“Azerbaijani Army will wipe Armenian gangs out from Karabakh if disbandment fails” Russian pundit on Caliber.Az

Caliber.Az has interviewed Russian international expert Dmitry Verkhoturov.

- What did you think of the outcome of the recent meeting in Moscow between the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia with the participation of the Russian foreign minister?

- As far as I understand, there were no major agreements at the end of the Moscow meeting, it was a question of all sorts of accumulated issues between the two foreign ministers. Accordingly, it was more of a working meeting, somehow related to the preparation of future agreements.

- In your opinion, amidst tough competition for leadership in the region between Moscow, Brussels and Washington, which of the mediators has more advantages in the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict?

- According to my observations, while a year ago it was possible to talk about some kind of competition, now, as events unfold, there is less and less of it. Yes, Western politicians are making some steps and attempts to resolve the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, but one must realise that the settlement of this problem depends on Moscow.

- Will Moscow promote the signing of a peace treaty before the end of this year?

  - As for the peace agreement, it is difficult to predict, because the situation is quite changeable. If, for example, in the spring it was possible to say that a peace treaty was about to be signed almost within days, now it is postponed for the future. And, of course, one can see constant manoeuvring, attempts to delay the settlement, which introduces a degree of uncertainty into the whole situation. But I am convinced that Armenia has no other alternative than the conclusion of a peace treaty. No matter how Yerevan evades, they will still sign this document.

- Armenia is still obstructing the opening of the Zangazur corridor, which, meanwhile, is also in Russia's interests. Why is Moscow not exerting the proper influence on Yerevan for the sake of the stability of the region?

- According to my estimates, Russia is still pursuing a rather soft line towards Armenia, seeing it as its ally in the future, so it prevents hard pressure in the regime to get everything at once. As a result of this policy, the opening of the Zangazur corridor is postponed indefinitely so that the Armenians who lost in this situation do not feel completely crushed and humiliated. Moscow still observes certain diplomatic parties. However, I think that even taking into account this nuance, the issue of the Zangazur corridor will be resolved one way or another, it will just take a little time and patience.

- How would you comment on India's military supplies to Armenia? Why is Yerevan militarising the region and are these supplies an alternative to Russian supplies?

- The point is that a significant part of Indian weapons is Russian since India is a long-standing military-technical partner of Russia. Therefore, it is quite possible that we are talking about the resale of Russian weapons. Or it is still a political demarche of Armenia, connected with the fact that the Armenian side began to block the supply of weapons laid down by the CSTO [Collective Security Treaty Organization], precisely because of the situation with Karabakh and its position. So, Yerevan decided to show its independence, they say, we will buy from India. But I do not think that we are talking about serious supplies, so this fact should not be perceived as militarization of the region. Moreover, Armenia does not have any alternatives to the military partnership with Russia.

- Armenia refuses to withdraw the remnants of its gangs from Karabakh, thereby violating the Trilateral Statement of November 2020. Is Azerbaijan competent to solve this problem on its own, based on the principle of sovereignty of its territories recognized by both Russia and the international community?

- I think that Armenia does not directly control these gangs to order them to withdraw from Karabakh. It is difficult for Armenia to put pressure on them now, especially with the current state of affairs. There are two possible scenarios: either these armed formations will disband due to the changed situation, or the Azerbaijani forces will eventually completely clean them up.

- Not so long ago, Pashinyan declared Armenia's readiness to recognize Karabakh as the territory of Azerbaijan. What does this mean, in your opinion?

- If we talk about Armenia's readiness to recognize Karabakh as the territory of Azerbaijan, it means that Nikol Pashinyan and the ruling Armenian circles are beginning to recognize the current state of affairs, that is, that they lost Karabakh after the 2020 war, and, therefore, it remains only to clarify the timing and forms of its final entry into Azerbaijan. The Armenian side, of course, is trying to delay this issue, to slow down, but in any case, it does not bring much to it.