Global terrorism targets Africa The sad legacy of colonialism

Global terrorism has shifted its centre of operations to Africa: more than half of its victims now come from former French colonies. What are the reasons behind this shift?

According to the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) report by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), there has been a significant increase in terrorist activity in the Sahel region. The governments of several countries in this area are actively seeking to free themselves from the post-colonial dependence on France.

The black book of terrorism

In 2024, over 50% of all deaths resulting from terrorist attacks occurred in Sahel countries. Sixteen out of the 20 deadliest attacks worldwide also took place in this region. The largest attack occurred in July 2024 in the Tahoua region of Niger, where 237 people were killed. Burkina Faso suffered the most, ranking first in the world for the number of terrorism-related deaths, with 20% of all global victims attributed to the country.

The Sahel has witnessed an unprecedented rise in terrorism-related deaths. Compared to 2007, the number has increased thirty-fold. The region has become the new epicentre of international terrorism, overtaking the previous centres of the Middle East and North Africa. Most of the Sahel countries were once part of the French colonial empire.

The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) is calculated based on four indicators: the number of terrorist attacks, the number of deaths, injuries, and hostages taken over the last five years. According to the GTI, the countries most impacted by terrorism in 2024 were: Burkina Faso, Pakistan, Syria, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Somalia, Israel, Afghanistan, and Cameroon. Russia ranked 16th in this index, Azerbaijan 90th, and Belarus 91st. Thus, Azerbaijan, with an index of 0.233, confirmed its status as one of the safest countries with the least terrorist threat.

In addition to Africa and the Middle East, alarming signals are coming from other regions of the world. In 2024, the number of countries affected by terrorism increased from 58 to 66. Forty-five countries saw an increase in terrorist activity. In the West, the level of terrorist attacks rose by 63%, and in Europe, the number of attacks doubled within a year. A particularly sharp increase in attacks occurred in the U.S. driven by Islamophobia and anti-Semitism, with the number of attacks rising by 200% in 2024.

Terrorism marches across the planet

What is the dynamic of international terrorism over the past decade? The peak of terrorist activity worldwide occurred in 2014-2015, but by the early 2020s, radical groups began to slow down. By 2019, the number of deaths from terrorist attacks had decreased by 59% compared to the 2014 levels. In seven out of nine regions of the world, terrorist activity declined, with the most significant reductions observed in Iraq, Syria, and Nigeria. The exceptions were South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, where the terrorist threat, in contrast to the Middle East and North Africa, had intensified.

In 2021, the trend of decreasing casualties continued: global losses from terrorism dropped by another 1.2%. The most significant reduction occurred in the West, where the number of attacks fell by a remarkable 68%. At the same time, Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 48% of all deaths from terrorist attacks. Terrorist organizations, especially in the Sahel, significantly ramped up their activities. That year, the "Islamic State" increasingly shifted its focus to Africa, surpassing the "Taliban" in terms of casualties.

In 2022, there was the largest decrease in terrorist threats in a decade. Compared to 2021, the number of fatalities decreased by 9%, and in relation to the peak in 2015, it had dropped by 50%. IEP experts attribute this to the transition of the "Taliban" from a terrorist group to a governing power. While this could also be due to the end of the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan and the subsequent reduction in civil war, it was the former French colonies in the Sahel that became the new epicentre of terrorist activity. The region accounted for 43% of all terrorism-related deaths globally.

In 2023, the situation changed dramatically, with a sharp 22% increase in fatalities from terrorist attacks. This marked the highest level of terrorist lethality since 2017. Many analysts attribute this rise to the Hamas attack from the Gaza Strip. However, in Iraq, the number of terrorism-related deaths dropped by 99% compared to the peak in 2007. The most significant increase in terrorist activity was recorded in Burkina Faso, where the number of deaths rose by 68%.

In 2024, the number of terrorism-related deaths decreased by 13%, along with a slight drop in the number of attacks by 3%. However, this decline can be attributed to the high baseline effect after the surge caused by the actions of Hamas in 2023. At the same time, there has been a doubling of attacks carried out by lone wolves in Western countries. The typical profile of such a perpetrator is a young individual, not affiliated with extremist organizations but sharing radical views, often an active participant in specialized forums and gaming communities. In contrast, in West African countries, terrorist attacks are mainly carried out by large radical groups.

Sahel: A war zone

The "Islamic State" (IS), "Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin" (JNIM), and "Al-Shabaab Mujahideen Movement" (ASM) are listed in the IEP report as the largest terrorist organizations in Africa. Along with the "Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan" (TTP), they are among the leaders of global terrorism. In 2024, the activity of these four organizations continued to rise, with the number of people killed by them increasing by 11%. The highest number of casualties was attributed to IS, which killed 1,805 people in 22 countries just last year. At the same time, the activity of the "Boko Haram" group increased, making it the deadliest group in Nigeria in 2024. Meanwhile, the activity of its competitor, the "Islamic State in West Africa," declined.

In the Sahel, JNIM maintains the greatest influence, controlling significant territories, especially in Mali, and strengthening its positions in several local communities. The group claims to fight against the oppression of Muslims, foreign occupation, and aims to establish Islamic rule. According to IEP data, 38% of JNIM's victims are civilians. In 2024, in the capital of Mali, Bamako, JNIM militants attacked a military academy and airbase, killing 60 soldiers.

The region also saw a noticeable increase in IS activity, as the group continued to move its operations from the Middle East and North Africa. According to a group of UN experts, in 2023, IS doubled the territory under its control in Mali. Concurrently, the number of victims killed by unidentified armed groups is on the rise.

