Diplomatic source: No breakthrough expected in Azerbaijan-Armenia talks before COP29 VIDEO

A diplomatic source has revealed that the likelihood of Azerbaijan and Armenia signing a peace agreement in the coming days is "virtually nonexistent."

The source emphasized that there are "no grounds to expect a diplomatic surprise" this month, Caliber.Az report, citing ANEWZ.

Negotiations are set to continue after the COP29 – UN Climate Change Conference, which will be hosted in Baku. The source also indicated uncertainty surrounding Armenia's participation in the conference, stating, "It remains unclear whether Armenia will participate, and if so, its degree of representation still remains in the dark."

This development comes as a surprise given the heightened international expectations following a recent meeting between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at the BRICS+ summit in Kazan, Russia. Observers had noted that the two leaders engaged in what appeared to be a sincere conversation, raising hopes for a potential peace deal.

As the situation unfolds, both sides are urged to maintain open lines of communication, though the prospect of a swift resolution remains uncertain.

Both Baku and Yerevan have consistently stated that approximately 80% of the draft text for the Agreement on Peace and Establishment of Interstate Relations is now finalized, although some obstacles remain.

Out of the 16 articles in the draft document, there is full agreement on 13, while three articles remain contentious. The Azerbaijani side is firmly opposed to signing a limited agreement based solely on the articles that have been accepted, while Armenia has proposed an interim deal that would exclude the three disputed provisions.

The nature of these contentious articles has always been a critical question.

Although the specific details of the three unresolved clauses have not been disclosed publicly, it is believed that one pertains to Azerbaijan’s concerns about territorial claims against its internationally recognized Karabakh region, as referenced in the preamble of the Armenian Constitution. Azerbaijan has consistently emphasized this point as a crucial condition for finalizing the long-anticipated agreement.

Conversely, the Armenian side views this demand as an intrusion into its domestic affairs, contending that the inclusion of a special clause in the agreement—specifying that no domestic legislation will undermine the obligations arising from the deal—renders Azerbaijan's request unwarranted. Furthermore, Yerevan has recently minimized the legally binding significance of the 1990 Declaration of Independence mentioned in the preamble of its Constitution.

Azerbaijan and Armenia have already completed the delimitation and demarcation of a 12.4 km section of their interstate border. On August 30, they adopted a regulation outlining joint activities for their border commissions, and both sides have completed all necessary internal procedures related to this matter. Azerbaijan asserts that, given this progress, there is no need for third-party involvement along the interstate border, as the situation can be managed bilaterally. In contrast, Armenia appears to support the deployment of an EU Mission on the interstate border as part of the agreement.