is whether this is duplicity or schizophrenia.

Yerevan heats up the situation in Karabakh and on the conditional border, creating a picture of imaginary genocide, which can be shown to Western media and say: 'Look, Azerbaijan has done everything to achieve a humanitarian catastrophe in Karabakh'. Let's remember that large-scale wars start under such a guise," the Russian political scientist pointed out.

The expert recommends not forgetting about the triplicity, which has always been a postulate of Armenian statehood - Armenia, Karabakh, and the Diaspora.

"So the fact that Pashinyan is now seeking, having secured support from the diaspora and having received the approval of Paris, a chain of provocations is a fact. How many times have we discussed this situation, when Pashinyan seemed to promise peace and expressed hope that he would sign a peace treaty by the end of the year, but as soon as the Prime Minister returned to Armenia, he immediately forgot about his words?

In my opinion, official Yerevan has seriously decided to make concessions to revanchism and start a new aggravation in the region. Again, I am sure that all the possible consequences were given the go-ahead by one of Armenia's European sponsors, most likely Paris, and it is necessary to monitor the further development of the situation very carefully and cautiously," Bredikhin stressed.

The current situation in the region also alarms Israeli journalist-publicist, head of the International Relations Commission of the Union of Journalists of Israel Rostislav Goltsman.

"This is a case where one would very much like to be wrong in one's predictions. But, alas, the vector of events points to such a scenario. This classic of conflicts is familiar to Israelis not by hearsay: it seems that an armistice has been concluded, a ceasefire agreement has been reached, and the defeated side recognises the territorial integrity of the winner, but the only problem is that on the already recognised sovereign territory of the victorious state, there remains a certain national minority, in the persecution of which the defeated country suddenly begins to accuse the winner. And the mechanism of provocation is such that under the pretext of 'persecution', raising some unthinkable accusation, conducting incessant propaganda, when the arguments of the right side are simply buried under a pile of absurd statements of the provocateurs, this country is forced to justify itself and defend itself. That was the case, for example, when Israel and Jordan seemed about to sign a peace treaty, but the opposite happened.

In my opinion, all signs now indicate that either a large-scale war is planned in Karabakh or it is a prologue of a major armed conflict, which Yerevan is planning in co-authorship with the separatists. And we should be ready for it," Goltsman emphasised.

When most of the Armenian Armed Forces were expelled from the territory of Azerbaijan, many people hoped that peace would finally come, but it did not happen, the Israeli expert recalls. Tel Aviv's experience in confrontation with separatist entities shows that the defeated side, having recovered a little, and adapted to its defeat, can again start preparing for a new revenge.

"And of course, this could not have happened without some kind of outside help - that's obvious. Everything points to the fact that all the organisers of these provocations have received the support of the international community, and some of its representatives. And a very clear contender for conducting such a dirty game is France. France is a very clear contender for such a dirty game. France is a country that everywhere declares that it is ready to fight for peace in the South Caucasus, but in reality, it raises unreasonable hopes for revenge on the Armenian side. This means that a new large-scale armed conflict is coming. Again, I emphasise that I would very much like my prediction not to come true, but so far the signs speak otherwise," Goltsman summed up.

Kazakh political scientist Atbek Aitmatov believes that Yerevan's ties with the separatists have not broken after the 44-day war.

"Here it is worth taking into account such a slightly paradoxical fact as the functionality of Armenian separatism. Yes, its homegrown head may be allegedly at odds with official Yerevan, but when it comes to large-scale provocations against Azerbaijan, everything happens in a very coherent and coordinated manner. Besides, all the alleged misunderstandings between Harutyunyan and Pashinyan are also theatre. Wasn't it Pashinyan who appointed Araik to this position, having kicked Bako Sahakyan out of it? So Harutyunyan is always ready to serve Yerevan, and he knew very well what he was doing.

More than one thousand armed separatists in Karabakh are Yerevan's last chance to control a part of Karabakh, and he will not give them up for nothing. This is its last manipulation tool on the ground, so judging by the movement of military equipment and the intensification of armed provocations in the region, as well as the way peace initiatives have been decisively crossed out, Armenia has decided on a new round of armed conflict, with the likely support of France and Russia. This option is not excluded at all: recently Paris and Moscow have found themselves in the same harness of their geopolitical appetites," Aitmatov concluded.