In 2024, the level of terrorism in the Sahel was nearly ten times higher than in 2019. Niger became the record holder, with the highest number of deaths from terrorist attacks in the world, accounting for 94%. In Chad, the rise in terrorism-related deaths over the year was 80%, marking the highest figure in the country’s history. Back in 2007, the Sahel region accounted for only 1% of all terrorism-related deaths worldwide. The sharp surge began in 2012, following the fall of Muammar Gaddafi's regime in Libya, when former Tuareg fighters from his army joined the uprising in Mali. This event became a trigger for destabilization across several countries in the region, including Burkina Faso, Mauritania, Niger, and Chad.

The latest escalation began in 2021-2022 and continues to this day. Since 1997, terrorists have killed 25,000 people in the Sahel countries, with 3,385 of them in 2024 alone. Burkina Faso has been the most affected country by terrorism worldwide for the second consecutive year. What are the reasons behind this?

The main causes of violence in the region include poverty, the heavy legacy of French colonialism, and ongoing exploitation by imperialist powers. Reports from IEP and several other analytical sources also point to the weakness of state institutions, as well as climate and environmental challenges. Additionally, the Sahel serves as a key transit route for cocaine from South America to Europe, and the fight for control over this route has been a factor in the Tuareg uprising in Mali. The situation is further exacerbated by internal conflicts between the centre and the provinces, between farmers and herders, and among ethnic groups and communities. In Mali, for example, this involves the conflict between the Dogon, Fulani, and Bambara people, while in Burkina Faso, the conflict is between the Mossi and Fulani. The armed confrontation involves not only radical organizations but also tribal militias and self-defence groups.

Across regions of Africa south of the Sahel, despite similar conditions, the number of deaths from terrorism decreased by 5% in 2024. In several African countries, terrorism is virtually nonexistent. However, it is Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger—countries that made a sharp turn away from postcolonial dependence—that have found themselves at the epicentre of international terrorist attacks. This latest surge coincided with the rise of military regimes advocating for sovereignty and liberation from foreign influence. Is this a coincidence?

Western analysts attribute the increase in terrorism to the withdrawal of French and UN peacekeeping forces, and, in the case of Niger, U.S. troops as well. However, it was the inefficiency of the French military mission that became one of the reasons for its expulsion from the Sahel. Regional leaders are increasingly vocal about their desire for full independence. According to an IEP report, anti-French sentiment in the region is growing, with 59% of Malians holding negative views toward their former colonizer. Similar trends are observed in Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Guinea, Benin, Togo, Senegal, and Mauritania. Amid the declining trust in Europe, there is a rise in sympathies toward Russia and the United States, reflecting tectonic shifts in the region's geopolitical preferences.

Gold and blood

In the modern world, competition for natural resources has sharply intensified, and this rivalry has become one of the key drivers of rising conflicts. This is particularly evident in Africa, one of the wealthiest resource-rich regions on the planet. In 2012, a major gold vein was discovered in Sudan, covering a significant part of the Sahel. This coincided with the escalation of terrorist violence in the region.

Radical groups require funding to sustain their activities, and some international corporations do not shy away from using illegally mined or smuggled gold, which generates enormous profits. Terrorist attacks weaken state control, including oversight of national natural resources. While militant groups themselves rarely engage in mining, they impose unofficial taxes on gold miners.

"Gold is central to the conflict dynamics in some of these areas," notes the IEP report. Since 2018, Burkina Faso has seen a sharp increase in attacks on artisanal gold mining sites. The areas of heightened terrorist activity in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger largely coincide with the map of gold deposits.

In January 2025, Malian authorities accused the Canadian company Barrick Gold, one of the world's largest industry players, of failing to meet its obligations and confiscated three tonnes of gold.

The Sahel is also rich in rare earth metals, whose demand has surged amid the global shift to “green energy”. A fierce race for access to these resources is unfolding in the region. Niger, for example, ranks seventh in the world for uranium production. For years, French companies acquired uranium at just $11 per pound, while market prices ranged from $56 to $140. Meanwhile, 40% of France's nuclear power plants ran on Nigerien uranium, while only 20% of Niger’s own population had access to electricity. Today, the country’s new military leadership is striving to change this unjust model. Coincidentally or not, in 2024, Niger recorded the highest number of military personnel killed by terrorists—499 in total.

Amid this shift, several Sahelian states are increasingly considering Chinese and other foreign investments in the mining sector as more beneficial. In Mali, China has already established a lithium processing plant and secured licenses for the exploration of gold, copper, nickel, and other strategic resources.

International terrorism in the region is further fueled by global geopolitical conflicts. The confrontation between Ukraine and Russia has also extended to the Sahel. Ukrainian military intelligence has reportedly supported Tuareg rebels, who launched a major operation against Russia’s African Corps in Mali. Following its Syrian campaign, Russia has placed significant strategic importance on its airbase in Bamako, the Malian capital, which came under attack by JNIM militants in September 2024.

But there is also good news. Over the past year, Burkina Faso has seen a significant decline in terrorist activity: the number of attacks dropped by 57%, while fatalities decreased by 21%. The government of Captain Ibrahim Traoré took decisive security measures following the tragic events of August 2024, when JNIM militants massacred between 200 and 600 people in the village of Barsalogho—including civilians, soldiers, and members of the Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland, among them women and children. Since then, terrorist activity in the country has sharply declined.

As part of its Global Security Initiative, China has pledged 1 billion yuan (approximately $136 million) to train 7,000 military and police personnel to enhance stability across the African continent. In the end, only coordinated international efforts and the strengthening of local governance institutions can put a stop to the growing violence and hatred—not just in Africa, but across the world.