Is Arestovych Formula real? Exchange of annexed lands for Ukraine's membership in NATO

In an interview on July 16, former assistant to the chief of staff of the President of Ukraine, Oleksii Arestovych, suggested that the formula for exchanging annexed territories for Ukraine's membership in NATO is the most acceptable today. This statement, made by a popular blogger and expert raised a very short-term wave of both indignation and approval, which, however, quickly faded. Below we will try to analyze this formula from the point of view of its feasibility and benefit for all participants in the conflict.

Historical parallels

So, the exchange formula, which was called the FRG (Federal Republic of Germany) formula, in brief, is as follows. Ukraine gives the annexed lands to Russia in exchange for an accelerated admission to NATO.

Why the German formula? First of all, Germany after the Second World War was also divided. That part of it that was occupied by the USA, Great Britain and France shortly after the end of the war was united and made up the Federal Republic of Germany, the second half, occupied by the USSR, formed the German Democratic Republic.

As we know FRG became a member of NATO in 1955 and remains its member today as a unified Germany. Both of these halves existed separately until 1991, when, after the collapse of the USSR, both parts of Germany finally united into a single state. By analogy, after the annexed territories (about 20% of the territory of Ukraine) will go to Russia, and the rest will join NATO, negotiations on the fate of Crimea and other annexed territories will continue and, in the future, they may return to Ukraine by peaceful means.

Possibility of implementation

Let us consider the possibility of implementing this formula from the point of view of the situation around the conflict both on the battlefields and in the political plane.

Let's start with the fact that the conflict has been dragging on for a long 537 days. Both sides lost an incredible amount of manpower and equipment. There are casualties among the civilian population, especially Ukrainian. Such prolongation of the conflict primarily does not suit Russia for several reasons.

Firstly, this conflict has never been called a war by Russia. The name "special operation" never implies military operations that have been going on for years. A “special operation” that has lasted for years is a failed special operation, and this stigma will undoubtedly be associated with the current leadership of Russia.

Secondly, although Russia is a self-sufficient state, it cannot and is unlikely to want to be in the role of North Korea and be cut off from the cultural and economic space of the United States, Europe and the West as a whole. And the situation is far from rosy, the disabled SWIFT, the lack of licensed software, Western cars and other equipment undoubtedly led to a deterioration in the standard of living of the Russian population and weakened some industries.

The impact of the conflict on Ukraine is even stronger, the country is losing thousands of working-age lives not only on the battlefields but also due to mass immigration outside the country. A blow was dealt to one of the key areas of the economy - agriculture, which was especially affected after the recent failure of the grain deal. A powerful blow was dealt to the country's energy sector (the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was captured), many machine-building and other industrial enterprises are constant targets for Russian "zircons", "calibres" and other deadly projectiles.

As for the West, it only benefits from this conflict by revitalizing its defence industry and turning the battlefields in Ukraine into a testing ground for the latest weapons and a disposal boiler for obsolete samples.

China and Iran, like the West, receive approximately the same benefits and hope to deepen cooperation even after the end of the conflict, acquiring the status of "true friends"

What will the parties to the agreement get?

So, what will the parties to the conflict gain from the formula of exchanging territories for NATO membership?

For Russia, this is to finally declare the “successful” end of the “special operation” and the achievement of all its goals. This is an opportunity for V. Putin to emerge from the conflict as a winner, which is especially important given the failed attempts by the West to destabilize the situation in the country from within. It will also be the beginning of a negotiation process with the West and attempts to establish dialogue and cooperation from almost zero.

For Ukraine, this is an opportunity to finally take a breath and not be afraid of new attacks from an overly aggressive neighbour. Considering that the country will not lose access to the Black Sea and will be able to clearly build its guidelines towards Europe and the West, this agreement, if it takes place, can be considered a successful way out of the current difficult situation.

What will happen if the parties fail to reach an agreement in the near future? The long-term debilitating conflict will continue with heavy losses until the sponsors of the war - the West and China begin to feel the economic consequences of the war or the threat of the direct participation of their own armed forces in the fighting on the fronts.

One thing is clear today that the sponsors' problems described above do not manifest themselves very strongly, from which it can be assumed that the conflict will drag on for an indefinite period.